Toronto FC vs New York City FC Prediction & Match Analysis
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away Win |
50.1%
|
2.73 | |
| BTTS | Yes |
88%
|
1.57 | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
77.2%
|
1.68 | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
78.2%
|
1.25 | |
| HT / FT | Draw / Away |
-
|
6.50 | |
| Correct Score | 1-2 |
-
|
7.50 |
Toronto FC
New York City FC
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Toronto FC
26 matches
New York City FC
26 matches
| Toronto FC | Statistic | New York City FC |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Wins | 8 |
| 10 | Draws | 8 |
| 8 | Losses | 10 |
| 41 | Goals For | 41 |
| 42 | Goals Against | 37 |
| 1.58 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.58 |
| 1.62 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.42 |
| 20 | BTTS Yes | 18 |
| 22 | Over 1.5 | 24 |
| 17 | Over 2.5 | 14 |
| 9 | Over 3.5 | 7 |
| 4 | Clean Sheets | 4 |
| 4 | Failed To Score | 4 |
| 4.19 | Shots On Goal | 5 |
| 11.38 | Total Shots | 11.9 |
| 5.05 | Corners | 3.57 |
| 46.3% | Ball Possession | 53.9% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
From a tactical perspective, this fixture features New York City FC's more proactive style and Toronto FC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Toronto FC expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and New York City FC in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward New York City FC having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors New York City FC.
Toronto FC are currently 11 in the standings with 21 points from 20 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 9 draws, and 7 losses, while the 29:36 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Emilio Aristizábal (3 goals), Dániel Sallói (2 goals), Kobe Franklin (2 goals), with creative support from Dániel Sallói (2 assists), Kobe Franklin (2 assists), Jonathan Osorio (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.
So far, New York City FC have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 26 points from 20 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses, while the 34:29 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Nicolás Fernández (8 goals), Agustin Ojeda (3 goals), Hannes Wolf (3 goals), with creative support from Nicolás Fernández (3 assists), Agustin Ojeda (3 assists), Hannes Wolf (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Toronto FC won 3 times, New York City FC won 8 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:29 from Toronto FC's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.07 goals per game.
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 25 | 16 | 6 | 3 | 50:21 | 29 | 54 |
D
L
D
W
W
|
|
| 2 | 25 | 12 | 9 | 4 | 61:46 | 15 | 45 |
D
D
D
W
L
|
|
| 3 | 25 | 13 | 4 | 8 | 41:31 | 10 | 43 |
W
W
L
W
D
|
|
| 4 | 25 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 45:36 | 9 | 40 |
D
W
D
W
W
|
|
| 5 | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | 45:35 | 10 | 39 |
L
D
D
D
D
|
|
| 6 | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | 44:56 | -12 | 34 |
W
W
W
D
W
|
|
| 7 | 25 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 46:39 | 7 | 33 |
W
W
W
W
D
|
|
| 8 |
New York City FC
Away
|
25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 39:33 | 6 | 32 |
W
L
D
D
D
|
| 9 | 24 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 52:59 | -7 | 32 |
D
L
L
D
W
|
|
| 10 | 25 | 8 | 6 | 11 | 33:48 | -15 | 30 |
W
L
D
L
D
|
|
| 11 | 24 | 6 | 11 | 7 | 30:37 | -7 | 29 |
D
W
D
L
L
|
|
| 12 |
Toronto FC
Home
|
25 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 38:46 | -8 | 29 |
L
W
D
D
W
|
| 13 | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 35:42 | -7 | 23 |
L
L
W
L
L
|
|
| 14 | 25 | 6 | 5 | 14 | 29:43 | -14 | 23 |
D
L
D
L
W
|
|
| 15 | 25 | 5 | 6 | 14 | 31:51 | -20 | 21 |
L
L
L
L
D
|