🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
15.08.2026 23:30
BMO Field
Referee: Joseph Dickerson, USA
Toronto FC
Match Timeline
New England Revolution
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
25'
Brooklyn Raines
New England Revolution
🔄
40'
Peyton Miller ↔ Griffin Yow
New England Revolution
43'
William Sands
Toronto FC
45+6'
Niklas Dorsch · Assist: Đorđe Mihailović
Toronto FC
🔄
73'
Dor Turgeman ↔ Wilson Harris
New England Revolution
🟨
74'
Walker Zimmerman
Toronto FC
🟥
76'
Đorđe Mihailović
Toronto FC
🔄
81'
Dániel Sallói ↔ Alonso Coello
Toronto FC
🔄
81'
Theo Corbeanu ↔ Zane Monlouis
Toronto FC
🔄
81'
Matt Polster ↔ Marcos Zambrano
New England Revolution
🔄
86'
Brooklyn Raines ↔ Diego Fagúndez
New England Revolution
90'
Wilson Harris · Assist: Jack Harrison
New England Revolution
🔄
90'
Markus Cimermancic ↔ Kobe Franklin
Toronto FC
🔄
90'
Josh Sargent ↔ Emilio Aristizábal
Toronto FC

Toronto FC vs New England Revolution Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 55.3%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 62.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
55.3%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
62.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Toronto FC Win 25.5%
Draw 19.2%
New England Revolution Win 55.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Toronto FC1.41
New England Revolution1.79
Recent Form (Last 5)
Toronto FC Toronto FC
WWDLW
34 GF / 37 GA
New England Revolution New England Revolution
WLDWL
44 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1.48
Average Goals Scored
1.91
1.61
Average Goals Conceded
1.3
17
BTTS Yes
14
14
Over 2.5
15
4.33
Shots on Goal
3.94

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Toronto FC Toronto FC 23 matches
New England Revolution New England Revolution 23 matches
Toronto FC Statistic New England Revolution
6 Wins 11
9 Draws 4
8 Losses 8
34 Goals For 44
37 Goals Against 30
1.48 Avg Goals Scored 1.91
1.61 Avg Goals Conceded 1.3
17 BTTS Yes 14
19 Over 1.5 18
14 Over 2.5 15
8 Over 3.5 8
4 Clean Sheets 5
4 Failed To Score 5
4.33 Shots On Goal 3.94
11.83 Total Shots 10.72
5.44 Corners 4.17
47.7% Ball Possession 49.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around New England Revolution's more proactive style and Toronto FC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. New England Revolution carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 30 points while Toronto FC sit 12 on 17, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring New England Revolution. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Toronto FC expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and New England Revolution in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward New England Revolution having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Toronto FC Analysis

From their first 18 matches, Toronto FC have collected 17 points and now occupy 12 place in the table. Their overall return of 3 wins, 8 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 24:32 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Emilio Aristizábal (3 goals), Dániel Sallói (2 goals), Kobe Franklin (2 goals), with creative support from Dániel Sallói (2 assists), Kobe Franklin (2 assists), Jonathan Osorio (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 5 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

New England Revolution Analysis

New England Revolution come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 30 points from 17 matches. The record of 9 wins, 3 draws, and 5 defeats, together with a 28:21 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Carles Gil (6 goals), Dor Turgeman (2 goals), Luca Langoni (2 goals), with creative support from Dor Turgeman (3 assists), Carles Gil (2 assists), Matt Polster (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Toronto FC won 5 times, New England Revolution won 4 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:15 from Toronto FC's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 1.93 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.8%)
Predicted formations: Toronto FC 3-4-2-1 / New England Revolution 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Toronto FC 5, New England Revolution 5
H2H summary: Toronto FC wins 5, draws 6, New England Revolution wins 4

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 16 6 3 50:21 29 54
D L D W W
2 25 12 9 4 61:46 15 45
D D D W L
3 25 13 4 8 41:31 10 43
W W L W D
4 25 11 7 7 45:36 9 40
D W D W W
5 24 11 6 7 45:35 10 39
L D D D D
6 25 10 4 11 44:56 -12 34
W W W D W
7 25 9 6 10 46:39 7 33
W W W W D
8 25 8 8 9 39:33 6 32
W L D D D
9 24 8 8 8 52:59 -7 32
D L L D W
10 25 8 6 11 33:48 -15 30
W L D L D
11 24 6 11 7 30:37 -7 29
D W D L L
12 25 6 11 8 38:46 -8 29
L W D D W
13 25 6 5 14 35:42 -7 23
L L W L L
14 25 6 5 14 29:43 -14 23
D L D L W
15 25 5 6 14 31:51 -20 21
L L L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)