LATVIA VIRSLIGA
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Daugavas stadions

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.8%
-
BTTS Yes
82.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Tukums Win 55.8%
Draw 6.3%
FK Liepaja Win 37.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tukums1.58
FK Liepaja1.68
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tukums Tukums
WWDLW
43 GF / 54 GA
FK Liepaja FK Liepaja
WLDWL
51 GF / 55 GA
Key Stats
1.59
Average Goals Scored
1.46
2
Average Goals Conceded
1.57
24
BTTS Yes
20
21
Over 2.5
21
0
Shots on Goal
2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tukums Tukums 27 matches
FK Liepaja FK Liepaja 35 matches
Tukums Statistic FK Liepaja
3 Wins 15
10 Draws 5
14 Losses 15
43 Goals For 51
54 Goals Against 55
1.59 Avg Goals Scored 1.46
2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.57
24 BTTS Yes 20
26 Over 1.5 29
21 Over 2.5 21
13 Over 3.5 12
1 Clean Sheets 5
2 Failed To Score 10
0 Shots On Goal 2
0 Total Shots 8
0 Corners 3
0% Ball Possession 27.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward FK Liepaja. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward FK Liepaja having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Tukums Analysis

With 17 points from 23 games and a place of 9, Tukums still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 3 wins, 8 draws, and 12 defeats with a 38:47 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 3 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

