LATVIA VIRSLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Referee: D. Kozlovs
Tukums
Match Timeline
Riga
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
16'
E. Oloko
Riga
20'
A. Cernomordijs · Assist: Caio Ferreira
Riga
🟨
37'
A. Ankrah
Riga
40'
E. Oloko · Assist: R. Deruzinskis
Tukums
59'
M. Badamosi
Riga
🔄
66'
Caio Ferreira ↔ Juan Christian
Riga
🟨
68'
O. Galo
Riga
🔄
69'
R. Reingolcs ↔ D. Valmiers
Tukums
🔄
69'
M. Derkach ↔ R. Melkis
Tukums
🔄
69'
Anmanis Kaspars ↔ R. Baumanis
Tukums
🔄
76'
B. Samoilovs ↔ R. Kirss
Tukums
🟨
80'
M. Susts
Tukums
🔄
80'
O. Galo ↔ K. Wassom
Riga
🔄
84'
R. Deruzinskis ↔ M. Stals
Tukums
🟨
85'
R. Jurkovskis
Riga
🟨
87'
S. Shibata
Tukums
🔄
88'
M. Diop ↔ Reginaldo Ramires
Riga
🔄
88'
M. Tonisevs ↔ Abner
Riga

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 63%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 83.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 80.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
63%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
83.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
80.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Tukums Win 30%
Draw 7%
Riga Win 63%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tukums1.72
Riga2.36
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tukums Tukums
WWDLW
32 GF / 27 GA
Riga Riga
WLDWL
56 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
2
Average Goals Scored
2.8
1.69
Average Goals Conceded
1.3
15
BTTS Yes
15
12
Over 2.5
18
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tukums Tukums 16 matches
Riga Riga 20 matches
Tukums Statistic Riga
2 Wins 13
9 Draws 4
5 Losses 3
32 Goals For 56
27 Goals Against 26
2 Avg Goals Scored 2.8
1.69 Avg Goals Conceded 1.3
15 BTTS Yes 15
16 Over 1.5 19
12 Over 2.5 18
7 Over 3.5 12
1 Clean Sheets 5
0 Failed To Score 0
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Riga having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Riga. Riga carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 30 points while Tukums sit 7 on 13, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Tukums Analysis

From their first 13 matches, Tukums have collected 13 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. Their overall return of 2 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 27:21 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by E. Oloko (12 goals), R. Deruzinskis (6 goals), Leoni (4 goals), with creative support from B. Samoilovs (6 assists), Anmanis Kaspars (2 assists), R. Baumanis (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Riga Analysis

Riga approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 2 on 30 points after 13 outings. The return of 9 wins, 3 draws, and 1 defeats, together with goals at 42:16, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through M. Badamosi (8 goals), Iago Siqueira (6 goals), S. Panic (6 goals), with creative support from Reginaldo Ramires (5 assists), A. Salazar (5 assists), A. Cernomordijs (4 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, the split of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Tukums won 1 times, Riga won 12 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:53 from Tukums's perspective. 12 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 4.07 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93%)
H2H summary: Tukums wins 1, draws 2, Riga wins 12

