LATVIA VIRSLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Referee: A. Golubevs
Tukums
Match Timeline
BFC Daugavpils
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
46'
J. Toba ↔ S. Shibata
Tukums
47'
E. Oloko · Assist: S. Shibata
Tukums
🟨
51'
M. Stals
Tukums
🔄
60'
A. Traore ↔ C. Taty
BFC Daugavpils
60'
J. Yakubu · Assist: Z. Ouled-Haj-M'hand
BFC Daugavpils
🔄
65'
M. Stals ↔ K. Volkovs
Tukums
🔄
65'
R. Deruzinskis ↔ Leoni
Tukums
🔄
73'
R. Melkis ↔ D. Valmiers
Tukums
🔄
88'
R. Reingolcs ↔ K. Klavins
Tukums

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 75.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 83.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 68.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
75.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
83.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
68.9%
-
Probability Distribution
Tukums Win 32.4%
Draw 24.3%
BFC Daugavpils Win 43.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tukums1.62
BFC Daugavpils1.48
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tukums Tukums
WWDLW
15 GF / 19 GA
BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils
WLDWL
18 GF / 27 GA
Key Stats
1.5
Average Goals Scored
1.2
1.9
Average Goals Conceded
1.8
10
BTTS Yes
7
8
Over 2.5
8
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tukums Tukums 10 matches
BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 15 matches
Tukums Statistic BFC Daugavpils
0 Wins 6
6 Draws 0
4 Losses 9
15 Goals For 18
19 Goals Against 27
1.5 Avg Goals Scored 1.2
1.9 Avg Goals Conceded 1.8
10 BTTS Yes 7
10 Over 1.5 9
8 Over 2.5 8
4 Over 3.5 5
0 Clean Sheets 3
0 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward BFC Daugavpils. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. BFC Daugavpils look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward BFC Daugavpils having the stronger overall control. BFC Daugavpils carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 12 points while Tukums sit 9 on 4, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Tukums Analysis

Tukums sit 9 with 4 points after 7 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 0 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, while the 7:9 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on E. Oloko (3 goals), R. Deruzinskis (3 goals), Leoni (2 goals), with creative support from B. Samoilovs (2 assists), Leoni (1 assists), Anmanis Kaspars (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

BFC Daugavpils Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 12 points from 7 games, BFC Daugavpils bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 4 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, with a 10:12 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on A. Garzha (3 goals), R. Ndjiki (3 goals), J. Yakubu (2 goals), with creative support from A. Garzha (2 assists), R. Ndjiki (2 assists), J. Yakubu (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, their record of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Tukums won 3 times, BFC Daugavpils won 7 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:24 from Tukums's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (75.7%)
H2H summary: Tukums wins 3, draws 5, BFC Daugavpils wins 7

