BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Tuna Luso
Match Timeline
Tocantinópolis
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
22'
J. Alves
Tuna Luso
42'
Franklin Douglas
Tuna Luso
81'
Vini Ed
Tocantinópolis
87'
Daelson
Tocantinópolis
90'
J. Hitalo
Tocantinópolis

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 92%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 47.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
92%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
47.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Tuna Luso Win 92%
Draw 8%
Tocantinópolis Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tuna Luso1.36
Tocantinópolis0.96
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tuna Luso Tuna Luso
WWDLW
6 GF / 6 GA
Tocantinópolis Tocantinópolis
WLDWL
4 GF / 8 GA
Key Stats
1.2
Average Goals Scored
0.8
1.2
Average Goals Conceded
1.6
2
BTTS Yes
3
1
Over 2.5
2
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tuna Luso Tuna Luso 5 matches
Tocantinópolis Tocantinópolis 5 matches
Tuna Luso Statistic Tocantinópolis
1 Wins 0
3 Draws 3
1 Losses 2
6 Goals For 4
6 Goals Against 8
1.2 Avg Goals Scored 0.8
1.2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.6
2 BTTS Yes 3
4 Over 1.5 4
1 Over 2.5 2
1 Over 3.5 1
2 Clean Sheets 0
2 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Tocantinópolis having the stronger overall control. Tuna Luso arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 6 points compared to Tocantinópolis in 6 on 3, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Tocantinópolis. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Tuna Luso Analysis

Tuna Luso arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 6 points after 5 matches. Their overall return of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 6:6 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Daniel GTA (2 goals), J. Alves (2 goals), Franklin Douglas (1 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Tocantinópolis Analysis

Tocantinópolis are currently 6 in the standings with 3 points from 5 matches. The record of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 4:8 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Tuna Luso won 2 times, Tocantinópolis won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:11 from Tuna Luso's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 4.8 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (100%)
H2H summary: Tuna Luso wins 2, draws 1, Tocantinópolis wins 2
Last matches: Tuna Luso
27.06.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Iguatu
1
1
D
21.06.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Iguatu
1
2
L
06.06.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Imperatriz
0
4
L
31.05.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Trem
1
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Oratório
3
3
D
17.05.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Águia de Marabá
2
1
W
02.05.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Tocantinópolis
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Águia de Marabá
0
2
L
19.04.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Oratório
2
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Trem
3
3
D
05.04.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Imperatriz
0
0
D
10.08.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Maranhão
2
0
W
02.08.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Maranhão
1
4
L
27.07.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Humaitá
2
0
W
19.07.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Trem
1
2
L
13.07.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Manauara
2
1
W
06.07.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Manaus FC
1
2
L
29.06.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Águia de Marabá
2
0
W
15.06.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Independência
3
0
W
07.06.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
GAS
0
0
D
Last matches: Tocantinópolis
06.06.26
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Oratório
7
1
W
30.05.26
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Águia de Marabá
1
3
L
23.05.26
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Trem
1
4
L
16.05.26
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Imperatriz
2
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Tuna Luso
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Imperatriz
1
1
D
22.04.26
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Oratório
0
3
L
19.04.26
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Trem
0
1
L
11.04.26
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Águia de Marabá
2
2
D
26.07.25
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Maracanã
0
1
L
19.07.25
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Altos
1
0
W
12.07.25
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Sampaio Correa
0
2
L
05.07.25
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Maranhão
1
1
D
28.06.25
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Imperatriz
0
4
L
13.06.25
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Iguatu
1
0
W
07.06.25
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Parnahyba
0
0
D
01.06.25
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Parnahyba
0
1
L
24.05.25
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Iguatu
1
1
D
21.05.25
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Imperatriz
1
2
L
10.05.25
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Maranhão
3
2
W
H2H: Tuna Luso vs Tocantinópolis
10.05.26
H2H
Tuna Luso
Tocantinópolis
2
3
L
02.05.26
H2H
Tocantinópolis
Tuna Luso
1
1
D
04.03.26
H2H
Tuna Luso
Tocantinópolis
4
1
W
17.07.22
H2H
Tuna Luso
Tocantinópolis
5
3
W
17.04.22
H2H
Tocantinópolis
Tuna Luso
3
1
L
Last matches: Tuna Luso
21.06.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Iguatu
1
2
L
31.05.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Trem
1
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Águia de Marabá
2
1
W
19.04.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Oratório
2
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Imperatriz
0
0
D
10.08.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Maranhão
2
0
W
27.07.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Humaitá
2
0
W
13.07.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Manauara
2
1
W
29.06.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Águia de Marabá
2
0
W
15.06.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Independência
3
0
W
01.06.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
GAS
3
0
W
11.05.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Manaus FC
3
0
W
27.04.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Trem
4
2
W
H2H at home: Tuna Luso
10.05.26
H2H
Tuna Luso
Tocantinópolis
2
3
L
04.03.26
H2H
Tuna Luso
Tocantinópolis
4
1
W
17.07.22
H2H
Tuna Luso
Tocantinópolis
5
3
W
Last matches: Tocantinópolis
30.05.26
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Águia de Marabá
1
3
L
23.05.26
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Trem
1
4
L
25.04.26
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Imperatriz
1
1
D
22.04.26
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Oratório
0
3
L
26.07.25
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Maracanã
0
1
L
12.07.25
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Sampaio Correa
0
2
L
28.06.25
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Imperatriz
0
4
L
13.06.25
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Iguatu
1
0
W
01.06.25
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Parnahyba
0
1
L
10.05.25
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Maranhão
3
2
W
26.04.25
Ser
Tocantinópolis
Altos
1
1
D
H2H away: Tocantinópolis
10.05.26
H2H
Tuna Luso
Tocantinópolis
2
3
W
04.03.26
H2H
Tuna Luso
Tocantinópolis
4
1
L
17.07.22
H2H
Tuna Luso
Tocantinópolis
5
3
L

Standings

Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)