Lineups

Tukums
Formation
Riga
I. Baturins
I. Baturins
R. Reingolcs
R. Reingolcs
M. Susts
M. Susts
H. Joksts
H. Joksts
A. Enyou
A. Enyou
M. Derkach
M. Derkach
B. Samoilovs
B. Samoilovs
Anmanis Kaspars
Anmanis Kaspars
S. Shibata
S. Shibata
R. Deruzinskis
🎯
R. Deruzinskis
E. Oloko
⚽ 2
E. Oloko
F. Orols
F. Orols
M. Tonisevs
M. Tonisevs
A. Cernomordijs
A. Cernomordijs
Paulo Eduardo
Paulo Eduardo
R. Jurkovskis
R. Jurkovskis
A. Ankrah
A. Ankrah
Caio Ferreira
🎯
Caio Ferreira
O. Galo
O. Galo
M. Diop
M. Diop
M. Badamosi
M. Badamosi
S. Oulad M'Hand
S. Oulad M'Hand
Tukums 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
97
I. Baturins
8
R. Reingolcs
↓ 69'
30
M. Susts
🟨 80'
25
H. Joksts
46
A. Enyou
17
M. Derkach
↓ 69'
10
B. Samoilovs
↓ 76'
4
Anmanis Kaspars
↓ 69'
7
S. Shibata
🟨 87'
27
R. Deruzinskis
🎯 40' ↓ 84'
19
E. Oloko
⚽ 16' ⚽ 40'
Substitutes
35
K. Minajevs
15
R. Kirss
↑ 76'
88
M. Stals
↑ 84'
14
D. Putrans
21
D. Valmiers
↑ 69'
16
K. Klavins
28
R. Melkis
↑ 69'
22
R. Baumanis
↑ 69'
18
D. Calbergs
Riga 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
91
F. Orols
23
M. Tonisevs
↓ 88'
34
A. Cernomordijs
⚽ 20'
33
Paulo Eduardo
13
R. Jurkovskis
🟨 85'
40
A. Ankrah
🟨 37'
99
Caio Ferreira
🎯 20' ↓ 66'
4
O. Galo
↓ 80' 🟨 68'
22
M. Diop
↓ 88'
19
M. Badamosi
⚽ 59'
18
S. Oulad M'Hand
Substitutes
1
K. Zviedris
44
M. Kazainis
29
E. Maurs-Boks
5
K. Wassom
↑ 80'
10
Reginaldo Ramires
↑ 88'
70
Juan Christian
↑ 66'
11
B. Pena
3
Abner
↑ 88'
28
A. Mandeke
Last matches: Tukums
17.06.26
Vir
Tukums
Auda
2
1
W
12.06.26
Vir
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
30.05.26
Vir
Tukums
FK Liepaja
0
3
L
25.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Rīgas FS
1
3
L
15.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Grobiņa
3
3
D
11.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Super Nova
1
1
D
07.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Ogre United
6
1
W
01.05.26
Vir
Tukums
FS Jelgava
5
0
W
26.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Auda
1
2
L
21.04.26
Vir
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
17.04.26
Vir
Tukums
FK Liepaja
2
2
D
13.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Rīgas FS
1
2
L
09.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Riga
3
3
D
05.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Grobiņa
1
1
D
22.03.26
Vir
Tukums
Super Nova
1
2
L
15.03.26
Vir
Tukums
Ogre United
1
1
D
08.03.26
Vir
Tukums
FS Jelgava
1
2
L
11.02.26
Fri
Tukums
Kalju Nomme
2
2
D
07.02.26
Fri
Tukums
Džiugas Telšiai
2
2
D
31.01.26
Fri
Tukums
Panevėžys
1
2
L
Last matches: Riga
17.06.26
Vir
Riga
Rīgas FS
2
1
W
13.06.26
Vir
Riga
Ogre United
4
1
W
29.05.26
Vir
Riga
Grobiņa
2
0
W
24.05.26
Vir
Riga
Super Nova
3
0
W
16.05.26
Vir
Riga
FS Jelgava
2
2
D
12.05.26
Vir
Riga
Auda
4
1
W
08.05.26
Vir
Riga
BFC Daugavpils
3
1
W
03.05.26
Vir
Riga
FK Liepaja
1
0
W
28.04.26
Vir
Riga
Rīgas FS
3
3
D
22.04.26
Vir
Riga
Ogre United
4
0
W
18.04.26
Vir
Riga
Grobiņa
3
0
W
14.04.26
