BRAZIL › SERIE D
17.05.2026 19:00
Tuna Luso
Match Timeline
Águia de Marabá
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
25'
Lua Niger
Tuna Luso
⚽
45'
Dede
Tuna Luso
⚽
90'
A. Silva
Águia de Marabá

Tuna Luso vs Águia de Marabá Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 54.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 86.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 69.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
54.7%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
86.7%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
69.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Tuna Luso Win 54.7%
Draw 4.3%
Águia de Marabá Win 41%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tuna Luso1.2
Águia de Marabá1.9
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tuna Luso Tuna Luso
WWDLW
8 GF / 9 GA
Águia de Marabá Águia de Marabá
WLDWL
13 GF / 6 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
2.17
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1
3
BTTS Yes
5
2
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tuna Luso Tuna Luso 6 matches
Águia de Marabá Águia de Marabá 6 matches
Tuna Luso Statistic Águia de Marabá
1 Wins 3
3 Draws 3
2 Losses 0
8 Goals For 13
9 Goals Against 6
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 2.17
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1
3 BTTS Yes 5
5 Over 1.5 6
2 Over 2.5 3
2 Over 3.5 2
2 Clean Sheets 1
2 Failed To Score 0
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Águia de Marabá's more proactive style and Tuna Luso's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Águia de Marabá carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 12 points while Tuna Luso sit 4 on 6, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Águia de Marabá. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Águia de Marabá having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Tuna Luso Analysis

Placed 4 with 6 points from 6 outings, Tuna Luso continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 1 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, while the 8:9 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. Alves (3 goals), Daniel GTA (2 goals), Franklin Douglas (2 goals), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Águia de Marabá Analysis

Águia de Marabá come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 12 points after 6 matches. The return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 0 defeats, together with goals at 13:6, reflects good form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through Felipe Para (3 goals), Kukri (2 goals), A. Silva (1 goals), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, their record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Tuna Luso won 4 times, Águia de Marabá won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:18 from Tuna Luso's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.7%)
H2H summary: Tuna Luso wins 4, draws 5, Águia de Marabá wins 5

Standings

Group 5
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 2 2 19:13 6 20
W L W W L
2 10 5 3 2 20:11 9 18
L W W L W
3 10 4 3 3 15:10 5 15
W W L L W
4 10 3 4 3 14:17 -3 13
L W D W L
5 10 3 3 4 18:18 0 12
W L L W W
6 10 1 1 8 12:29 -17 4
L L D L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)