ITALY SERIE A
--.--.---- --:--
Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli
Referee: D. Di Marco
Udinese
Match Timeline
Parma
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
46'
M. Pellegrino ↔ N. Elphege
Parma
51'
N. Elphege · Assist: G. Strefezza
Parma
🔄
64'
J. Piotrowski ↔ I. Gueye
Udinese
🔄
64'
H. Kamara ↔ J. Arizala
Udinese
🔄
66'
G. Strefezza ↔ J. Ondrejka
Parma
🔄
66'
A. Bernabe ↔ C. Ordonez
Parma
🟨
70'
Nicolò Zaniolo
Udinese
🔄
72'
H. Nicolussi Caviglia ↔ N. Estevez
Parma
🔄
73'
J. Ekkelenkamp ↔ A. Buksa
Udinese
🔄
73'
K. Ehizibue ↔ O. Zarraga
Udinese
🔄
75'
A. Ndiaye ↔ S. Britschgi
Parma
🔄
81'
T. Kristensen ↔ B. Mlacic
Udinese
🟨
84'
Jesper Karlstrom
Udinese

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 52.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 56.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.1%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
52.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
56.4%
-
Probability Distribution
Udinese Win 57.1%
Draw 13.6%
Parma Win 29.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Udinese1.22
Parma1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Udinese Udinese
WWDLW
42 GF / 45 GA
Parma Parma
WLDWL
28 GF / 44 GA
Key Stats
1.2
Average Goals Scored
0.8
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
1.26
17
BTTS Yes
16
17
Over 2.5
12
3.91
Shots on Goal
3.11

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Udinese Udinese 35 matches
Parma Parma 35 matches
Udinese Statistic Parma
14 Wins 9
7 Draws 13
14 Losses 13
42 Goals For 28
45 Goals Against 44
1.2 Avg Goals Scored 0.8
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 1.26
17 BTTS Yes 16
26 Over 1.5 23
17 Over 2.5 12
7 Over 3.5 6
10 Clean Sheets 11
9 Failed To Score 14
3.91 Shots On Goal 3.11
11.34 Total Shots 11.09
4.14 Corners 3.91
45.3% Ball Possession 44.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Udinese expected to line up in 3-1-4-2 and Parma in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Parma having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Parma. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Udinese Analysis

From their first 32 matches, Udinese have collected 43 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. Their overall return of 12 wins, 7 draws, and 13 losses with goals at 38:42 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Keinan Davis (10 goals), J. Ekkelenkamp (5 goals), Nicolò Zaniolo (5 goals), with creative support from Nicolò Zaniolo (6 assists), Keinan Davis (3 assists), A. Atta (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with K. Davis, A. Zanoli, J. Zemura unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Parma Analysis

