ENGLAND PREMIER LEAGUE
18.04.2026 16:30
Tottenham Hotspur Stadium
Referee: S. Attwell
Tottenham
Match Timeline
Brighton
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
20'
D. Gomez ↔ K. Mitoma
Brighton
🟨
34'
Yves Bissouma
Tottenham
🟨
37'
Mats Wieffer
Brighton
39'
P. Porro · Assist: X. Simons
Tottenham
45'
K. Mitoma · Assist: P. Gross
Brighton
🔄
57'
R. Kolo Muani ↔ M. Tel
Tottenham
🔄
57'
Y. Bissouma ↔ A. Gray
Tottenham
🟨
65'
Kevin Danso
Tottenham
🔄
67'
R. Bentancur ↔ J. Palhinha
Tottenham
🔄
75'
J. Hinshelwood ↔ M. O'Riley
Brighton
🔄
75'
D. Welbeck ↔ G. Rutter
Brighton
🔄
75'
↔ M. De Cuyper
Brighton
🔄
76'
D. Udogie ↔ D. Spence
Tottenham
🔄
76'
C. Gallagher ↔ L. Bergvall
Tottenham
77'
X. Simons · Assist: L. Bergvall
Tottenham
🟨
78'
Xavi Simons
Tottenham
🔄
82'
Y. Ayari ↔ C. Kostoulas
Brighton
90'
G. Rutter · Assist: J. P. van Hecke
Brighton

Tottenham vs Brighton Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 79.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 74.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 79.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
79.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
74.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
79.6%
-
Probability Distribution
Tottenham Win 10.3%
Draw 10.1%
Brighton Win 79.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tottenham1.37
Brighton1.42
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tottenham Tottenham
WWDLW
65 GF / 69 GA
Brighton Brighton
WLDWL
45 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
1.48
Average Goals Scored
1.32
1.57
Average Goals Conceded
1.21
25
BTTS Yes
20
29
Over 2.5
16
4.3
Shots on Goal
4.44

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tottenham Tottenham 44 matches
Brighton Brighton 34 matches
Tottenham Statistic Brighton
13 Wins 13
12 Draws 10
19 Losses 11
65 Goals For 45
69 Goals Against 41
1.48 Avg Goals Scored 1.32
1.57 Avg Goals Conceded 1.21
25 BTTS Yes 20
37 Over 1.5 28
29 Over 2.5 16
15 Over 3.5 5
13 Clean Sheets 8
8 Failed To Score 8
4.3 Shots On Goal 4.44
11.64 Total Shots 12.97
4.98 Corners 4.59
49.1% Ball Possession 52.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Brighton's more proactive style and Tottenham's more cautious structure. Tottenham appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Brighton. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Brighton. Brighton carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 9 with 46 points while Tottenham sit 18 on 30, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Tottenham expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Brighton in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Brighton having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Brighton look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Tottenham Analysis

Tottenham sit 18 with 30 points after 32 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 7 wins, 9 draws, and 16 losses, together with goals at 40:51, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through Richarlison (9 goals), Cristian Romero (4 goals), Micky van de Ven (4 goals), with creative support from M. Kudus (5 assists), X. Simons (4 assists), Richarlison (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 4 draws, and 10 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. Although they are without M. Kudus, B. Davies, D. Kulusevski, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.

Brighton Analysis

Brighton are currently 9 in the standings with 46 points from 32 matches. The record of 12 wins, 10 draws, and 10 defeats, together with a 43:37 goal balance, points toward very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking threat comes through D. Welbeck (12 goals), Diego Gómez (5 goals), Jan Paul van Hecke (4 goals), with creative support from Y. Minteh (4 assists), Y. Ayari (3 assists), J. Hinshelwood (3 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with L. Dunk, S. Tzimas, A. Webster unavailable.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Tottenham won 7 times, Brighton won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 23:25 from Tottenham's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.9%)
Predicted formations: Tottenham 4-4-2 / Brighton 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Tottenham 7, Brighton 4
H2H summary: Tottenham wins 7, draws 2, Brighton wins 6

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 26 7 5 71:27 44 85
W W W W W
2 38 23 9 6 77:35 42 78
L D W W D
3 38 20 11 7 69:50 19 71
W W D W W
4 38 19 8 11 56:49 7 65
W W D L L
5 38 17 9 12 63:53 10 60
D L D L W
6 38 13 18 7 58:54 4 57
D D W W D
7 38 14 12 12 42:48 -6 54
W W D D L
8 38 14 11 13 52:46 6 53
L L W L W
9 38 14 11 13 55:52 3 53
D D L W L
10 38 14 10 14 58:52 6 52
L W D L L
11 38 15 7 16 47:51 -4 52
W D L L W
12 38 14 7 17 53:55 -2 49
L W D W L
13 38 13 10 15 47:50 -3 49
L L D D L
14 38 11 14 13 49:56 -7 47
L W D W D
15 38 11 12 15 41:51 -10 45
L D L D L
16 38 11 11 16 48:51 -3 44
D L D W W
17 38 10 11 17 48:57 -9 41
W L D W W
18 38 10 9 19 46:65 -19 39
W L L L W
19 38 4 10 24 38:75 -37 22
D L D L L
20 38 3 11 24 27:68 -41 20
D D L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Championship