Vir
Riga
Super Nova
4
1
W
09.04.26
Vir
Riga
Tukums
3
3
D
04.04.26
Vir
Riga
FS Jelgava
8
0
W
27.03.26
Fri
Riga
Legia Warszawa
1
3
L
20.03.26
Vir
Riga
Auda
2
1
W
14.03.26
Vir
Riga
BFC Daugavpils
4
2
W
07.03.26
Vir
Riga
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
24.02.26
Fri
Riga
Flora Tallinn
3
0
W
12.02.26
Fri
Riga
LNZ Cherkasy
3
1
W
H2H: Tukums vs Riga
20.05.26
H2H
Tukums
Riga
1
3
L
09.04.26
H2H
Riga
Tukums
3
3
D
24.10.25
H2H
Riga
Tukums
0
0
D
03.08.25
H2H
Tukums
Riga
0
1
L
12.07.25
H2H
Riga
Tukums
4
0
L
31.05.25
H2H
Riga
Tukums
3
0
L
13.04.25
H2H
Tukums
Riga
0
3
L
27.10.24
H2H
Riga
Tukums
10
1
L
04.08.24
H2H
Tukums
Riga
0
5
L
29.05.24
H2H
Riga
Tukums
3
0
L
16.04.24
H2H
Tukums
Riga
2
1
W
06.10.23
H2H
Riga
Tukums
4
0
L
23.07.23
H2H
Tukums
Riga
0
6
L
21.05.23
H2H
Riga
Tukums
5
1
L
10.04.23
H2H
Tukums
Riga
0
2
L
Last matches: Tukums
17.06.26
Vir
Tukums
Auda
2
1
W
12.06.26
Vir
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
07.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Ogre United
6
1
W
01.05.26
Vir
Tukums
FS Jelgava
5
0
W
21.04.26
Vir
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
17.04.26
Vir
Tukums
FK Liepaja
2
2
D
13.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Rīgas FS
1
2
L
05.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Grobiņa
1
1
D
22.03.26
Vir
Tukums
Super Nova
1
2
L
07.02.26
Fri
Tukums
Džiugas Telšiai
2
2
D
H2H at home: Tukums
20.05.26
H2H
Tukums
Riga
1
3
L
03.08.25
H2H
Tukums
Riga
0
1
L
13.04.25
H2H
Tukums
Riga
0
3
L
04.08.24
H2H
Tukums
Riga
0
5
L
16.04.24
H2H
Tukums
Riga
2
1
W
23.07.23
H2H
Tukums
Riga
0
6
L
10.04.23
H2H
Tukums
Riga
0
2
L
Last matches: Riga
13.06.26
Vir
Riga
Ogre United
4
1
W
08.05.26
Vir
Riga
BFC Daugavpils
3
1
W
28.04.26
Vir
Riga
Rīgas FS
3
3
D
18.04.26
Vir
Riga
Grobiņa
3
0
W
14.04.26
Vir
Riga
Super Nova
4
1
W
04.04.26
Vir
Riga
FS Jelgava
8
0
W
27.03.26
Fri
Riga
Legia Warszawa
1
3
L
20.03.26
Vir
Riga
Auda
2
1
W
07.03.26
Vir
Riga
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
24.02.26
Fri
Riga
Flora Tallinn
3
0
W
12.02.26
Fri
Riga
LNZ Cherkasy
3
1
W
05.02.26
Fri
Riga
Shakhtar Donetsk
1
2
L
17.01.26
Fri
Riga
Dubai United
2
1
W
21.08.25
UEF
Riga
Sparta Praha
0
2
L
14.08.25
UEF
Riga
Beitar Jerusalem
1
3
L
31.07.25
UEF
Riga
Dila
3
3
D
H2H away: Riga
20.05.26
H2H
Tukums
Riga
1
3
W
03.08.25
H2H
Tukums
Riga
0
1
W
13.04.25
H2H
Tukums
Riga
0
3
W
04.08.24
H2H
Tukums
Riga
0
5
W
16.04.24
H2H
Tukums
Riga
2
1
L
23.07.23
H2H
Tukums
Riga
0
6
W
10.04.23
H2H
Tukums
Riga
0
2
W

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 15 1 2 42:14 28 46
L W W W W
2
Riga Away
18 14 3 1 56:19 37 45
W W W W W
3 18 11 2 5 34:23 11 35
L D W W W
4 18 7 4 7 23:25 -2 25
L W W D L
5 18 6 3 9 19:25 -6 21
D L L L W
6 18 5 5 8 20:25 -5 20
D D D L W
7 18 3 8 7 32:32 0 17
W D L L L
8 18 3 7 8 12:29 -17 16
W L L D L
9 18 3 7 8 13:33 -20 16
L D D D L
10 18 1 4 13 16:42 -26 7
W L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - Nakotnes liga