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19.09.2026 12:00
Veritas Stadion
Referee: Kalle Nummela, Finland
Turku PS
Match Timeline
Ilves
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
4'
Abdoulie Tamba
Turku PS
⚽
4'
Teemu Hytönen
Ilves
⚽
24'
Teemu Hytönen
Ilves
🔄
60'
Yiandro Raap ↔ Lauri Ala-Myllymäki
Ilves
🔄
60'
Tatu Miettunen ↔ Matias Rale
Ilves
🔄
60'
Maksim Stjopin ↔ Elias Tamminen
Ilves
🟨
66'
Timo Zaal
Turku PS
⚽
67'
Elias Tamminen · Assist: Oskari Multala
Ilves
🔄
72'
Jesse Kilo ↔ Stanislav Baranov
Ilves
🔄
72'
Elmer Vauhkonen ↔ Samuel Anini Jr.
Turku PS
🔄
84'
Matej Hradecky ↔ Atte Sihvonen
Turku PS
🔄
84'
Tomi Vakiparta ↔ Joel Ahen
Turku PS
🔄
86'
Teemu Hytönen ↔ Hamidou Coulibaly
Ilves
🟨
87'
Sauli Väisänen
Ilves
🟨
88'
Pau Juvanteny
Turku PS
⚽
90+2'
Stanislav Baranov · Assist: Elias Tamminen
Ilves

Turku PS vs Ilves Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 67.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
67.7%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Turku PS Win 67.7%
Draw 6.6%
Ilves Win 25.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Turku PS1.18
Ilves1.41
Recent Form (Last 5)
Turku PS Turku PS
L D D D W
4 GF / 3 GA
Ilves Ilves
W W L L L
8 GF / 7 GA
Key Stats
1.1
Average Goals Scored
1.68
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
14
BTTS Yes
17
11
Over 2.5
17
1.88
Shots on Goal
2.21

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Turku PS Turku PS 29 matches
Ilves Ilves 34 matches
Turku PS Statistic Ilves
10 Wins 14
9 Draws 6
10 Losses 14
32 Goals For 57
29 Goals Against 44
1.1 Avg Goals Scored 1.68
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
14 BTTS Yes 17
18 Over 1.5 23
11 Over 2.5 17
5 Over 3.5 14
10 Clean Sheets 11
8 Failed To Score 7
1.88 Shots On Goal 2.21
5.75 Total Shots 4.71
2.42 Corners 1.64
25.3% Ball Possession 21.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Turku PS's more proactive style and Ilves's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Ilves. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Ilves arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Turku PS Analysis

From their first 22 matches, Turku PS have collected 31 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. The record of 8 wins, 7 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 28:23 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through E. Turkki (1 assists), T. Karkulowski (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Ilves Analysis

Ilves approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 9 with 25 points from 22 matches. The overall return of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 11 defeats with a 34:37 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on M. Stjopin (2 goals), T. Hytönen (1 goals), E. Tamminen (1 goals), with creative support from M. Stjopin (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Turku PS won 0 times, Ilves won 5 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:9 from Turku PS's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.4%)
Predicted formations: Turku PS 4-1-4-1 / Ilves 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Turku PS wins 0, draws 0, Ilves wins 5

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 12 7 3 38:23 15 43
L D D W L
2 22 11 9 2 29:16 13 42
W L W L W
3 22 11 4 7 36:27 9 37
W W D W W
4 22 10 6 6 36:29 7 36
L D L L L
5 22 10 4 8 25:25 0 34
W D W W L
6 22 9 6 7 29:22 7 33
L D L L W
7 22 9 5 8 26:19 7 32
W L D L W
8 22 8 7 7 28:23 5 31
L L L L D
9
Ilves Away
22 7 4 11 34:37 -3 25
W D W W W
10 22 4 7 11 25:33 -8 19
L W W D D
11 22 3 6 13 18:44 -26 15
W D D W D
12 22 3 5 14 17:43 -26 14
D D L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Play-offs