FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
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Veritas Stadion

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 87.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
87.2%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Under 9.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Turku PS Win 87.2%
Draw 6.4%
Mariehamn Win 6.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Turku PS1.45
Mariehamn0.86
Recent Form (Last 5)
Turku PS Turku PS
WWDLW
24 GF / 25 GA
Mariehamn Mariehamn
WLDWL
14 GF / 42 GA
Key Stats
1.09
Average Goals Scored
0.67
1.14
Average Goals Conceded
2
11
BTTS Yes
10
9
Over 2.5
9
2.06
Shots on Goal
1.65

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Turku PS Turku PS 22 matches
Mariehamn Mariehamn 21 matches
Turku PS Statistic Mariehamn
8 Wins 1
5 Draws 7
9 Losses 13
24 Goals For 14
25 Goals Against 42
1.09 Avg Goals Scored 0.67
1.14 Avg Goals Conceded 2
11 BTTS Yes 10
14 Over 1.5 18
9 Over 2.5 9
4 Over 3.5 5
7 Clean Sheets 0
5 Failed To Score 11
2.06 Shots On Goal 1.65
5.71 Total Shots 4.47
2.41 Corners 2.41
26.1% Ball Possession 26%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Turku PS's more proactive style and Mariehamn's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Turku PS arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 8 with 22 points compared to Mariehamn in 12 on 4, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Mariehamn. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Turku PS expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Mariehamn in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Mariehamn having the stronger overall control. Mariehamn arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly.

Turku PS Analysis

So far, Turku PS have built a campaign that leaves them 8 in the table on 22 points from 16 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, while the 20:19 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on E. Turkki (1 assists), T. Karkulowski (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Mariehamn Analysis

