PERU PRIMERA DIVISIóN
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio 25 de Noviembre
Referee: V. Cori
UCV Moquegua
Match Timeline
ADT
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
17'
H. Rengifo ↔ J. Bauman
ADT
21'
J. Collazos · Assist: E. Lastre
UCV Moquegua
🔄
24'
J. Granda ↔ C. Ramirez
UCV Moquegua
🟨
34'
John Narváez
ADT
🟨
42'
Edgar Lastre
UCV Moquegua
🔄
46'
N. Rengifo ↔ J. Rojas
ADT
🔄
46'
A. Gutierrez ↔ L. Gomez
ADT
47'
J. Rojas
ADT
🔄
56'
N. Chavez ↔ Bryan Angulo
UCV Moquegua
🔄
56'
A. Davila ↔ Y. Zapata
UCV Moquegua
🟨
58'
Ricardo Chipao 
UCV Moquegua
🔄
71'
L. Perez ↔ A. Ojeda
ADT
🟨
87'
Jordan Guivin
ADT
🔄
87'
J. Collazos ↔ E. Montenegro
UCV Moquegua
🟨
90'
Yorman Zapata
UCV Moquegua
🟨
90+7'
Jhair Soto
ADT
🟨
90+6'
Luis Gomez
ADT
🟨
90'
Víctor Cedrón
ADT
🔄
90+5'
↔ L. E. Benites Vargas
ADT
90'
L. Gomez
ADT
90'
Bryan Angulo
UCV Moquegua

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 67.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 82.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
67.4%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
82.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87.6%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
79.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
UCV Moquegua Win 67.4%
Draw 0%
ADT Win 32.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
UCV Moquegua1.13
ADT1.35
Recent Form (Last 5)
UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua
WWDLW
15 GF / 22 GA
ADT ADT
WLDWL
17 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
1.07
Average Goals Scored
1.21
1.57
Average Goals Conceded
1.21
7
BTTS Yes
6
10
Over 2.5
6
3.46
Shots on Goal
5.46

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua 14 matches
ADT ADT 14 matches
UCV Moquegua Statistic ADT
5 Wins 4
1 Draws 4
8 Losses 6
15 Goals For 17
22 Goals Against 17
1.07 Avg Goals Scored 1.21
1.57 Avg Goals Conceded 1.21
7 BTTS Yes 6
11 Over 1.5 8
10 Over 2.5 6
2 Over 3.5 5
3 Clean Sheets 5
5 Failed To Score 4
3.46 Shots On Goal 5.46
9.77 Total Shots 13.54
3.08 Corners 4.15
38.8% Ball Possession 56.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and ADT's more proactive style and UCV Moquegua's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors ADT.

UCV Moquegua Analysis

UCV Moquegua are currently 12 in the standings with 16 points from 13 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 5 wins, 1 draws, and 7 losses, while the 15:20 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Edgar Lastre (5 goals), J. Collazos (3 goals), C. Mejia (2 goals), with creative support from Edgar Lastre (2 assists), Ricardo Chipao  (2 assists), N. Chavez (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

ADT Analysis

So far, ADT have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 16 points from 13 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, while the 16:15 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. Guivin Tanta (3 goals), Jonathan Bauman (3 goals), Luis Benites (3 goals), with creative support from Carlos Cabello (4 assists), Jonathan Bauman (1 assists), Luis Benites (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, UCV Moquegua won 0 times, ADT won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:2 from UCV Moquegua's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: UCV Moquegua 4-2-3-1 / ADT 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: UCV Moquegua wins 0, draws 1, ADT wins 0
Stats
UCV Moquegua UCV Moquegua
ADT ADT
Shots on Goal
7
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
1
Blocked Shots
2
3 Corner Kicks 0
11 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 2
46% Ball Possession 54%
11 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Goal 4
3 Shots off Goal 4
1 Blocked Shots 2
6 Shots insidebox 6
5 Shots outsidebox 4
2 Goalkeeper Saves 5
283 Total passes 341
211 Passes accurate 266
1.62 expected_goals 0.88
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 5 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