Lineups

Tukums
Formation
BFC Daugavpils
I. Baturins
I. Baturins
R. Melkis
R. Melkis
M. Stals
M. Stals
H. Joksts
H. Joksts
A. Enyou
A. Enyou
R. Reingolcs
R. Reingolcs
Anmanis Kaspars
Anmanis Kaspars
J. Toba
J. Toba
B. Samoilovs
B. Samoilovs
E. Oloko
E. Oloko
R. Deruzinskis
R. Deruzinskis
J. Beks
J. Beks
G. Mihalcovs
G. Mihalcovs
Papa
Papa
R. Skrebels
R. Skrebels
Z. Ouled-Haj-M'hand
🎯
Z. Ouled-Haj-M'hand
A. Garzha
A. Garzha
W. Mukwelle
W. Mukwelle
J. Yakubu
J. Yakubu
M. Sylla
M. Sylla
A. Traore
A. Traore
R. Ndjiki
R. Ndjiki
Tukums 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
97
I. Baturins
28
R. Melkis
↓ 73'
88
M. Stals
↓ 65' 🟨 51'
25
H. Joksts
46
A. Enyou
8
R. Reingolcs
↓ 88'
4
Anmanis Kaspars
5
J. Toba
↓ 46'
10
B. Samoilovs
19
E. Oloko
⚽ 47'
27
R. Deruzinskis
↓ 65'
Substitutes
35
K. Minajevs
6
K. Volkovs
↑ 65'
7
S. Shibata
🎯 47' ↑ 46'
14
D. Putrans
21
D. Valmiers
↑ 73'
16
K. Klavins
↑ 88'
22
R. Baumanis
29
Y. Koki
11
Leoni
↑ 65'
BFC Daugavpils 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
12
J. Beks
37
G. Mihalcovs
5
Papa
8
R. Skrebels
34
Z. Ouled-Haj-M'hand
🎯 60'
22
A. Garzha
4
W. Mukwelle
11
J. Yakubu
⚽ 60'
7
M. Sylla
9
A. Traore
↓ 60'
15
R. Ndjiki
Substitutes
1
J. Saveljevs
97
D. Kivinda
77
R. Aizups
27
M. Kopilovs
66
K. Bujanovs
19
E. Pinaskins
20
C. Taty
↑ 60'
2
R. Baikovs
30
L. Lozda
Last matches: Tukums
18.07.26
Vir
Tukums
Riga
1
3
L
05.07.26
Vir
Tukums
Grobiņa
1
3
L
01.07.26
Vir
Tukums
Super Nova
1
2
L
26.06.26
Vir
Tukums
Ogre United
2
3
L
21.06.26
Vir
Tukums
FS Jelgava
1
4
L
17.06.26
Vir
Tukums
Auda
2
1
W
12.06.26
Vir
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
30.05.26
Vir
Tukums
FK Liepaja
0
3
L
25.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Rīgas FS
1
3
L
20.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Riga
1
3
L
15.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Grobiņa
3
3
D
11.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Super Nova
1
1
D
07.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Ogre United
6
1
W
01.05.26
Vir
Tukums
FS Jelgava
5
0
W
26.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Auda
1
2
L
17.04.26
Vir
Tukums
FK Liepaja
2
2
D
13.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Rīgas FS
1
2
L
09.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Riga
3
3
D
05.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Grobiņa
1
1
D
22.03.26
Vir
Tukums
Super Nova
1
2
L
Last matches: BFC Daugavpils
19.07.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
4
0
W
04.07.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja
3
1
W
30.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
1
3
L
25.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Riga
0
0
D
20.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
1
0
W
16.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
0
D
12.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
1
1
D
31.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
26.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Auda
0
1
L
21.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
3
1
W
17.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
13.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
08.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Riga
1
3
L
02.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
1
1
D
27.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
0
1
L
16.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
0
W
12.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Auda
3
2
W
07.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
2
1
W
03.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja
2
0
W
21.03.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
1
4
L
H2H: Tukums vs BFC Daugavpils
12.06.26
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
21.04.26
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
30.08.25
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
0
1
L
21.06.25
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
1
2
W
30.04.25
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
07.03.25
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
3
0
L
21.09.24
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
03.07.24
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
2
L
12.05.24
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
4
1
L
30.03.24
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
3
1
L
01.09.23
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
3
0
W
26.06.23
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
3
1
L
03.05.23
H2H
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
3
3
D
12.03.23
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
W
04.02.23
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
2
L
Last matches: Tukums
01.07.26
Vir
Tukums
Super Nova
1
2
L
17.06.26
Vir
Tukums
Auda
2
1
W
12.06.26
Vir
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
20.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Riga
1
3
L
07.05.26
Vir
Tukums
Ogre United
6
1
W
01.05.26
Vir
Tukums
FS Jelgava
5
0
W
17.04.26
Vir
Tukums
FK Liepaja
2
2
D
13.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Rīgas FS
1
2
L
05.04.26
Vir
Tukums
Grobiņa
1
1
D
22.03.26
Vir
Tukums
Super Nova
1
2
L
07.02.26
Fri
Tukums
Džiugas Telšiai
2
2
D
H2H at home: Tukums
12.06.26
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
21.04.26
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
30.08.25
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
0
1
L
30.04.25
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
21.09.24
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
03.07.24
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
2
L
01.09.23
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
3
0
W
12.03.23
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
W
04.02.23
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
2
L
Last matches: BFC Daugavpils
19.07.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
4
0
W
30.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
1
3
L
12.06.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Tukums
1
1
D
31.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
17.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
02.05.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Grobiņa
1
1
D
12.04.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Auda
3
2
W
21.03.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
1
4
L
14.03.26
Vir
BFC Daugavpils
Riga
2
4
L
28.02.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
14.02.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
Suduva Marijampole
3
5
L
07.02.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
Šiauliai
0
1
L
31.01.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
Flora Tallinn
0
4
L
28.01.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
FK Trakai
1
2
L
24.01.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
TransINVEST Vilnius
1
0
W
17.01.26
Fri
BFC Daugavpils
Panevėžys
0
1
L
10.07.25
UEF
BFC Daugavpils
Vllaznia Shkodër
1
0
W
H2H away: BFC Daugavpils
12.06.26
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
21.04.26
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
30.08.25
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
0
1
W
30.04.25
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
21.09.24
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
03.07.24
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
2
W
01.09.23
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
3
0
L
12.03.23
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
L
04.02.23
H2H
Tukums
BFC Daugavpils
1
2
W

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 23 19 2 2 55:16 39 59
W D W W W
2 23 18 4 1 68:20 48 58
W W W D W
3 22 12 4 6 37:26 11 40
D L D W L
4 23 8 6 9 29:29 0 30
W W L D W
5 22 8 4 10 28:34 -6 28
L W L L L
6 23 8 3 12 25:35 -10 27
W L W L L
7 23 6 7 10 24:39 -15 25
L L W W W
8 23 4 8 11 15:35 -20 20
L W L D L
9 23 3 8 12 38:47 -9 17
L L L L L
10 23 3 4 16 21:59 -38 13
L W L W L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - Nakotnes liga