🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
29.08.2026 23:30
BMO Field
Referee: M. Badawi
Toronto FC
Match Timeline
New York City FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
18'
Benjamin Kuscevic
Toronto FC
29'
N. Mercau · Assist: A. Ojeda
New York City FC
🟨
40'
Nicolás Fernández
New York City FC
🟨
54'
Andrés Perea
New York City FC
🔄
55'
K. Franklin ↔ Matheus Pereira
Toronto FC
🔄
55'
D. Etienne ↔ D. Salloi
Toronto FC
🟨
59'
Đorđe Mihailović
Toronto FC
🔄
62'
N. Cavallo ↔ K. O'Toole
New York City FC
🔄
63'
B. Traore ↔ Raul Gustavo
New York City FC
🟨
64'
Matheus Pereira
Toronto FC
70'
D. Salloi · Assist: T. Corbeanu
Toronto FC
🔄
75'
Thiago Martins ↔ M. Jones
New York City FC
🔄
77'
K. Parks ↔ J. Shore
New York City FC
🟨
90+1'
Jonathan Shore
New York City FC

Toronto FC vs New York City FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 50.1%
Odds 2.73
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds 1.57
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.68
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
50.1%
2.73
BTTS Yes
88%
1.57
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.68
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
78.2%
1.25
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.50
Correct Score 1-2
-
7.50
Probability Distribution
Toronto FC Win 32.1%
Draw 17.8%
New York City FC Win 50.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Toronto FC1.52
New York City FC1.6
Recent Form (Last 5)
Toronto FC Toronto FC
WWDLW
41 GF / 42 GA
New York City FC New York City FC
WLDWL
41 GF / 37 GA
Key Stats
1.58
Average Goals Scored
1.58
1.62
Average Goals Conceded
1.42
20
BTTS Yes
18
17
Over 2.5
14
4.19
Shots on Goal
5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Toronto FC Toronto FC 26 matches
New York City FC New York City FC 26 matches
Toronto FC Statistic New York City FC
8 Wins 8
10 Draws 8
8 Losses 10
41 Goals For 41
42 Goals Against 37
1.58 Avg Goals Scored 1.58
1.62 Avg Goals Conceded 1.42
20 BTTS Yes 18
22 Over 1.5 24
17 Over 2.5 14
9 Over 3.5 7
4 Clean Sheets 4
4 Failed To Score 4
4.19 Shots On Goal 5
11.38 Total Shots 11.9
5.05 Corners 3.57
46.3% Ball Possession 53.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features New York City FC's more proactive style and Toronto FC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Toronto FC expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and New York City FC in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward New York City FC having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors New York City FC.

Toronto FC Analysis

Toronto FC are currently 11 in the standings with 21 points from 20 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 9 draws, and 7 losses, while the 29:36 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Emilio Aristizábal (3 goals), Dániel Sallói (2 goals), Kobe Franklin (2 goals), with creative support from Dániel Sallói (2 assists), Kobe Franklin (2 assists), Jonathan Osorio (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

New York City FC Analysis

So far, New York City FC have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 26 points from 20 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, while the 34:29 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Nicolás Fernández (8 goals), Agustin Ojeda (3 goals), Hannes Wolf (3 goals), with creative support from Nicolás Fernández (3 assists), Agustin Ojeda (3 assists), Hannes Wolf (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Toronto FC won 3 times, New York City FC won 8 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:29 from Toronto FC's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.2%)
Predicted formations: Toronto FC 4-2-3-1 / New York City FC 4-1-4-1
Missing players: Toronto FC 4, New York City FC 9
H2H summary: Toronto FC wins 3, draws 4, New York City FC wins 8

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 16 6 3 50:21 29 54
D L D W W
2 25 12 9 4 61:46 15 45
D D D W L
3 25 13 4 8 41:31 10 43
W W L W D
4 25 11 7 7 45:36 9 40
D W D W W
5 24 11 6 7 45:35 10 39
L D D D D
6 25 10 4 11 44:56 -12 34
W W W D W
7 25 9 6 10 46:39 7 33
W W W W D
8 25 8 8 9 39:33 6 32
W L D D D
9 24 8 8 8 52:59 -7 32
D L L D W
10 25 8 6 11 33:48 -15 30
W L D L D
11 24 6 11 7 30:37 -7 29
D W D L L
12 25 6 11 8 38:46 -8 29
L W D D W
13 25 6 5 14 35:42 -7 23
L L W L L
14 25 6 5 14 29:43 -14 23
D L D L W
15 25 5 6 14 31:51 -20 21
L L L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)