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08.10.2026 18:00
Estadio 25 de Noviembre
Referee: Edwin Ordonez

UCV Moquegua vs Cienciano Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 59.7%
Odds 2.16
BTTS
Yes
Probability 76.7%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81%
Odds 1.88
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
59.7%
2.16 ▥
BTTS Yes
76.7%
1.73 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81%
1.88 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.38 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.50 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
UCV Moquegua Win 20.6%
Draw 19.7%
Cienciano Win 59.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
UCV Moquegua1.1
Cienciano1.62
Recent Form (Last 5)
UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua
WWDLW
24 GF / 43 GA
Cienciano Cienciano
WLDWL
47 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
0.86
Average Goals Scored
1.68
1.54
Average Goals Conceded
1.46
12
BTTS Yes
19
15
Over 2.5
17
3.3
Shots on Goal
5.48

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua 28 matches
Cienciano Cienciano 28 matches
UCV Moquegua Statistic Cienciano
6 Wins 12
7 Draws 6
15 Losses 10
24 Goals For 47
43 Goals Against 41
0.86 Avg Goals Scored 1.68
1.54 Avg Goals Conceded 1.46
12 BTTS Yes 19
20 Over 1.5 23
15 Over 2.5 17
6 Over 3.5 10
7 Clean Sheets 4
13 Failed To Score 6
3.3 Shots On Goal 5.48
10.3 Total Shots 15.7
3.26 Corners 5.48
39.8% Ball Possession 52%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Cienciano's more proactive style and UCV Moquegua's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with UCV Moquegua expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Cienciano in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Cienciano having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Cienciano. Cienciano carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 7 with 41 points while UCV Moquegua sit 17 on 25, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

UCV Moquegua Analysis

UCV Moquegua approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 25 points from 27 matches. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 7 draws, and 14 defeats, and the 24:41 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on E. Lastre (6 goals), R. Chipao (3 goals), B. Angulo (3 goals), with creative support from E. Lastre (5 assists), Y. Zapata (4 assists), N. Amasifuén (2 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, which indicates an unclear split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Cienciano Analysis

Cienciano sit 7 with 41 points after 27 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 12 wins, 5 draws, and 10 defeats, and the 46:40 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on C. Garcés (5 goals), Alejandro Hohberg (5 goals), M. Succar (3 goals), with creative support from C. Garcés (2 assists), Alejandro Hohberg (2 assists), C. Souza (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, UCV Moquegua won 0 times, Cienciano won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:2 from UCV Moquegua's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.3%)
Predicted formations: UCV Moquegua 4-4-2 / Cienciano 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: UCV Moquegua wins 0, draws 0, Cienciano wins 1

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 16 8 3 44:18 26 56
W L D L D
2 27 14 7 6 43:31 12 49
L W D W W
3 27 14 6 7 39:24 15 48
W L W W W
4 27 13 7 7 45:29 16 46
D W W L D
5 27 14 3 10 40:38 2 45
W L W W L
6 27 12 6 9 36:45 -9 42
D L L L L
7 27 12 5 10 46:40 6 41
D L W L L
8 27 11 7 9 40:35 5 40
W L W W W
9 27 11 5 11 48:40 8 38
W W W L L
10 27 10 8 9 29:26 3 38
D W L W W
11 27 10 5 12 37:44 -7 35
W W W W L
12 27 9 7 11 42:52 -10 34
W W D W W
13 27 9 5 13 26:31 -5 32
L W L W W
14 27 7 9 11 35:38 -3 30
L L D L W
15 27 7 6 14 41:52 -11 27
L W L W L
16 27 6 7 14 29:42 -13 25
W L L L L
17 27 6 7 14 24:41 -17 25
L L L L W
18 27 4 8 15 32:50 -18 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2