LATVIA VIRSLIGA
20.05.2026 15:00
Referee: D. Kozlovs
Tukums
Match Timeline
Riga
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
16'
E. Oloko
Riga
20'
A. Cernomordijs · Assist: Caio Ferreira
Riga
🟨
37'
A. Ankrah
Riga
40'
E. Oloko · Assist: R. Deruzinskis
Tukums
59'
M. Badamosi
Riga
🔄
66'
Caio Ferreira ↔ Juan Christian
Riga
🟨
68'
O. Galo
Riga
🔄
69'
R. Reingolcs ↔ D. Valmiers
Tukums
🔄
69'
M. Derkach ↔ R. Melkis
Tukums
🔄
69'
Anmanis Kaspars ↔ R. Baumanis
Tukums
🔄
76'
B. Samoilovs ↔ R. Kirss
Tukums
🟨
80'
M. Susts
Tukums
🔄
80'
O. Galo ↔ K. Wassom
Riga
🔄
84'
R. Deruzinskis ↔ M. Stals
Tukums
🟨
85'
R. Jurkovskis
Riga
🟨
87'
S. Shibata
Tukums
🔄
88'
M. Diop ↔ Reginaldo Ramires
Riga
🔄
88'
M. Tonisevs ↔ Abner
Riga

Tukums vs Riga Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 63%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 83.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 80.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
63%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
83.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
80.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Tukums Win 30%
Draw 7%
Riga Win 63%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tukums1.72
Riga2.36
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tukums Tukums
WWDLW
32 GF / 27 GA
Riga Riga
WLDWL
56 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
2
Average Goals Scored
2.8
1.69
Average Goals Conceded
1.3
15
BTTS Yes
15
12
Over 2.5
18
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tukums Tukums 16 matches
Riga Riga 20 matches
Tukums Statistic Riga
2 Wins 13
9 Draws 4
5 Losses 3
32 Goals For 56
27 Goals Against 26
2 Avg Goals Scored 2.8
1.69 Avg Goals Conceded 1.3
15 BTTS Yes 15
16 Over 1.5 19
12 Over 2.5 18
7 Over 3.5 12
1 Clean Sheets 5
0 Failed To Score 0
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Riga having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Riga. Riga carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 30 points while Tukums sit 7 on 13, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Tukums Analysis

From their first 13 matches, Tukums have collected 13 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. Their overall return of 2 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 27:21 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by E. Oloko (12 goals), R. Deruzinskis (6 goals), Leoni (4 goals), with creative support from B. Samoilovs (6 assists), Anmanis Kaspars (2 assists), R. Baumanis (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Riga Analysis

Riga approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 30 points after 13 outings. The return of 9 wins, 3 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 42:16, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through M. Badamosi (8 goals), Iago Siqueira (6 goals), S. Panic (6 goals), with creative support from Reginaldo Ramires (5 assists), A. Salazar (5 assists), A. Cernomordijs (4 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, the split of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Tukums won 1 times, Riga won 12 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:54 from Tukums's perspective. 13 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 4.2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93%)
Predicted formations: Tukums 5-3-2 / Riga 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Tukums wins 1, draws 2, Riga wins 12

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 22 3 2 68:20 48 69
W D W W W
2
Riga Away
27 20 5 2 81:27 54 65
L D W W W
3 27 16 5 6 44:27 17 53
D W W W W
4 28 12 4 12 39:41 -2 40
W L W W L
5 28 10 7 11 33:32 1 37
L D W W L
6 28 8 7 13 32:47 -15 31
W W L L L
7 26 8 5 13 27:38 -11 29
D D L W L
8 28 5 9 14 20:50 -30 24
W L L L D
9 28 4 8 16 41:58 -17 20
L L L W L
10 27 3 5 19 26:71 -45 14
L L L D L