Mariehamn approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 12 with 4 points from 16 matches. Their record of 0 wins, 4 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 8:35, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through A. Huttunen (1 goals), S. Dahlström (1 goals), with creative support from Y. Amankwah (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 1 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Turku PS won 3 times, Mariehamn won 5 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:23 from Turku PS's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (93.6%)
Predicted formations: Turku PS 4-4-2 / Mariehamn 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Turku PS wins 3, draws 7, Mariehamn wins 5
Last matches: Turku PS
26.07.26
Vei
Turku PS
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
20.07.26
Vei
Turku PS
Ilves
1
3
L
11.07.26
Vei
Turku PS
AC Oulu
3
0
W
04.07.26
Vei
Turku PS
SJK
1
3
L
27.06.26
Vei
Turku PS
FF Jaro
3
2
W
23.06.26
Vei
Turku PS
Lahti
0
0
D
17.06.26
Vei
Turku PS
KuPS
1
2
L
13.06.26
Vei
Turku PS
Ilves
0
1
L
30.05.26
Vei
Turku PS
VPS
1
0
W
23.05.26
Vei
Turku PS
Inter Turku
1
2
L
16.05.26
Vei
Turku PS
AC Oulu
0
1
L
08.05.26
Vei
Turku PS
HJK Helsinki
1
0
W
02.05.26
Vei
Turku PS
FF Jaro
2
2
D
24.04.26
Vei
Turku PS
Gnistan
1
1
D
18.04.26
Vei
Turku PS
SJK
2
0
W
10.04.26
Vei
Turku PS
Lahti
2
1
W
04.04.26
Vei
Turku PS
Mariehamn
1
1
D
27.03.26
Fri
Turku PS
PK-35
1
0
W
21.03.26
Fri
Turku PS
EIF
0
2
L
14.03.26
Fri
Turku PS
VPS
1
0
W
Last matches: Mariehamn
25.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
1
1
D
20.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Lahti
0
2
L
11.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Gnistan
2
4
L
04.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
VPS
0
4
L
27.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
2
L
23.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
0
4
L
18.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
1
2
L
13.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Gnistan
0
3
L
30.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
23.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
FF Jaro
0
3
L
16.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
1
D
10.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Lahti
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
VPS
0
1
L
25.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
1
L
18.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Ilves
2
2
D
10.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
SJK
0
3
L
04.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Turku PS
1
1
D
27.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
EIF
3
2
W
21.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
Sandviken
1
1
D
14.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
KuPS
0
2
L
H2H: Turku PS vs Mariehamn
04.04.26
H2H
Mariehamn
Turku PS
1
1
D
11.02.26
H2H
Mariehamn
Turku PS
1
1
D
28.05.25
H2H
Mariehamn
Turku PS
2
2
D
22.03.24
H2H
Mariehamn
Turku PS
1
3
W
14.09.20
H2H
Turku PS
Mariehamn
1
1
D
16.08.20
H2H
Mariehamn
Turku PS
1
0
L
02.02.20
H2H
Mariehamn
Turku PS
1
1
D
23.09.18
H2H
Mariehamn
Turku PS
2
2
D
29.06.18
H2H
Turku PS
Mariehamn
2
0
W
03.05.18
H2H
Mariehamn
Turku PS
3
2
L
25.10.14
H2H
Mariehamn
Turku PS
3
1
L
11.06.14
H2H
Turku PS
Mariehamn
3
1
W
23.04.14
H2H
Turku PS
Mariehamn
0
1
L
20.10.13
H2H
Turku PS
Mariehamn
3
3
D
29.07.13
H2H
Mariehamn
Turku PS
2
0
L
Last matches: Turku PS
20.07.26
Vei
Turku PS
Ilves
1
3
L
11.07.26
Vei
Turku PS
AC Oulu
3
0
W
27.06.26
Vei
Turku PS
FF Jaro
3
2
W
17.06.26
Vei
Turku PS
KuPS
1
2
L
30.05.26
Vei
Turku PS
VPS
1
0
W
08.05.26
Vei
Turku PS
HJK Helsinki
1
0
W
24.04.26
Vei
Turku PS
Gnistan
1
1
D
18.04.26
Vei
Turku PS
SJK
2
0
W
10.04.26
Vei
Turku PS
Lahti
2
1
W
27.03.26
Fri
Turku PS
PK-35
1
0
W
14.03.26
Fri
Turku PS
VPS
1
0
W
23.01.26
Fri
Turku PS
Haka
1
2
L
H2H at home: Turku PS
14.09.20
H2H
Turku PS
Mariehamn
1
1
D
29.06.18
H2H
Turku PS
Mariehamn
2
0
W
11.06.14
H2H
Turku PS
Mariehamn
3
1
W
23.04.14
H2H
Turku PS
Mariehamn
0
1
L
20.10.13
H2H
Turku PS
Mariehamn
3
3
D
Last matches: Mariehamn
11.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Gnistan
2
4
L
04.07.26
Vei
Mariehamn
VPS
0
4
L
18.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
1
2
L
30.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
23.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
FF Jaro
0
3
L
10.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Lahti
1
1
D
25.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
1
L
10.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
SJK
0
3
L
21.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
Sandviken
1
1
D
14.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
KuPS
0
2
L
H2H away: Mariehamn
14.09.20
H2H
Turku PS
Mariehamn
1
1
D
29.06.18
H2H
Turku PS
Mariehamn
2
0
L
11.06.14
H2H
Turku PS
Mariehamn
3
1
L
23.04.14
H2H
Turku PS
Mariehamn
0
1
W
20.10.13
H2H
Turku PS
Mariehamn
3
3
D

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 10 6 1 32:16 16 36
W W W W W
2 17 8 7 2 24:14 10 31
L D W D D
3 17 8 4 5 28:20 8 28
W W L L W
4 17 8 4 5 27:21 6 28
W W W L D
5 17 7 6 4 24:16 8 27
L L W W D
6 17 8 3 6 21:21 0 27
D L L D L
7 17 6 4 7 20:16 4 22
L W W W D
8 17 6 4 7 20:20 0 22
L L W L W
9 17 6 4 7 29:30 -1 22
W W L D L
10 17 3 6 8 17:33 -16 15
W D W L D
11 17 3 5 9 19:27 -8 14
L L L W D
12 17 0 5 12 9:36 -27 5
D L L L L
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)