ITALY › SERIE A
18.04.2026 13:00
Bluenergy Stadium - Stadio Friuli
Referee: D. Di Marco
Udinese
Match Timeline
Parma
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
46'
M. Pellegrino ↔ N. Elphege
Parma
⚽
51'
N. Elphege · Assist: G. Strefezza
Parma
🔄
64'
J. Piotrowski ↔ I. Gueye
Udinese
🔄
64'
H. Kamara ↔ J. Arizala
Udinese
🔄
66'
G. Strefezza ↔ J. Ondrejka
Parma
🔄
66'
A. Bernabe ↔ C. Ordonez
Parma
🟨
70'
Nicolò Zaniolo
Udinese
🔄
72'
H. Nicolussi Caviglia ↔ N. Estevez
Parma
🔄
73'
J. Ekkelenkamp ↔ A. Buksa
Udinese
🔄
73'
K. Ehizibue ↔ O. Zarraga
Udinese
🔄
75'
A. Ndiaye ↔ S. Britschgi
Parma
🔄
81'
T. Kristensen ↔ B. Mlacic
Udinese
🟨
84'
Jesper Karlstrom
Udinese

Udinese vs Parma Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 57.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 52.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 56.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
57.1%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
52.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
56.4%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Udinese Win 57.1%
Draw 13.6%
Parma Win 29.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Udinese1.22
Parma1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Udinese Udinese
WWDLW
42 GF / 45 GA
Parma Parma
WLDWL
28 GF / 44 GA
Key Stats
1.2
Average Goals Scored
0.8
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
1.26
17
BTTS Yes
16
17
Over 2.5
12
3.91
Shots on Goal
3.11

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Udinese Udinese 35 matches
Parma Parma 35 matches
Udinese Statistic Parma
14 Wins 9
7 Draws 13
14 Losses 13
42 Goals For 28
45 Goals Against 44
1.2 Avg Goals Scored 0.8
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 1.26
17 BTTS Yes 16
26 Over 1.5 23
17 Over 2.5 12
7 Over 3.5 6
10 Clean Sheets 11
9 Failed To Score 14
3.91 Shots On Goal 3.11
11.34 Total Shots 11.09
4.14 Corners 3.91
45.3% Ball Possession 44.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Both teams have notable availability concerns, so squad depth and in-game adjustments could matter more than usual. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Udinese expected to line up in 3-1-4-2 and Parma in 3-5-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Parma having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Parma. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Udinese Analysis

From their first 32 matches, Udinese have collected 43 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. Their overall return of 12 wins, 7 draws, and 13 losses with goals at 38:42 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Keinan Davis (10 goals), J. Ekkelenkamp (5 goals), Nicolò Zaniolo (5 goals), with creative support from Nicolò Zaniolo (6 assists), Keinan Davis (3 assists), A. Atta (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 5 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with K. Davis, A. Zanoli, J. Zemura unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Parma Analysis

Parma sit 14 with 36 points after 32 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 12 draws, and 12 defeats, and the 23:40 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on M. Pellegrino (8 goals), A. Bernabe (3 goals), Enrico Del Prato (2 goals), with creative support from A. Benedyczak (2 assists), E. Valeri (2 assists), Sascha Britschgi (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 5 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with B. Cremaschi, M. Frigan unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Udinese won 7 times, Parma won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 25:21 from Udinese's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.4%)
Predicted formations: Udinese 3-1-4-2 / Parma 3-5-2
Missing players: Udinese 3, Parma 2
H2H summary: Udinese wins 7, draws 2, Parma wins 6

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 27 6 5 89:35 54 87
D D W W D
2 38 23 7 8 58:36 22 76
W W L D W
3 38 23 4 11 59:31 28 73
W W W W W
4 38 20 11 7 65:29 36 71
W W W D W
5 38 20 10 8 53:35 18 70
L W L L D
6 38 19 12 7 61:34 27 69
D L W D D
7 38 15 14 9 51:36 15 59
D L W D L
8 38 16 8 14 49:46 3 56
D W W D L
9 38 14 12 12 41:40 1 54
W L L W D
10 38 14 8 16 45:48 -3 50
L L W W D
11 38 14 7 17 46:50 -4 49
L L L W D
12 38 12 9 17 44:63 -19 45
D L W L D
13
Parma Away
38 11 12 15 28:46 -18 45
W L L L W
14 38 11 10 17 40:53 -13 43
W W L D W
15 38 9 15 14 41:50 -9 42
D W D L D
16 38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
L L D D L
17 38 10 8 20 28:50 -22 38
W W L W D
18 38 8 10 20 32:57 -25 34
L W W L L
19 38 3 12 23 25:61 -36 21
L D L D D
20 38 2 12 24 26:71 -45 18
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B