UCV Moquegua
Formation
ADT
C. Grados
C. Grados
A. Perleche
A. Perleche
J. Granda
J. Granda
C. Enciso
C. Enciso
N. Amasifuen
N. Amasifuen
R. Chipao
R. Chipao
N. Chavez
N. Chavez
C. Mejia
C. Mejia
A. Davila
A. Davila
E. Lastre
🎯
E. Lastre
J. Collazos
J. Collazos
J. Valencia
J. Valencia
C. Cabello
C. Cabello
J. Narvaez
J. Narvaez
J. Soto
J. Soto
A. Gutierrez
A. Gutierrez
J. Alvino
J. Alvino
L. Perez
L. Perez
V. Cedron
V. Cedron
H. Rengifo
H. Rengifo
N. Rengifo
N. Rengifo
J. Guivin Tanta
J. Guivin Tanta
UCV Moquegua 4-1-3-2
Starting XI
1
C. Grados
G
4
A. Perleche
D
30
J. Granda
↓ 24'
D
3
C. Enciso
15
N. Amasifuen
D
25
R. Chipao
🟨 58'
M
10
N. Chavez
↓ 56'
8
C. Mejia
M
16
A. Davila
↓ 56'
M
7
E. Lastre
🎯 21' 🟨 42'
F
90
J. Collazos
⚽ 21' ↓ 87'
F
Substitutes
29
R. Figueroa
G
88
R. Torres
M
13
J. Lojas
11
Bryan Angulo
⚽ 90' ↑ 56'
F
17
Y. Zapata
↑ 56' 🟨 90'
F
22
E. Montenegro
↑ 87'
D
20
D. Ramirez
M
14
C. Ramirez
↑ 24'
6
J. Jimenez
ADT 4-1-3-2
Starting XI
30
J. Valencia
G
14
C. Cabello
D
23
J. Narvaez
🟨 34'
D
28
J. Soto
🟨 90+7'
D
20
A. Gutierrez
↓ 46'
D
15
J. Alvino
16
L. Perez
↓ 71'
M
10
V. Cedron
🟨 90'
M
9
H. Rengifo
↓ 17'
M
37
N. Rengifo
↓ 46'
F
8
J. Guivin Tanta
🟨 87'
F
Substitutes
33
C. Solis
G
7
J. Rojas
⚽ 47' ↑ 46'
F
6
A. Ojeda
↑ 71'
M
32
J. Bauman
↑ 17'
F
13
L. Gomez
⚽ 90' ↑ 46' 🟨 90+6'
D
31
J. Navarro
D
17
H. Arakaki
M
21
L. E. Benites Vargas
↑ 90+5'
M
4
R. Biojo
D
Last matches: UCV Moquegua
18.07.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Comerciantes Unidos
2
2
D
29.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Atletico Grau
0
1
L
23.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Universitario
0
0
D
17.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
0
1
L
03.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Alianza Lima
1
2
L
25.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
FC Cajamarca
2
1
W
20.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Cienciano
1
2
L
14.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Juan Pablo II College
3
0
W
03.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Sporting Cristal
2
1
W
21.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Cusco
1
2
L
15.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Alianza Atletico
0
3
L
07.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Sport Huancayo
2
1
W
01.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Sport Boys
0
0
D
23.02.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
0
W
15.02.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
FBC Melgar
0
4
L
06.02.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
UTC Cajamarca
2
3
L
02.02.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Comerciantes Unidos
0
1
L
17.01.26
Fri
UCV Moquegua
FBC Melgar
0
2
L
Last matches: ADT
18.07.26
Pri
ADT
Universitario
1
2
L
30.05.26
Pri
ADT
Cusco
1
2
L
24.05.26
Pri
ADT
Sporting Cristal
1
2
L
17.05.26
Pri
ADT
Comerciantes Unidos
2
0
W
02.05.26
Pri
ADT
Atletico Grau
1
0
W
27.04.26
Pri
ADT
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
4
0
W
18.04.26
Pri
ADT
FC Cajamarca
2
2
D
14.04.26
Pri
ADT
Alianza Lima
0
1
L
03.04.26
Pri
ADT
Cienciano
2
3
L
20.03.26
Pri
ADT
FBC Melgar
1
1
D
14.03.26
Pri
ADT
Sport Huancayo
1
0
W
08.03.26
Pri
ADT
Juan Pablo II College
2
3
L
27.02.26
Pri
ADT
Alianza Atletico
0
0
D
22.02.26
Pri
ADT
UTC Cajamarca
2
2
D
14.02.26
Pri
ADT
Deportivo Garcilaso
0
1
L
07.02.26
Pri
ADT
Sport Boys
1
0
W
01.02.26
Pri
ADT
Universitario
0
2
L
18.01.26
Fri
ADT
FC Cajamarca
1
2
L
H2H: UCV Moquegua vs ADT
09.05.26
H2H
UCV Moquegua
ADT
2
2
D
Last matches: UCV Moquegua
18.07.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Comerciantes Unidos
2
2
D
23.05.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Universitario
0
0
D
25.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
FC Cajamarca
2
1
W
14.04.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Juan Pablo II College
3
0
W
21.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Cusco
1
2
L
07.03.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Sport Huancayo
2
1
W
23.02.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
0
W
06.02.26
Pri
UCV Moquegua
UTC Cajamarca
2
3
L
H2H at home: UCV Moquegua
09.05.26
H2H
UCV Moquegua
ADT
2
2
D
Last matches: ADT
24.05.26
Pri
ADT
Sporting Cristal
1
2
L
18.04.26
Pri
ADT
FC Cajamarca
2
2
D
03.04.26
Pri
ADT
Cienciano
2
3
L
14.03.26
Pri
ADT
Sport Huancayo
1
0
W
27.02.26
Pri
ADT
Alianza Atletico
0
0
D
14.02.26
Pri
ADT
Deportivo Garcilaso
0
1
L
01.02.26
Pri
ADT
Universitario
0
2
L
18.01.26
Fri
ADT
FC Cajamarca
1
2
L
H2H away: ADT
09.05.26
H2H
UCV Moquegua
ADT
2
2
D