PERU PRIMERA DIVISIóN
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio 25 de Noviembre
Referee: Kevin Ortega, Peru
UCV Moquegua
Match Timeline
Universitario
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
16'
Aldair Perleche
UCV Moquegua
🔄
21'
A. Perleche ↔ E. Montenegro
UCV Moquegua
🔄
46'
C. Fara ↔ A. Santamaria
Universitario
🟨
63'
Juan Diego Lojas
UCV Moquegua
🔄
67'
A. Davila ↔ N. Chavez
UCV Moquegua
🔄
67'
Bryan Angulo ↔ J. Collazos
UCV Moquegua
🔄
70'
J. Murrugarra ↔ P. Reyna
Universitario
🔄
77'
B. Reyna ↔ Miguel Silveira
Universitario
🔄
77'
S. Gassama ↔ A. Valera
Universitario
🔄
85'
C. Mejia ↔ C. Ramirez
UCV Moquegua
🔄
85'
Y. Zapata ↔ J. Jimenez
UCV Moquegua
🔄
89'
H. Ancajima ↔ J. Concha
Universitario

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 86.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.3%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
86.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
86.5%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
UCV Moquegua Win 55.3%
Draw 0%
Universitario Win 44.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
UCV Moquegua1.04
Universitario1.48
Recent Form (Last 5)
UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua
WWDLW
17 GF / 25 GA
Universitario Universitario
WLDWL
33 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.06
Average Goals Scored
1.43
1.56
Average Goals Conceded
1
8
BTTS Yes
11
11
Over 2.5
11
3.6
Shots on Goal
4.2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua 16 matches
Universitario Universitario 23 matches
UCV Moquegua Statistic Universitario
5 Wins 10
2 Draws 6
9 Losses 7
17 Goals For 33
25 Goals Against 23
1.06 Avg Goals Scored 1.43
1.56 Avg Goals Conceded 1
8 BTTS Yes 11
12 Over 1.5 15
11 Over 2.5 11
3 Over 3.5 6
3 Clean Sheets 9
6 Failed To Score 7
3.6 Shots On Goal 4.2
10.13 Total Shots 13.6
3.27 Corners 6.05
39.6% Ball Possession 52.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Universitario's more proactive style and UCV Moquegua's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. UCV Moquegua have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Universitario. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with UCV Moquegua expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Universitario in 3-1-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Universitario having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

UCV Moquegua Analysis

UCV Moquegua sit 11 with 17 points after 15 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 2 draws, and 8 defeats, and the 17:23 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Edgar Lastre (5 goals), J. Collazos (4 goals), C. Mejia (2 goals), with creative support from Edgar Lastre (3 assists), Ricardo Chipao  (2 assists), N. Chavez (2 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Universitario Analysis

Placed 4 with 25 points from 15 outings, Universitario continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, while the 22:14 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Valera (7 goals), Edison Flores (3 goals), C. Fara (2 goals), with creative support from J. Concha (5 assists), J. Carabali (3 assists), A. Polo (3 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, UCV Moquegua won 0 times, Universitario won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:0 from UCV Moquegua's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 0 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: UCV Moquegua 4-2-3-1 / Universitario 3-1-4-2
H2H summary: UCV Moquegua wins 0, draws 1, Universitario wins 0
Stats
UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua
Universitario Universitario
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
1
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
8
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
3
3 Corner Kicks 3
12 Fouls 7
0 Offsides 1
41% Ball Possession 59%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Goal 1
4 Shots off Goal 8
3 Blocked Shots 3
4 Shots insidebox 8
6 Shots outsidebox 4
1 Goalkeeper Saves 3
242 Total passes 352
176 Passes accurate 280
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

