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14.11.2026 21:00
Estadio 25 de Noviembre

UCV Moquegua vs Atletico Grau Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 72.9%
Odds 1.14
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds 1.95
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
72.9%
1.14 ▥
BTTS Yes
58.2%
1.83 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
1.95 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
68.7%
1.83 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.50 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
UCV Moquegua Win 44.8%
Draw 28%
Atletico Grau Win 27.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
UCV Moquegua0.97
Atletico Grau1.17
Recent Form (Last 5)
UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua
D D L L W
3 GF / 5 GA
Atletico Grau Atletico Grau
W L L D L
6 GF / 10 GA
Key Stats
0.79
Average Goals Scored
0.97
1.47
Average Goals Conceded
1.24
13
BTTS Yes
13
16
Over 2.5
14
3.33
Shots on Goal
4.03

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua 34 matches
Atletico Grau Atletico Grau 33 matches
UCV Moquegua Statistic Atletico Grau
7 Wins 10
9 Draws 7
18 Losses 16
27 Goals For 32
50 Goals Against 41
0.79 Avg Goals Scored 0.97
1.47 Avg Goals Conceded 1.24
13 BTTS Yes 13
23 Over 1.5 18
16 Over 2.5 14
7 Over 3.5 10
9 Clean Sheets 11
17 Failed To Score 14
3.33 Shots On Goal 4.03
10.7 Total Shots 11.58
3.48 Corners 3.88
41.7% Ball Possession 44.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Atletico Grau. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

UCV Moquegua Analysis

UCV Moquegua sit 16 with 29 points after 32 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 7 wins, 8 draws, and 17 losses, together with goals at 25:46, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through E. Lastre (6 goals), B. Angulo (4 goals), R. Chipao (3 goals), with creative support from E. Lastre (5 assists), Y. Zapata (4 assists), N. Amasifuén (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of - wins, - draws, and - losses points to an unclear split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Atletico Grau Analysis

Atletico Grau sit 13 with 37 points after 33 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 10 wins, 7 draws, and 16 losses, together with goals at 32:41, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through A. Fernández (6 goals), P. Álvarez (3 goals), A. Vásquez (3 goals), with creative support from R. Guarderas (3 assists), G. Alfaro (2 assists), P. de la Cruz (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed - wins, - draws, and - losses, a return that supports an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, UCV Moquegua won 0 times, Atletico Grau won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 0:1 from UCV Moquegua's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (72.9%)
Predicted formations: UCV Moquegua 4-2-3-1 / Atletico Grau 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: UCV Moquegua wins 0, draws 0, Atletico Grau wins 1

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 33 20 9 4 54:24 30 69
D W L W W
2 33 17 10 6 59:39 20 61
D D W W W
3 33 16 9 8 56:38 18 57
W L D W W
4 33 16 7 10 50:35 15 55
D W L W L
5 33 15 6 12 63:48 15 51
D W W L W
6 33 16 3 14 46:47 -1 51
L L W W L
7 33 15 5 13 54:46 8 50
L L W L W
8 33 15 5 13 48:49 -1 50
W W L W W
9 33 14 7 12 49:48 1 49
L W W L L
10 33 13 9 11 40:52 -12 48
D D L L W
11 33 12 10 11 37:35 2 46
D D W W L
12 33 11 8 14 48:59 -11 41
L L W L W
13 33 8 13 12 44:47 -3 37
D D D W L
14 33 10 7 16 32:41 -9 37
W L L D L
15 33 7 11 15 36:48 -12 32
D D W D L
16 33 8 7 18 46:65 -19 31
W L L L L
17 33 7 9 17 27:48 -21 30
D D L L W
18 33 5 9 19 38:58 -20 19
D L W L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2