LATVIA VIRSLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Referee: S. Vasjkovs
Tukums
Match Timeline
Ogre United
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
35'
E. Oloko · Assist: B. Samoilovs
Tukums
41'
Leoni · Assist: B. Samoilovs
Tukums
🔄
46'
Leoni ↔ R. Deruzinskis
Tukums
🔄
46'
D. Vejkrigers ↔ V. Mashchenko
Ogre United
🔄
46'
F. Machado ↔ H. Silagailis
Ogre United
🔄
46'
T. Marusiy ↔ M. Lormanis
Ogre United
🔄
64'
K. Kumakura ↔ M. Marusii
Ogre United
68'
R. Deruzinskis · Assist: B. Samoilovs
Tukums
🔄
74'
R. Melkis ↔ D. Valmiers
Tukums
🔄
74'
R. Reingolcs ↔ K. Klavins
Tukums
🔄
74'
B. Samoilovs ↔ J. Toba
Tukums
🔄
74'
M. Kalnins ↔ E. Sprukts
Ogre United
75'
K. Cudars
Ogre United
79'
E. Oloko · Assist: R. Deruzinskis
Tukums
🔄
85'
Anmanis Kaspars ↔ R. Baumanis
Tukums
90'
E. Oloko · Assist: S. Shibata
Tukums
90'
E. Oloko · Assist: R. Baumanis
Tukums

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 87.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 12.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 37.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
87.6%
-
BTTS BTTS No
12.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
37.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Tukums Win 87.6%
Draw 12.4%
Ogre United Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tukums1.75
Ogre United1.13
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tukums Tukums
WWDLW
22 GF / 22 GA
Ogre United Ogre United
WLDWL
9 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.69
Average Goals Scored
0.75
1.69
Average Goals Conceded
1.83
12
BTTS Yes
7
10
Over 2.5
5
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tukums Tukums 13 matches
Ogre United Ogre United 12 matches
Tukums Statistic Ogre United
1 Wins 0
7 Draws 3
5 Losses 9
22 Goals For 9
22 Goals Against 22
1.69 Avg Goals Scored 0.75
1.69 Avg Goals Conceded 1.83
12 BTTS Yes 7
13 Over 1.5 9
10 Over 2.5 5
5 Over 3.5 2
1 Clean Sheets 0
0 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Tukums's more proactive style and Ogre United's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Ogre United. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Ogre United having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Ogre United arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Tukums Analysis

Tukums are currently 8 in the standings with 8 points from 10 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 1 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses, while the 17:16 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on E. Oloko (7 goals), R. Deruzinskis (3 goals), Leoni (2 goals), with creative support from B. Samoilovs (2 assists), Anmanis Kaspars (2 assists), E. Oloko (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Ogre United Analysis

With 3 points from 10 games and a place of 10, Ogre United still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 7 defeats with a 8:19 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on K. Cudars (3 goals), E. Evelons (1 goals), K. Johnson (1 goals), with creative support from M. Kalnins (1 assists), D. Vejkrigers (1 assists), F. Machado (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Tukums won 1 times, Ogre United won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:5 from Tukums's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 4.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (100%)
H2H summary: Tukums wins 1, draws 1, Ogre United wins 1

