TURKEY 1. LIG
19.04.2026 13:00
Spoi?nt I?nsaat Ümrani?yespor Stadyumu
Referee: R. Yorgancilar
Ümraniyespor
Match Timeline
Vanspor FK
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
46'
E. Bars ↔ Xesc
Vanspor FK
🔄
46'
A. Traore ↔ M. Ozcan
Vanspor FK
VAR
52'
Ogulcan Caglayan
Vanspor FK
60'
M. Ozcan
Vanspor FK
🔄
64'
T. Kosoko ↔ C. Soukou
Ümraniyespor
71'
E. Hoti · Assist: Y. D. Sas
Ümraniyespor
🟨
73'
Jurgen Bardhi
Ümraniyespor
🔄
77'
Benny ↔ B. Ekincier
Ümraniyespor
🔄
77'
J. Bardhi ↔ K. Aktas
Ümraniyespor
🔄
80'
B. C. Kara ↔ A. Yildrim
Vanspor FK
🔄
81'
O. Caglayan ↔ M. Coksu
Vanspor FK
84'
S. Hostikka · Assist: M. Coksu
Vanspor FK
🔄
87'
B. Celik ↔ T. Ozdemir
Ümraniyespor
🔄
87'
M. Eser ↔ O. Ugur
Ümraniyespor
🔄
90+2'
S. Hostikka ↔ Z. Jevsenak
Vanspor FK

Ümraniyespor vs Vanspor FK Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 52%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 52.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68.8%
-
BTTS BTTS No
52%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
52.9%
-
Probability Distribution
Ümraniyespor Win 68.8%
Draw 5.4%
Vanspor FK Win 25.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ümraniyespor1.18
Vanspor FK1.33
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor
WWDLW
42 GF / 44 GA
Vanspor FK Vanspor FK
WLDWL
48 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
1.2
Average Goals Scored
1.37
1.26
Average Goals Conceded
1.14
14
BTTS Yes
16
14
Over 2.5
17
4.06
Shots on Goal
4.2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ümraniyespor Ümraniyespor 35 matches
Vanspor FK Vanspor FK 35 matches
Ümraniyespor Statistic Vanspor FK
12 Wins 12
7 Draws 10
16 Losses 13
42 Goals For 48
44 Goals Against 40
1.2 Avg Goals Scored 1.37
1.26 Avg Goals Conceded 1.14
14 BTTS Yes 16
23 Over 1.5 23
14 Over 2.5 17
9 Over 3.5 9
10 Clean Sheets 10
13 Failed To Score 14
4.06 Shots On Goal 4.2
9.66 Total Shots 11.51
3.91 Corners 4.2
46.5% Ball Possession 55.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with Vanspor FK's more proactive style and Ümraniyespor's more cautious structure suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Vanspor FK. Vanspor FK arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Ümraniyespor expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Vanspor FK in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Vanspor FK having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Ümraniyespor Analysis

Ümraniyespor sit 14 with 43 points after 35 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 12 wins, 7 draws, and 16 defeats, and the 40:42 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on B. Celik (12 goals), Benny (6 goals), Jurgen Bardhi (5 goals), with creative support from Benny (7 assists), B. Celik (4 assists), Atalay Babacan (4 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Vanspor FK Analysis

Vanspor FK sit 12 with 46 points after 35 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 12 wins, 10 draws, and 13 defeats, and the 48:40 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Bikoue (15 goals), Jefferson (5 goals), Xesc (5 goals), with creative support from Bikoue (6 assists), Jefferson (4 assists), Emir Bars (4 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 4 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Ümraniyespor won 3 times, Vanspor FK won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:3 from Ümraniyespor's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.6%)
Predicted formations: Ümraniyespor 4-3-3 / Vanspor FK 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Ümraniyespor wins 3, draws 0, Vanspor FK wins 1

Standings

1. Lig
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 23 12 3 82:27 55 81
D D D W W
2 38 21 11 6 81:42 39 74
D D L D D
3 38 21 11 6 81:35 46 74
L D L W W
4 38 21 8 9 63:39 24 71
W W L W D
5 38 18 10 10 71:39 32 64
L W W L D
6 38 16 15 7 58:33 25 63
L D W D D
7 38 16 12 10 73:43 30 60
L W W L D
8 38 16 12 10 47:34 13 60
W D W D D
9 38 16 7 15 57:56 1 55
W L W W W
10 38 14 11 13 47:43 4 53
L W L L W
11 38 13 13 12 57:55 2 52
W W W W L
12 38 15 7 16 44:44 0 52
W W L W D
13 38 13 11 14 52:54 -2 50
D L D W L
14 38 13 10 15 52:47 5 49
L L W L W
15 38 14 6 18 61:57 4 48
W L W L L
16 38 13 7 18 47:51 -4 46
L W L D W
17 38 11 6 21 44:75 -31 39
L W L D L
18 38 8 10 20 45:72 -27 34
L L D L L
19 38 2 8 28 33:102 -69 14
W L D L W
20 38 1 3 34 22:169 -147 -57
L L L L L
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