FK Liepaja Analysis

FK Liepaja approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 5 with 28 points from 22 matches. The overall return of 8 wins, 4 draws, and 10 defeats with a 28:34 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Tukums won 3 times, FK Liepaja won 8 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:27 from Tukums's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.7%)
Predicted formations: Tukums - / FK Liepaja 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Tukums wins 3, draws 4, FK Liepaja wins 8
Last matches: Tukums
27.07.26
Vir
Tukums
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
18.07.26
Vir
Tukums
Riga
1
3
L
05.07.26
Vir
Tukums
Grobiņa
1
3
L
01.07.26
Vir
Tukums
Super Nova
1
2
L
26.06.26
Vir
Tukums
Ogre United
2
3
L
21.06.26
Vir
Tukums
FS Jelgava
1
4
L
17.06.26
Vir
Tukums
Auda
2
1
W
12.06.26
Vir
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
30.05.26
Vir
Tukums
FK Liepaja
0
3
L
25.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Rīgas FS
1
3
L
20.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Riga
1
3
L
15.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Grobiņa
3
3
D
11.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Super Nova
1
1
D
07.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Ogre United
6
1
W
01.05.26
Vir
Tukums
FS Jelgava
5
0
W
26.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Auda
1
2
L
21.04.26
Vir
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
17.04.26
Vir
Tukums
FK Liepaja
2
2
D
13.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Rīgas FS
1
2
L
09.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Riga
3
3
D
Last matches: FK Liepaja
30.07.26
UEF
FK Liepaja
Austria Vienna
1
3
L
26.07.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
FS Jelgava
2
0
W
23.07.26
UEF
FK Liepaja
Austria Vienna
0
2
L
15.07.26
UEF
FK Liepaja
Dečić
2
1
W
09.07.26
UEF
FK Liepaja
Dečić
1
0
W
04.07.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
BFC Daugavpils
1
3
L
30.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Ogre United
4
0
W
26.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Rīgas FS
0
2
L
21.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Riga
0
4
L
16.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Grobiņa
0
1
L
12.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
1
W
30.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Tukums
3
0
W
26.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
22.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Auda
1
3
L
17.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
BFC Daugavpils
2
1
W
12.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Ogre United
4
1
W
08.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Rīgas FS
0
5
L
03.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Riga
0
1
L
28.04.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Grobiņa
1
1
D
23.04.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
1
W
H2H: Tukums vs FK Liepaja
30.05.26
H2H
FK Liepaja
Tukums
3
0
L
17.04.26
H2H
Tukums
FK Liepaja
2
2
D
14.09.25
H2H
FK Liepaja
Tukums
4
1
L
25.06.25
H2H
Tukums
FK Liepaja
1
3
L
06.05.25
H2H
Tukums
FK Liepaja
2
2
D
12.03.25
H2H
FK Liepaja
Tukums
0
0
D
01.09.24
H2H
FK Liepaja
Tukums
3
1
L
20.06.24
H2H
Tukums
FK Liepaja
2
1
W
02.05.24
H2H
Tukums
FK Liepaja
0
0
D
09.03.24
H2H
FK Liepaja
Tukums
0
2
W
28.10.23
H2H
FK Liepaja
Tukums
1
0
L
05.08.23
H2H
Tukums
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
01.06.23
H2H
FK Liepaja
Tukums
0
1
W
18.04.23
H2H
Tukums
FK Liepaja
0
3
L
28.01.23
H2H
FK Liepaja
Tukums
3
0
L
Last matches: Tukums
27.07.26
Vir
Tukums
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
01.07.26
Vir
Tukums
Super Nova
1
2
L
17.06.26
Vir
Tukums
Auda
2
1
W
12.06.26
Vir
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
20.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Riga
1
3
L
07.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Ogre United
6
1
W
01.05.26
Vir
Tukums
FS Jelgava
5
0
W
21.04.26
Vir
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
17.04.26
Vir
Tukums
FK Liepaja
2
2
D
13.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Rīgas FS
1
2
L
05.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Grobiņa
1
1
D
22.03.26
Vir
Tukums
Super Nova
1
2
L
07.02.26
Fri
Tukums
Džiugas Telšiai
2
2
D
H2H at home: Tukums
17.04.26
H2H
Tukums
FK Liepaja
2
2
D
25.06.25
H2H
Tukums
FK Liepaja
1
3
L
06.05.25
H2H
Tukums
FK Liepaja
2
2
D
20.06.24
H2H
Tukums
FK Liepaja
2
1
W
02.05.24
H2H
Tukums
FK Liepaja
0
0
D
05.08.23
H2H
Tukums
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
18.04.23
H2H
Tukums
FK Liepaja
0
3
L
Last matches: FK Liepaja
30.07.26
UEF
FK Liepaja
Austria Vienna
1
3
L
26.07.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
FS Jelgava
2
0
W
15.07.26
UEF
FK Liepaja
Dečić
2
1
W
04.07.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
BFC Daugavpils
1
3
L
21.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Riga
0
4
L
16.06.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Grobiņa
0
1
L
26.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
22.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Auda
1
3
L
08.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Rīgas FS
0
5
L
03.05.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Riga
0
1
L
23.04.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
2
1
W
17.04.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Tukums
2
2
D
03.04.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
BFC Daugavpils
0
2
L
20.03.26
Vir
FK Liepaja
Ogre United
1
0
W
03.02.26
Fri
FK Liepaja
AIK Stockholm
3
1
W
H2H away: FK Liepaja
17.04.26
H2H
Tukums
FK Liepaja
2
2
D
25.06.25
H2H
Tukums
FK Liepaja
1
3
W
06.05.25
H2H
Tukums
FK Liepaja
2
2
D
20.06.24
H2H
Tukums
FK Liepaja
2
1
L
02.05.24
H2H
Tukums
FK Liepaja
0
0
D
05.08.23
H2H
Tukums
FK Liepaja
1
2
W
18.04.23
H2H
Tukums
FK Liepaja
0
3
W

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 20 2 2 56:16 40 62
W W D W W
2 23 18 4 1 68:20 48 58
W W W D W
3 23 13 4 6 38:26 12 43
W D L D W
4 23 9 4 10 30:34 -4 31
W L W L L
5 24 8 6 10 29:30 -1 30
L W W L D
6 23 8 3 12 25:35 -10 27
W L W L L
7 24 6 7 11 24:41 -17 25
L L L W W
8 24 4 9 11 17:37 -20 21
D L W L D
9 24 3 8 13 38:48 -10 17
L L L L L
10 24 3 5 16 23:61 -38 14
D L W L W