🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
09.09.2026 23:30
BMO Field
Referee: Filip Dujic, Canada
Toronto FC
Match Timeline
Nashville SC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
3'
Niklas Dorsch
Nashville SC
🔄
59'
Benjamin Kuscevic ↔ Nickseon Gomis
Toronto FC
🔄
59'
Lewis Morgan ↔ Theo Corbeanu
Toronto FC
🔄
59'
Jackson Gilman ↔ Matheus Pereira de Souza
Toronto FC
🔄
66'
Elias Saad ↔ Ahmed Qasim
Nashville SC
🔄
70'
Niklas Dorsch ↔ Markus Cimermancic
Toronto FC
72'
Dániel Sallói · Assist: Theo Corbeanu
Toronto FC
🔄
74'
Edvard Sandvik Tagseth ↔ Patrick Yazbek
Nashville SC
🔄
74'
Daniel Lovitz ↔ Andy Najar
Nashville SC
🔄
75'
Josh Sargent ↔ Emilio Aristizábal
Toronto FC
🔄
87'
Cristian Espinoza ↔ Shakur Mohammed
Nashville SC
90+3'
Emilio Aristizábal · Assist: Dániel Sallói
Toronto FC
🟨
90+7'
Luka Gavran
Toronto FC

Toronto FC vs Nashville SC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 57.2%
Odds 2.25
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.57
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 1.69
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
57.2%
2.25
BTTS Yes
86%
1.57
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
1.69
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
82.1%
1.25
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
7.00
Probability Distribution
Toronto FC Win 28.9%
Draw 13.9%
Nashville SC Win 57.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Toronto FC1.27
Nashville SC1.75
Recent Form (Last 5)
Toronto FC Toronto FC
WWDLW
46 GF / 47 GA
Nashville SC Nashville SC
WLDWL
63 GF / 25 GA
Key Stats
1.64
Average Goals Scored
1.8
1.68
Average Goals Conceded
0.71
22
BTTS Yes
14
18
Over 2.5
17
4.43
Shots on Goal
4.35

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Toronto FC Toronto FC 28 matches
Nashville SC Nashville SC 35 matches
Toronto FC Statistic Nashville SC
8 Wins 21
12 Draws 9
8 Losses 5
46 Goals For 63
47 Goals Against 25
1.64 Avg Goals Scored 1.8
1.68 Avg Goals Conceded 0.71
22 BTTS Yes 14
24 Over 1.5 20
18 Over 2.5 17
10 Over 3.5 13
4 Clean Sheets 17
4 Failed To Score 9
4.43 Shots On Goal 4.35
11.78 Total Shots 11.52
5.17 Corners 4.94
45.9% Ball Possession 52.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Nashville SC's more proactive style and Toronto FC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Nashville SC. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Toronto FC expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Nashville SC in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Nashville SC having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Nashville SC carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 52 points while Toronto FC sit 10 on 25, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Nashville SC look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match.

Toronto FC Analysis

Toronto FC sit 10 with 25 points after 22 league matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 10 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 32:38 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Dániel Sallói (3 goals), Emilio Aristizábal (3 goals), Kobe Franklin (2 goals), with creative support from Dániel Sallói (2 assists), Kobe Franklin (2 assists), Jonathan Osorio (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 7 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Nashville SC Analysis

Nashville SC come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 52 points after 22 matches. With 16 wins, 4 draws, and 2 defeats plus a goal balance of 47:17, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by Hany Mukhtar (5 goals), Sam Surridge (4 goals), Warren Madrigal (3 goals), with creative support from Hany Mukhtar (5 assists), Cristian Espinoza (5 assists), Andy Najar (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Toronto FC won 2 times, Nashville SC won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:17 from Toronto FC's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.64 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.1%)
Predicted formations: Toronto FC 4-2-3-1 / Nashville SC 4-4-2
Missing players: Toronto FC 5, Nashville SC 1
H2H summary: Toronto FC wins 2, draws 3, Nashville SC wins 6

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 16 6 3 50:21 29 54
D L D W W
2 25 12 9 4 61:46 15 45
D D D W L
3 25 13 4 8 41:31 10 43
W W L W D
4 25 11 7 7 45:36 9 40
D W D W W
5 24 11 6 7 45:35 10 39
L D D D D
6 25 10 4 11 44:56 -12 34
W W W D W
7 25 8 8 9 39:33 6 32
W L D D D
8 24 8 8 8 52:59 -7 32
D L L D W
9 24 8 6 10 41:39 2 30
W W W D D
10 25 8 6 11 33:48 -15 30
W L D L D
11 24 6 11 7 30:37 -7 29
D W D L L
12 25 6 11 8 38:46 -8 29
L W D D W
13 25 6 5 14 35:42 -7 23
L L W L L
14 25 6 5 14 29:43 -14 23
D L D L W
15 25 5 6 14 31:51 -20 21
L L L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)