BRAZIL SERIE D
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 86.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
86.6%
-
BTTS Yes
82.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Tuna Luso Win 41.9%
Draw 13.5%
Iguatu Win 44.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tuna Luso1.12
Iguatu1.52
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tuna Luso Tuna Luso
WWDLW
14 GF / 17 GA
Iguatu Iguatu
WLDWL
14 GF / 7 GA
Key Stats
1.4
Average Goals Scored
1.4
1.7
Average Goals Conceded
0.7
5
BTTS Yes
5
5
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tuna Luso Tuna Luso 10 matches
Iguatu Iguatu 10 matches
Tuna Luso Statistic Iguatu
3 Wins 5
4 Draws 5
3 Losses 0
14 Goals For 14
17 Goals Against 7
1.4 Avg Goals Scored 1.4
1.7 Avg Goals Conceded 0.7
5 BTTS Yes 5
8 Over 1.5 6
5 Over 2.5 3
4 Over 3.5 3
3 Clean Sheets 5
3 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This tie brings together Iguatu's more proactive style and Tuna Luso's more cautious structure, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Iguatu. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Iguatu carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 20 points while Tuna Luso sit 4 on 13, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Iguatu having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Tuna Luso Analysis

Tuna Luso come into this tie placed 4 in their league with 13 points from 10 matches. The return of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 14:17 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking influence is driven by J. Alves (4 goals), Franklin Douglas (3 goals), Daniel GTA (2 goals), and at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, which supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In tactical terms they still look like a side built around a more cautious and defensive approach.

Iguatu Analysis

Ahead of this knockout test, Iguatu arrive from a league campaign that has them 1 with 20 points after 10 matches. With 5 wins, 5 draws, and 0 losses plus a goal ratio of 14:7, they bring mixed form over their recent run into this tie. Going forward they rely on Matheus Lima (7 goals), J. Klaivert (3 goals), while defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically they continue to show balanced attacking football.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.6%)
Last matches: Tuna Luso
06.06.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Imperatriz
0
4
L
31.05.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Trem
1
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Oratório
3
3
D
17.05.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Águia de Marabá
2
1
W
10.05.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Tocantinópolis
2
3
L
02.05.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Tocantinópolis
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Águia de Marabá
0
2
L
19.04.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Oratório
2
0
W
12.04.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Trem
3
3
D
05.04.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Imperatriz
0
0
D
10.08.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Maranhão
2
0
W
02.08.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Maranhão
1
4
L
27.07.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Humaitá
2
0
W
19.07.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Trem
1
2
L
13.07.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Manauara
2
1
W
06.07.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Manaus FC
1
2
L
29.06.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Águia de Marabá
2
0
W
15.06.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Independência
3
0
W
07.06.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
GAS
0
0
D
01.06.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
GAS
3
0
W
Last matches: Iguatu
07.06.26
Ser
Iguatu
Sampaio Correa
1
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Iguatu
Parnahyba
2
2
D
23.05.26
Ser
Iguatu
IAPE
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Iguatu
Maracanã
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Iguatu
Moto Club
3
1
W
02.05.26
Ser
Iguatu
Moto Club
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
Iguatu
Maracanã
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Iguatu
IAPE
3
2
W
12.04.26
Ser
Iguatu
Parnahyba
2
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Iguatu
Sampaio Correa
0
0
D
26.07.25
Ser
Iguatu
Sampaio Correa
1
1
D
19.07.25
Ser
Iguatu
Imperatriz
1
0
W
12.07.25
Ser
Iguatu
Maracanã
2
1
W
06.07.25
Ser
Iguatu
Parnahyba
0
2
L
28.06.25
Ser
Iguatu
Altos
1
2
L
13.06.25
Ser
Iguatu
Tocantinópolis
0
1
L
08.06.25
Ser
Iguatu
Maranhão
1
1
D
30.05.25
Ser
Iguatu
Maranhão
1
0
W
24.05.25
Ser
Iguatu
Tocantinópolis
1
1
D
17.05.25
Ser
Iguatu
Altos
2
3
L
Last matches: Tuna Luso
31.05.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Trem
1
0
W
17.05.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Águia de Marabá
2
1
W
10.05.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Tocantinópolis
2
3
L
19.04.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Oratório
2
0
W
05.04.26
Ser
Tuna Luso
Imperatriz
0
0
D
10.08.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Maranhão
2
0
W
27.07.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Humaitá
2
0
W
13.07.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Manauara
2
1
W
29.06.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Águia de Marabá
2
0
W
15.06.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Independência
3
0
W
01.06.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
GAS
3
0
W
11.05.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Manaus FC
3
0
W
27.04.25
Ser
Tuna Luso
Trem
4
2
W
Last matches: Iguatu
07.06.26
Ser
Iguatu
Sampaio Correa
1
0
W
23.05.26
Ser
Iguatu
IAPE
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Iguatu
Maracanã
1
1
D
02.05.26
Ser
Iguatu
Moto Club
0
0
D
12.04.26
Ser
Iguatu
Parnahyba
2
0
W
26.07.25
Ser
Iguatu
Sampaio Correa
1
1
D
06.07.25
Ser
Iguatu
Parnahyba
0
2
L
28.06.25
Ser
Iguatu
Altos
1
2
L
08.06.25
Ser
Iguatu
Maranhão
1
1
D
24.05.25
Ser
Iguatu
Tocantinópolis
1
1
D
04.05.25
Ser
Iguatu
Maracanã
0
1
L
26.04.25
Ser
Iguatu
Imperatriz
1
2
L

Standings

Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)