UCV Moquegua
Formation
Universitario
C. Grados
C. Grados
A. Perleche
A. Perleche
J. Lojas
J. Lojas
C. Enciso
C. Enciso
N. Amasifuen
N. Amasifuen
R. Chipao
R. Chipao
A. Davila
A. Davila
E. Lastre
E. Lastre
C. Mejia
C. Mejia
Y. Zapata
Y. Zapata
Bryan Angulo
Bryan Angulo
D. Romero
D. Romero
A. Corzo
A. Corzo
C. Fara
C. Fara
M. Di Benedetto
M. Di Benedetto
J. Castillo
J. Castillo
H. Ancajima
H. Ancajima
J. Murrugarra
J. Murrugarra
B. Reyna
B. Reyna
C. Inga
C. Inga
S. Gassama
S. Gassama
E. Flores
E. Flores
UCV Moquegua 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
C. Grados
G
4
A. Perleche
↓ 21' 🟨 16'
D
13
J. Lojas
3
C. Enciso
15
N. Amasifuen
D
25
R. Chipao
M
16
A. Davila
↓ 67'
M
7
E. Lastre
M
8
C. Mejia
↓ 85'
M
17
Y. Zapata
↓ 85'
M
11
Bryan Angulo
↓ 67'
F
Substitutes
29
R. Figueroa
G
88
R. Torres
M
10
N. Chavez
↑ 67'
90
J. Collazos
↑ 67'
F
22
E. Montenegro
↑ 21'
D
9
M. Negron
F
14
C. Ramirez
↑ 85'
6
J. Jimenez
↑ 85'
66
M. Panizo
D
Universitario 3-1-4-2
Starting XI
1
D. Romero
G
29
A. Corzo
D
2
C. Fara
↓ 46'
D
5
M. Di Benedetto
D
6
J. Castillo
M
26
H. Ancajima
↓ 89'
M
23
J. Murrugarra
↓ 70'
M
77
B. Reyna
↓ 77'
M
33
C. Inga
M
90
S. Gassama
↓ 77'
F
19
E. Flores
F
Substitutes
25
M. Vargas
G
4
A. Santamaria
↑ 46'
D
3
W. Riveros
D
16
M. Perez Guedes
M
30
L. Alzugaray
F
17
J. Concha
↑ 89'
M
99
Miguel Silveira
↑ 77'
M
14
P. Reyna
↑ 70'
D
20
A. Valera
↑ 77'
F
Last matches: UCV Moquegua
29.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Atletico Grau
0
1
L
17.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0
1
L
09.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
ADT
2
2
D
03.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Alianza Lima
1
2
L
25.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
FC Cajamarca
2
1
W
20.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Cienciano
1
2
L
14.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Juan Pablo II College
3
0
W
03.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Sporting Cristal
2
1
W
21.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Cusco
1
2
L
15.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Alianza Atletico
0
3
L
07.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Sport Huancayo
2
1
W
01.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Sport Boys
0
0
D
23.02.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
0
W
15.02.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
FBC Melgar
0
4
L
06.02.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
UTC Cajamarca
2
3
L
02.02.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Comerciantes Unidos
0
1
L
17.01.26
Fri
UCV Moquegua
FBC Melgar
0
2
L
Last matches: Universitario
31.05.26
Pri
Universitario
Sport Huancayo
2
1
W
27.05.26
CON
Universitario
Deportes Tolima
0
0
D
20.05.26
CON
Universitario
Club Nacional
0
0
D
16.05.26
Pri
Universitario
Atletico Grau
0
1
L
12.05.26
Pri
Universitario
Sport Boys
0
0
D
08.05.26
CON
Universitario
Coquimbo Unido
1
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
Universitario
Juan Pablo II College
4
1
W
30.04.26
CON
Universitario
Club Nacional
4
2
W
26.04.26
Pri
Universitario
Alianza Atletico
1
2
L
23.04.26
Pri
Universitario
Deportivo Garcilaso
4
1
W
19.04.26
Pri
Universitario
FBC Melgar
1
2
L
15.04.26
CON
Universitario
Coquimbo Unido
0
2
L
08.04.26
CON
Universitario
Deportes Tolima
0
0
D
05.04.26
Pri
Universitario
Alianza Lima
1
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
Universitario
Comerciantes Unidos
0
0
D
15.03.26
Pri
Universitario
UTC Cajamarca
2
0
W
08.03.26
Pri
Universitario
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1
3
L
01.03.26
Pri
Universitario
FC Cajamarca
1
0
W
21.02.26
Pri
Universitario
Sporting Cristal
2
2
D
14.02.26
Pri
Universitario
Cienciano
2
1
W
H2H: UCV Moquegua vs Universitario
23.05.26
H2H
UCV Moquegua
Universitario
0
0
D
Last matches: UCV Moquegua
09.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
ADT
2
2
D
25.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
FC Cajamarca
2
1
W
14.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Juan Pablo II College
3
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Cusco
1
2
L
07.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Sport Huancayo
2
1
W
23.02.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
0
W
06.02.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
UTC Cajamarca
2
3
L
H2H at home: UCV Moquegua
23.05.26
H2H
UCV Moquegua
Universitario
0
0
D
Last matches: Universitario
20.05.26
CON
Universitario
Club Nacional
0
0
D
12.05.26
Pri
Universitario
Sport Boys
0
0
D
08.05.26
CON
Universitario
Coquimbo Unido
1
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
Universitario
Juan Pablo II College
4
1
W
19.04.26
Pri
Universitario
FBC Melgar
1
2
L
08.04.26
CON
Universitario
Deportes Tolima
0
0
D
21.03.26
Pri
Universitario
Comerciantes Unidos
0
0
D
08.03.26
Pri
Universitario
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1
3
L
21.02.26
Pri
Universitario
Sporting Cristal
2
2
D
08.02.26
Pri
Universitario
Cusco
1
1
D
H2H away: Universitario
23.05.26
H2H
UCV Moquegua
Universitario
0
0
D

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 12 4 1 30:8 22 40
D W W D W
2 17 10 4 3 25:21 4 34
D L W D L
3 17 10 3 4 34:22 12 33
W D L W W
4 17 8 5 4 24:15 9 29
W D L D W
5 17 8 4 5 29:20 9 28
W D W D W
6 17 8 3 6 21:24 -3 27
W W L D D
7 17 7 5 5 21:18 3 26
W D W W W
8 17 5 6 6 20:18 2 21
L D W L W
9 17 5 6 6 18:20 -2 21
L D L D L
10 17 5 5 7 22:21 1 20
L L W D W
11 17 5 5 7 15:19 -4 20
W D W D L
12 17 5 4 8 28:30 -2 19
L W L D D
13 17 4 6 7 21:26 -5 18
D D L L L
14 17 5 3 9 17:24 -7 18
L D L D L
15 17 4 5 8 23:28 -5 17
D D W W W
16 17 4 4 9 12:18 -6 16
W L W L L
17 17 4 4 9 21:31 -10 16
L D L W L
18 17 4 4 9 22:40 -18 16
L D L L L