GERMANY › 3. LIGA
09.05.2026 12:00
Städtisches Stadion an der Grünwalder Straße
Referee: Y. Rupert
TSV 1860 München
Match Timeline
FC Ingolstadt 04
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
42'
S. Althaus · Assist: S. Haugen
TSV 1860 München
⚽
57'
M. Costly · Assist: M. Hoppe
FC Ingolstadt 04
🔄
63'
F. Niederlechner ↔ M. Schroter
TSV 1860 München
🔄
63'
S. Althaus ↔ L. Husic
TSV 1860 München
⚽
64'
M. Besuschkow · Assist: M. Costly
FC Ingolstadt 04
🔄
71'
M. Wolfram ↔ M. Rittmuller
TSV 1860 München
🔄
71'
J. Steinkotter ↔ P. Hobsch
TSV 1860 München
🟨
76'
Sean Dulic
TSV 1860 München
🟨
81'
Siemen Voet
TSV 1860 München
🔄
82'
S. Dulic ↔ R. Schifferl
TSV 1860 München
🔄
90+2'
M. Costly ↔ J. Kugel
FC Ingolstadt 04
🔄
90+2'
F. Carlsen ↔ L. Frode
FC Ingolstadt 04
🔄
90+5'
Y. Sturm ↔ E. Kehrer
FC Ingolstadt 04

TSV 1860 München vs FC Ingolstadt 04 Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 63.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 82.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
63.3%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
82.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
69.9%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
TSV 1860 München Win 63.3%
Draw 4.3%
FC Ingolstadt 04 Win 32.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
TSV 1860 München1.48
FC Ingolstadt 041.5
Recent Form (Last 5)
TSV 1860 München TSV 1860 München
WWDLW
53 GF / 48 GA
FC Ingolstadt 04 FC Ingolstadt 04
WLDWL
58 GF / 54 GA
Key Stats
1.47
Average Goals Scored
1.61
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
22
BTTS Yes
26
20
Over 2.5
25
3.73
Shots on Goal
4.37

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

TSV 1860 München TSV 1860 München 36 matches
FC Ingolstadt 04 FC Ingolstadt 04 36 matches
TSV 1860 München Statistic FC Ingolstadt 04
15 Wins 11
11 Draws 10
10 Losses 15
53 Goals For 58
48 Goals Against 54
1.47 Avg Goals Scored 1.61
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
22 BTTS Yes 26
30 Over 1.5 29
20 Over 2.5 25
12 Over 3.5 12
9 Clean Sheets 7
7 Failed To Score 6
3.73 Shots On Goal 4.37
9.7 Total Shots 11.83
4.23 Corners 3.87
40.6% Ball Possession 43%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. FC Ingolstadt 04 arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors FC Ingolstadt 04. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with TSV 1860 München expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and FC Ingolstadt 04 in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward FC Ingolstadt 04 having the stronger overall control.

TSV 1860 München Analysis

TSV 1860 München are currently 8 in the standings with 56 points from 36 matches. Their overall return of 15 wins, 11 draws, and 10 losses with goals at 53:48 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by S. Haugen (16 goals), Thore Jacobsen (7 goals), P. Hobsch (6 goals), with creative support from K. Volland (7 assists), D. Philipp (4 assists), T. Deniz (4 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, the record of 9 wins, 7 draws, and 2 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

FC Ingolstadt 04 Analysis

FC Ingolstadt 04 approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 43 points from 36 matches. Across the season they have posted 11 wins, 10 draws, and 15 defeats, and the 58:54 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on M. Costly (16 goals), Dennis Kaygın (7 goals), Y. Sturm (6 goals), with creative support from M. Costly (8 assists), F. Carlsen (7 assists), M. Besuschkow (6 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 6 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, TSV 1860 München won 5 times, FC Ingolstadt 04 won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:22 from TSV 1860 München's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 13 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.7%)
Predicted formations: TSV 1860 München 4-2-3-1 / FC Ingolstadt 04 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: TSV 1860 München wins 5, draws 4, FC Ingolstadt 04 wins 6

Standings

3. Liga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 24 8 6 66:34 32 80
W D W W W
2 38 21 9 8 72:51 21 72
W W L W W
3 38 20 10 8 78:66 12 70
W W L L L
4 38 19 11 8 66:49 17 68
D D W L W
5 38 18 13 7 74:49 25 67
W W D L D
6 38 18 10 10 82:48 34 64
W L W L W
7 38 19 7 12 76:57 19 64
W W D W W
8 38 15 11 12 54:53 1 56
L L D W D
9 38 15 8 15 54:52 2 53
W L L D D
10 38 15 7 16 59:72 -13 52
L W L D D
11 38 15 6 17 51:53 -2 51
D L W L L
12 38 13 10 15 65:56 9 49
W W L W L
13 38 14 7 17 54:58 -4 49
L L W W L
14 38 13 7 18 57:69 -12 46
L L W L D
15 38 10 14 14 51:57 -6 44
L L W W D
16 38 12 7 19 65:71 -6 43
L W L L L
17 38 9 8 21 57:89 -32 35
L W L W L
18 38 7 13 18 51:70 -19 34
W D W D D
19 38 9 6 23 49:78 -29 33
L D L L W
20 38 5 6 27 38:87 -49 21
L L D D D
Promotion - 2. Bundesliga
Promotion - 2. Bundesliga (Promotion)
Relegation