Parma sit 14 with 36 points after 32 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 12 draws, and 12 defeats, and the 23:40 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on M. Pellegrino (8 goals), A. Bernabe (3 goals), Enrico Del Prato (2 goals), with creative support from A. Benedyczak (2 assists), E. Valeri (2 assists), Sascha Britschgi (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with B. Cremaschi, M. Frigan unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Udinese won 7 times, Parma won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:21 from Udinese's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.4%)
Predicted formations: Udinese 3-1-4-2 / Parma 3-5-2
Missing players: Udinese 3, Parma 2
H2H summary: Udinese wins 7, draws 2, Parma wins 6
Stats
Udinese Udinese
Parma Parma
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
9
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
4
Blocked Shots
4
10 Corner Kicks 5
11 Fouls 8
2 Offsides 1
57% Ball Possession 43%
16 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Goal 1
9 Shots off Goal 5
4 Blocked Shots 4
10 Shots insidebox 8
6 Shots outsidebox 2
0 Goalkeeper Saves 3
441 Total passes 349
386 Passes accurate 292
1.13 expected_goals 1.23
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Udinese
Formation
Parma
M. Okoye
M. Okoye
T. Kristensen
T. Kristensen
C. Kabasele
C. Kabasele
O. Solet
O. Solet
K. Ehizibue
K. Ehizibue
J. Karlstrom
J. Karlstrom
J. Piotrowski
J. Piotrowski
H. Kamara
H. Kamara
N. Zaniolo
N. Zaniolo
J. Ekkelenkamp
J. Ekkelenkamp
A. Atta
A. Atta
Z. Suzuki
Z. Suzuki
A. Circati
A. Circati
M. Troilo
M. Troilo
A. Ndiaye
A. Ndiaye
E. Delprato
E. Delprato
H. Nicolussi Caviglia
H. Nicolussi Caviglia
M. Keita
M. Keita
E. Valeri
E. Valeri
A. Bernabe
A. Bernabe
G. Strefezza
🎯
G. Strefezza
M. Pellegrino
M. Pellegrino
Udinese 3-4-1-2
Starting XI
40
M. Okoye
G
31
T. Kristensen
↓ 81'
D
27
C. Kabasele
D
28
O. Solet
D
19
K. Ehizibue
↓ 73'
M
8
J. Karlstrom
🟨 84'
M
24
J. Piotrowski
↓ 64'
M
11
H. Kamara
↓ 64'
M
10
N. Zaniolo
🟨 70'
F
32
J. Ekkelenkamp
↓ 73'
F
14
A. Atta
F
Substitutes
93
D. Padelli
G
90
R. Sava
G
18
A. Buksa
↑ 73'
F
15
V. Bayo
F
38
L. Miller
M
22
B. Mlacic
↑ 81'
D
6
O. Zarraga
↑ 73'
M
7
I. Gueye
↑ 64'
F
20
J. Arizala
↑ 64'
M
29
A. Camara
M
Parma 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
31
Z. Suzuki
G
39
A. Circati
D
37
M. Troilo
D
3
A. Ndiaye
↓ 75'
D
15
E. Delprato
M
41
H. Nicolussi Caviglia
↓ 72'
M
16
M. Keita
M
14
E. Valeri
M
10
A. Bernabe
↓ 66'
F
7
G. Strefezza
🎯 51' ↓ 66'
F
9
M. Pellegrino
↓ 46'
F
Substitutes
40
E. Corvi
G
66
F. Rinaldi
G
8
N. Estevez
↑ 72'
M
11
P. Almqvist
F
21
G. Oristanio
M
17
J. Ondrejka
↑ 66'
F
24
C. Ordonez
↑ 66'
M
23
N. Elphege
⚽ 51' ↑ 46'
F
5
L. Valenti
D
22
O. Sorensen
M
29
F. Carboni
D
27
S. Britschgi
↑ 75'
D
Last matches: Udinese
08.08.26
Fri
Udinese
Barcelona
1
0
W
08.08.26
Fri
Udinese
Nottingham Forest
1
0
W
02.08.26
Fri
Udinese
Trabzonspor
0
1
L
01.08.26
Fri
Udinese
FSV Mainz 05
3
3
D
28.07.26
Fri
Udinese
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
1
2
L
24.07.26
Fri
Udinese
Swansea
0
2
L
18.07.26
Fri
Udinese
Istra 1961
2
2
D
24.05.26
Ser
Udinese
Napoli
0
1
L
17.05.26
Ser
Udinese
Cremonese
0
1
L
09.05.26
Ser
Udinese
Cagliari
2
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Udinese
Torino
2
0
W
27.04.26
Ser
Udinese
Lazio
3
3
D
11.04.26
Ser
Udinese
AC Milan
3
0
W
06.04.26
Ser
Udinese
Como
0
0
D
20.03.26
Ser
Udinese
Genoa
2
0
W
14.03.26
Ser
Udinese
Juventus
0
1
L
07.03.26
Ser
Udinese
Atalanta
2
2
D
02.03.26
Ser
Udinese
Fiorentina
3
0
W
23.02.26
Ser
Udinese
Bologna
0
1
L
15.02.26
Ser
Udinese
Sassuolo
1
2
L
Last matches: Parma
09.08.26
Fri
Parma
Sampdoria
0
2
L
02.08.26
Fri
Parma
Iraklis 1908
1
1
D
30.07.26
Fri
Parma
Arezzo
1
1
D
25.07.26
Fri
Parma
Sassuolo
0
0
D
25.07.26
Fri
Parma
Trento
1
1
D
24.05.26
Ser
Parma
Sassuolo
1
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Parma
Como
0
1
L
10.05.26
Ser
Parma
AS Roma
2
3
L
03.05.26
Ser
Parma
Inter
0
2
L
25.04.26
Ser
Parma
Pisa
1
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
Parma
Napoli
1
1
D
04.04.26
Ser
Parma
Lazio
1
1
D
21.03.26
Ser
Parma
Cremonese
0
2
L
13.03.26
Ser
Parma
Torino
1
4
L
08.03.26
Ser
Parma
Fiorentina
0
0
D
27.02.26
Ser
Parma
Cagliari
1
1
D
22.02.26
Ser
Parma
AC Milan
1
0
W
15.02.26
Ser
Parma
Hellas Verona
2
1
W
08.02.26
Ser
Parma
Bologna
1
0
W
01.02.26
Ser
Parma
Juventus
1
4
L
H2H: Udinese vs Parma
18.04.26
H2H
Udinese
Parma
0
1
L
29.11.25
H2H
Parma
Udinese
0
2
W
01.03.25
H2H
Udinese
Parma
1
0
W
16.09.24
H2H
Parma
Udinese
2
3
W
21.02.21
H2H
Parma
Udinese
2
2
D
18.10.20
H2H
Udinese
Parma
3
2
W
26.01.20
H2H
Parma
Udinese
2
0
L
01.09.19
H2H
Udinese
Parma
1
3
L
19.01.19
H2H
Udinese
Parma
1
2
L
19.08.18
H2H
Parma
Udinese
2
2
D
08.04.15
H2H
Parma
Udinese
1
0
L
29.09.14
H2H
Udinese
Parma
4
2
W
26.01.14
H2H
Parma
Udinese
1
0
L
01.09.13
H2H
Udinese
Parma
3
1
W
14.04.13
H2H
Parma
Udinese
0
3
W
Last matches: Udinese
08.08.26
Fri
Udinese
Barcelona
1
0
W
08.08.26
Fri
Udinese
Nottingham Forest
1
0
W
01.08.26
Fri
Udinese
FSV Mainz 05
3
3
D
28.07.26
Fri
Udinese
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
1
2
L
18.07.26
Fri
Udinese
Istra 1961
2
2
D
17.05.26
Ser
Udinese
Cremonese
0
1
L
02.05.26
Ser
Udinese
Torino
2
0
W
06.04.26
Ser
Udinese
Como
0
0
D
14.03.26
Ser
Udinese
Juventus
0
1
L
02.03.26
Ser
Udinese
Fiorentina
3
0
W
15.02.26
Ser
Udinese
Sassuolo
1
2
L
02.02.26
Ser
Udinese
AS Roma
1
0
W
17.01.26
Ser
Udinese
Inter
0
1
L
10.01.26
Ser
Udinese
Pisa
2
2
D
27.12.25
Ser
Udinese
Lazio
1
1
D
14.12.25
Ser
Udinese
Napoli
1
0
W
08.12.25
Ser
Udinese
Genoa
1
2
L
22.11.25
Ser
Udinese
Bologna
0
3
L
01.11.25
Ser
Udinese
Atalanta
1
0
W
25.10.25
Ser
Udinese
Lecce
3
2
W
H2H at home: Udinese
18.04.26
H2H
Udinese
Parma
0
1
L
01.03.25
H2H
Udinese
Parma
1
0
W
18.10.20
H2H
Udinese
Parma
3
2
W
01.09.19
H2H
Udinese
Parma
1
3
L
19.01.19
H2H
Udinese
Parma
1
2
L
29.09.14
H2H
Udinese
Parma
4
2
W
01.09.13
H2H
Udinese
Parma
3
1
W
Last matches: Parma
25.07.26
Fri
Parma
Sassuolo
0
0
D
25.07.26
Fri
Parma
Trento
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Parma
Como
0
1
L
03.05.26
Ser
Parma
Inter
0
2
L
04.04.26
Ser
Parma
Lazio
1
1
D
13.03.26
Ser
Parma
Torino
1
4
L
08.03.26
Ser
Parma
Fiorentina
0
0
D
22.02.26
Ser
Parma
AC Milan
1
0
W
08.02.26
Ser
Parma
Bologna
1
0
W
25.01.26
Ser
Parma
Atalanta
0
4
L
14.01.26
Ser
Parma
Napoli
0
0
D
11.01.26
Ser
Parma
Lecce
2
1
W
03.01.26
Ser
Parma
Sassuolo
1
1
D
08.12.25
Ser
Parma
Pisa
1
0
W
04.12.25
Cop
Parma
Bologna
1
2
L
23.11.25
Ser
Parma
Hellas Verona
2
1
W
29.10.25
Ser
Parma
AS Roma
1
2
L
19.10.25
Ser
Parma
Genoa
0
0
D
21.09.25
Ser
Parma
Cremonese
0
0
D
13.09.25
Ser
Parma
Cagliari
0
2
L
H2H away: Parma
18.04.26
H2H
Udinese
Parma
0
1
W
01.03.25
H2H
Udinese
Parma
1
0
L
18.10.20
H2H
Udinese
Parma
3
2
L
01.09.19
H2H
Udinese
Parma
1
3
W
19.01.19
H2H
Udinese
Parma
1
2
W
29.09.14
H2H
Udinese
Parma
4
2
L
01.09.13
H2H
Udinese
Parma
3
1
L

