🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
05.09.2026 23:30
BMO Field
Referee: T. Penso
Toronto FC
Match Timeline
Chicago Fire
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
13'
M. Haile-Selassie
Chicago Fire
🟨
18'
Samuel Rogers
Chicago Fire
27'
J. Sargent · Assist: D. Mihailovic
Toronto FC
🟨
34'
Markus Cimermancic
Toronto FC
38'
J. Sargent
Toronto FC
🔄
46'
S. Rogers ↔ N. Allen
Chicago Fire
49'
W. Zimmerman
Chicago Fire
54'
J. Sargent · Assist: D. Mihailovic
Toronto FC
🔄
55'
Matheus Pereira ↔ J. Gilman
Toronto FC
58'
M. Haile-Selassie · Assist: R. Lewandowski
Chicago Fire
63'
R. Lewandowski · Assist: P. Zinckernagel
Chicago Fire
🔄
64'
T. Corbeanu ↔ L. Morgan
Toronto FC
🔄
64'
P. Dithejane ↔ R. Lod
Chicago Fire
🔄
78'
D. D'Avilla ↔ M. Pineda
Chicago Fire
🔄
78'
M. Haile-Selassie ↔ S. Oregel
Chicago Fire
🔄
79'
D. Mihailovic ↔ D. Etienne
Toronto FC
🔄
79'
M. Cimermancic ↔ E. Aristizabal
Toronto FC
🟨
86'
Robin Lod
Chicago Fire
🔄
89'
P. Zinckernagel ↔ J. Gomez
Chicago Fire
🟨
90'
Benjamin Kuscevic
Toronto FC
90'
D. Etienne · Assist: D. Salloi
Toronto FC

Toronto FC vs Chicago Fire Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 71.9%
Odds 1.40
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds 1.50
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.57
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
71.9%
1.40
BTTS Yes
88%
1.50
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.57
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
71.3%
1.33
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
6.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
7.50
Probability Distribution
Toronto FC Win 28.1%
Draw 19.3%
Chicago Fire Win 52.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Toronto FC1.47
Chicago Fire1.7
Recent Form (Last 5)
Toronto FC Toronto FC
WWDLW
42 GF / 43 GA
Chicago Fire Chicago Fire
WLDWL
48 GF / 36 GA
Key Stats
1.56
Average Goals Scored
1.78
1.59
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
21
BTTS Yes
18
17
Over 2.5
19
4.27
Shots on Goal
5.24

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Toronto FC Toronto FC 27 matches
Chicago Fire Chicago Fire 27 matches
Toronto FC Statistic Chicago Fire
8 Wins 13
11 Draws 7
8 Losses 7
42 Goals For 48
43 Goals Against 36
1.56 Avg Goals Scored 1.78
1.59 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
21 BTTS Yes 18
23 Over 1.5 21
17 Over 2.5 19
9 Over 3.5 11
4 Clean Sheets 9
4 Failed To Score 3
4.27 Shots On Goal 5.24
11.5 Total Shots 13.86
5.14 Corners 4.29
46% Ball Possession 51.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Chicago Fire's more proactive style and Toronto FC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Toronto FC expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Chicago Fire in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Chicago Fire having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Chicago Fire. Chicago Fire carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 36 points while Toronto FC sit 10 on 24, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Toronto FC Analysis

So far, Toronto FC have built a campaign that leaves them 10 in the table on 24 points from 21 matches. Their overall return of 5 wins, 9 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 31:37 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Emilio Aristizábal (3 goals), Dániel Sallói (2 goals), Kobe Franklin (2 goals), with creative support from Dániel Sallói (2 assists), Kobe Franklin (2 assists), Jonathan Osorio (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Chicago Fire Analysis

Chicago Fire approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 3 on 36 points after 20 outings. They have recorded 11 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, with a 37:26 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Hugo Cuypers (8 goals), Philip Zinckernagel (5 goals), Maren Haile-Selassie (3 goals), with creative support from Philip Zinckernagel (6 assists), Maren Haile-Selassie (4 assists), Andrew Gutman (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the split of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Toronto FC won 4 times, Chicago Fire won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:24 from Toronto FC's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.7%)
Predicted formations: Toronto FC 4-2-3-1 / Chicago Fire 4-3-3
Missing players: Toronto FC 3, Chicago Fire 4
H2H summary: Toronto FC wins 4, draws 5, Chicago Fire wins 6

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 17 6 3 53:21 32 57
W D L D W
2 26 14 4 8 45:33 12 46
W W W L W
3 25 12 9 4 61:46 15 45
D D D W L
4 26 12 7 7 47:37 10 43
W D W D W
5 25 11 6 8 45:38 7 39
L L D D D
6 26 10 6 10 50:42 8 36
W W W W W
7 26 10 4 12 46:60 -14 34
L W W W D
8 26 9 6 11 34:48 -14 33
W W L D L
9 25 8 9 8 54:61 -7 33
D D L L D
10 26 8 8 10 39:34 5 32
L W L D D
11 25 6 11 8 31:39 -8 29
L D W D L
12 26 6 11 9 39:49 -10 29
L L W D D
13 26 7 5 14 37:42 -5 26
W L L W L
14 26 7 5 14 30:43 -13 26
W D L D L
15 26 5 6 15 31:53 -22 21
L L L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)