Lineups

Tukums
Formation
Ogre United
I. Baturins
I. Baturins
M. Stals
M. Stals
H. Joksts
H. Joksts
A. Enyou
A. Enyou
R. Melkis
R. Melkis
B. Samoilovs
🎯
B. Samoilovs
Anmanis Kaspars
Anmanis Kaspars
S. Shibata
🎯
S. Shibata
R. Reingolcs
R. Reingolcs
Leoni
Leoni
E. Oloko
⚽ 4
E. Oloko
N. Parfjonovs
N. Parfjonovs
R. Ziemelis
R. Ziemelis
T. Mickevics
T. Mickevics
K. Hayashi
K. Hayashi
D. Vejkrigers
D. Vejkrigers
T. Marusiy
T. Marusiy
K. Cudars
K. Cudars
K. Kumakura
K. Kumakura
M. Ivulans
M. Ivulans
F. Machado
F. Machado
M. Kalnins
M. Kalnins
Tukums 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
97
I. Baturins
88
M. Stals
25
H. Joksts
46
A. Enyou
28
R. Melkis
↓ 74'
10
B. Samoilovs
🎯 35' 🎯 41' 🎯 68' ↓ 74'
4
Anmanis Kaspars
↓ 85'
7
S. Shibata
🎯 90'
8
R. Reingolcs
↓ 74'
11
Leoni
⚽ 41' ↓ 46'
19
E. Oloko
⚽ 35' ⚽ 79' ⚽ 90' ⚽ 90'
Substitutes
35
K. Minajevs
14
D. Putrans
21
D. Valmiers
↑ 74'
16
K. Klavins
↑ 74'
22
R. Baumanis
🎯 90' ↑ 85'
17
M. Derkach
5
J. Toba
↑ 74'
27
R. Deruzinskis
⚽ 68' 🎯 79' ↑ 46'
30
M. Susts
Ogre United 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
N. Parfjonovs
2
R. Ziemelis
8
T. Mickevics
5
K. Hayashi
6
D. Vejkrigers
↓ 46'
3
T. Marusiy
↓ 46'
19
K. Cudars
⚽ 75'
7
K. Kumakura
↓ 64'
21
M. Ivulans
99
F. Machado
↓ 46'
10
M. Kalnins
↓ 74'
Substitutes
20
K. Biscuhis
14
R. Aditajs
28
D. Sedols
17
V. Mashchenko
↑ 46'
9
H. Silagailis
↑ 46'
37
M. Lormanis
↑ 46'
77
M. Marusii
↑ 64'
11
M. Pacepko
23
E. Sprukts
↑ 74'
Last matches: Tukums
18.07.26
Vir
Tukums
Riga
1
3
L
05.07.26
Vir
Tukums
Grobiņa
1
3
L
01.07.26
Vir
Tukums
Super Nova
1
2
L
26.06.26
Vir
Tukums
Ogre United
2
3
L
21.06.26
Vir
Tukums
FS Jelgava
1
4
L
17.06.26
Vir
Tukums
Auda
2
1
W
12.06.26
Vir
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
30.05.26
Vir
Tukums
FK Liepaja
0
3
L
25.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Rīgas FS
1
3
L
20.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Riga
1
3
L
15.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Grobiņa
3
3
D
11.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Super Nova
1
1
D
01.05.26
Vir
Tukums
FS Jelgava
5
0
W
26.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Auda
1
2
L
21.04.26
Vir
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
17.04.26
Vir
Tukums
FK Liepaja
2
2
D
13.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Rīgas FS
1
2
L
09.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Riga
3
3
D
05.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Grobiņa
1
1
D
22.03.26
Vir
Tukums
Super Nova
1
2
L
Last matches: Ogre United
19.07.26
Vir
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
0
4
L
06.07.26
Vir
Ogre United
Super Nova
2
1
W
30.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
0
4
L
26.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
Tukums
3
2
W
22.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
Rīgas FS
0
6
L
17.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
FS Jelgava
2
0
W
13.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
Riga
1
4
L
30.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Auda
0
2
L
25.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Grobiņa
1
1
D
21.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
1
3
L
16.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Super Nova
1
3
L
12.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
1
4
L
02.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Rīgas FS
3
4
L
27.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
FS Jelgava
0
1
L
22.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Riga
0
4
L
17.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Auda
1
1
D
13.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Grobiņa
1
1
D
07.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
1
2
L
03.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Super Nova
1
2
L
20.03.26
Vir
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
0
1
L
H2H: Tukums vs Ogre United
26.06.26
H2H
Ogre United
Tukums
3
2
L
07.05.26
H2H
Tukums
Ogre United
6
1
W
15.03.26
H2H
Ogre United
Tukums
1
1
D
Last matches: Tukums
01.07.26
Vir
Tukums
Super Nova
1
2
L
17.06.26
Vir
Tukums
Auda
2
1
W
12.06.26
Vir
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
20.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Riga
1
3
L
01.05.26
Vir
Tukums
FS Jelgava
5
0
W
21.04.26
Vir
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
17.04.26
Vir
Tukums
FK Liepaja
2
2
D
13.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Rīgas FS
1
2
L
05.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Grobiņa
1
1
D
22.03.26
Vir
Tukums
Super Nova
1
2
L
07.02.26
Fri
Tukums
Džiugas Telšiai
2
2
D
H2H at home: Tukums
07.05.26
H2H
Tukums
Ogre United
6
1
W
Last matches: Ogre United
06.07.26
Vir
Ogre United
Super Nova
2
1
W
30.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
0
4
L
22.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
Rīgas FS
0
6
L
17.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
FS Jelgava
2
0
W
30.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Auda
0
2
L
21.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
1
3
L
16.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Super Nova
1
3
L
12.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
1
4
L
22.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Riga
0
4
L
07.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
1
2
L
06.03.26
Vir
Ogre United
Rīgas FS
0
2
L
14.02.26
Fri
Ogre United
FK Zalgiris Vilnius
1
2
L
07.02.26
Fri
Ogre United
Flora Tallinn
0
1
L
H2H away: Ogre United
07.05.26
H2H
Tukums
Ogre United
6
1
L

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 23 19 2 2 55:16 39 59
W D W W W
2 23 18 4 1 68:20 48 58
W W W D W
3 22 12 4 6 37:26 11 40
D L D W L
4 23 8 6 9 29:29 0 30
W W L D W
5 22 8 4 10 28:34 -6 28
L W L L L
6 23 8 3 12 25:35 -10 27
W L W L L
7 23 6 7 10 24:39 -15 25
L L W W W
8 23 4 8 11 15:35 -20 20
L W L D L
9 23 3 8 12 38:47 -9 17
L L L L L
10 23 3 4 16 21:59 -38 13
L W L W L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - Nakotnes liga