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 27 6 5 89:35 54 87
D D W W D
2 38 23 7 8 58:36 22 76
W W L D W
3 38 23 4 11 59:31 28 73
W W W W W
4 38 20 11 7 65:29 36 71
W W W D W
5 38 20 10 8 53:35 18 70
L W L L D
6 38 19 12 7 61:34 27 69
D L W D D
7 38 15 14 9 51:36 15 59
D L W D L
8 38 16 8 14 49:46 3 56
D W W D L
9 38 14 12 12 41:40 1 54
W L L W D
10 38 14 8 16 45:48 -3 50
L L W W D
11 38 14 7 17 46:50 -4 49
L L L W D
12 38 12 9 17 44:63 -19 45
D L W L D
13
Parma Away
38 11 12 15 28:46 -18 45
W L L L W
14 38 11 10 17 40:53 -13 43
W W L D W
15 38 9 15 14 41:50 -9 42
D W D L D
16 38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
L L D D L
17 38 10 8 20 28:50 -22 38
W W L W D
18 38 8 10 20 32:57 -25 34
L W W L L
19 38 3 12 23 25:61 -36 21
L D L D D
20 38 2 12 24 26:71 -45 18
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B

Missing Players

Udinese 3 missing
-
K. Davis
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
A. Zanoli
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
J. Zemura
Questionable Muscle Injury
OUT
Parma 2 missing
-
B. Cremaschi
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
M. Frigan
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT