🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
--.--.---- --:--
BMO Field
Referee: D. Fischer
Toronto FC
Match Timeline
Austin
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
11'
Nicolas Dubersarsky
Austin
VAR
11'
Nicolas Dubersarsky
Austin
29'
J. Bell
Austin
🟨
43'
Raheem Edwards
Toronto FC
🟨
45+2'
Guilherme Biro
Austin
52'
D. Salloi
Toronto FC
🟨
53'
José Cifuentes
Toronto FC
🔄
57'
J. Nelson ↔ R. Taylor
Austin
🔄
62'
R. Edwards ↔ L. Stefanovic
Toronto FC
🔄
62'
D. Etienne ↔ M. Henry
Toronto FC
67'
R. Laryea
Toronto FC
🔄
71'
M. Desler ↔ C. Ramirez
Austin
🔄
71'
N. Dubersarsky ↔ B. Sabovic
Austin
78'
F. Torres
Austin
🟨
79'
Lazar Stefanovic
Toronto FC
82'
C. Ramirez
Austin
88'
K. Franklin
Toronto FC
🟨
89'
Alonso Coello
Toronto FC
🟨
90+10'
Emilio Aristizábal
Toronto FC
🔄
90+4'
J. Cifuentes ↔ E. Aristizabal
Toronto FC
🔄
90+3'
J. Rosales ↔ I. Sanchez
Austin
🔄
90+4'
M. Uzuni ↔ C. Fodrey
Austin

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 87.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 86.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
87.7%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
86.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.9%
-
Probability Distribution
Toronto FC Win 87.7%
Draw 0%
Austin Win 12.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Toronto FC1.55
Austin1.04
Recent Form (Last 5)
Toronto FC Toronto FC
WWDLW
20 GF / 16 GA
Austin Austin
WLDWL
11 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.67
Average Goals Scored
0.85
1.33
Average Goals Conceded
1.38
8
BTTS Yes
6
7
Over 2.5
6
4.71
Shots on Goal
3.86

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Toronto FC Toronto FC 12 matches
Austin Austin 13 matches
Toronto FC Statistic Austin
6 Wins 2
3 Draws 5
3 Losses 6
20 Goals For 11
16 Goals Against 18
1.67 Avg Goals Scored 0.85
1.33 Avg Goals Conceded 1.38
8 BTTS Yes 6
10 Over 1.5 8
7 Over 2.5 6
4 Over 3.5 4
2 Clean Sheets 4
2 Failed To Score 5
4.71 Shots On Goal 3.86
11.29 Total Shots 10.71
6.29 Corners 5.57
45.3% Ball Possession 48%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Toronto FC appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Austin. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Toronto FC expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Austin in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Austin having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Austin. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Austin arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Toronto FC arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 6 with 11 points compared to Austin in 13 on 6, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Toronto FC Analysis

Toronto FC sit 6 with 11 points after 7 league matches. Their overall return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 10:11 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by D. Salloi (2 goals), D. Etienne (1 goals), D. Mihailovic (1 goals), with creative support from D. Mihailovic (2 assists), D. Salloi (1 assists), J. Sargent (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with T. Corbeanu, N. Gomis, H. Wingo unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Austin Analysis

With 6 points from 7 games and a place of 13, Austin still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 3 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 8:11 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on M. Uzuni (2 goals), B. Hines-Ike (1 goals), C. Ramirez (1 goals), with creative support from F. Torres (3 assists), J. Gallagher (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with D. Pereira, B. Vazquez, O. Wolff unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Toronto FC won 1 times, Austin won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:5 from Toronto FC's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 3.33 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Toronto FC 3-4-2-1 / Austin 4-4-2
Missing players: Toronto FC 7, Austin 3
H2H summary: Toronto FC wins 1, draws 1, Austin wins 1
Stats
Toronto FC Toronto FC
Austin Austin
Shots on Goal
11
Shots on Goal
6
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
2
6 Corner Kicks 5
18 Fouls 11
3 Offsides 1
46% Ball Possession 54%
18 Total Shots 12
11 Shots on Goal 6
5 Shots off Goal 4
2 Blocked Shots 2
14 Shots insidebox 6
4 Shots outsidebox 6
3 Goalkeeper Saves 8
389 Total passes 472
313 Passes accurate 382
3.05 expected_goals 1.49
🟨 5 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Toronto FC
Formation
Austin
L. Gavran
L. Gavran
R. Laryea
R. Laryea
A. Coello
A. Coello
Z. Monlouis
Z. Monlouis
R. Edwards
R. Edwards
K. Franklin
K. Franklin
J. Cifuentes
J. Cifuentes
J. Osorio
J. Osorio
J. Sargent
J. Sargent
D. Etienne
D. Etienne
D. Salloi
D. Salloi
B. Stuver
B. Stuver
M. Desler
M. Desler
O. Svatok
O. Svatok
J. Bell
J. Bell
Guilherme Biro
Guilherme Biro
J. Gallagher
J. Gallagher
N. Dubersarsky
N. Dubersarsky
J. Rosales
J. Rosales
J. Nelson
J. Nelson
F. Torres
F. Torres
M. Uzuni
M. Uzuni
Toronto FC 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
L. Gavran
G
22
R. Laryea
⚽ 67'
D
14
A. Coello
🟨 89'
D
12
Z. Monlouis
D
44
R. Edwards
↓ 62' 🟨 43'
D
19
K. Franklin
⚽ 88'
M
8
J. Cifuentes
↓ 90+4' 🟨 53'
M
21
J. Osorio
M
9
J. Sargent
F
11
D. Etienne
↓ 62'
F
20
D. Salloi
⚽ 52'
F
Substitutes
23
W. Yarbrough
G
76
L. Stefanovic
↑ 62' 🟨 79'
D
99
J. Vilsaint
F
75
R. Fisher
D
29
D. Kerr
F
71
M. Cimermancic
M
38
J. Gilman
D
17
E. Aristizabal
↑ 90+4' 🟨 90+10'
F
78
M. Henry
↑ 62'
M
Austin 4-4-2
Starting XI
1
B. Stuver
G
3
M. Desler
↓ 71'
D
5
O. Svatok
D
15
J. Bell
⚽ 29'
D
29
Guilherme Biro
🟨 45+2'
D
17
J. Gallagher
M
20
N. Dubersarsky
↓ 71' 🟨 11'
M
30
J. Rosales
↓ 90+3'
M
7
J. Nelson
↓ 57'
M
11
F. Torres
⚽ 78'
F
10
M. Uzuni
↓ 90+4'
F
Substitutes
12
D. Las
G
6
I. Sanchez
↑ 90+3'
M
21
C. Ramirez
⚽ 82' ↑ 71'
F
19
C. Fodrey
↑ 90+4'
M
16
R. Taylor
↑ 57'
F
14
B. Sabovic
↑ 71'
M
23
Z. Kolmanic
D
35
M. Djordjevic
D
38
E. Torres
M
Last matches: Toronto FC
22.07.26
Maj
Toronto FC
New England Revolution
0
0
D
16.07.26
Maj
Toronto FC
CF Montreal
0
0
D
24.05.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Chicago Fire
1
2
L
16.05.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Charlotte
1
3
L
09.05.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Inter Miami
2
4
L
02.05.26
Maj
Toronto FC
San Jose Earthquakes
1
1
D
25.04.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Atlanta United FC
1
2
L
22.04.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Philadelphia Union
3
3
D
11.04.26
Maj
Toronto FC
FC Cincinnati
1
1
D
04.04.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Colorado Rapids
3
2
W
21.03.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Columbus Crew
2
1
W
14.03.26
Maj
Toronto FC
New York Red Bulls
1
1
D
08.03.26
Maj
Toronto FC
FC Cincinnati
1
0
W
01.03.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Vancouver Whitecaps
0
3
L
22.02.26
Maj
Toronto FC
FC Dallas
2
3
L
14.02.26
Fri
Toronto FC
Polessya
2
1
W
11.02.26
Fri
Toronto FC
Fredrikstad
0
1
L
08.02.26
Fri
Toronto FC
AIK Stockholm
2
2
D
31.01.26
Fri
Toronto FC
Jeonbuk Motors
2
0
W
28.01.26
Fri
Toronto FC
Incheon United
4
1
W
Last matches: Austin
23.07.26
Maj
Austin
Seattle Sounders
3
1
W
08.07.26
Fri
Austin
Sporting JAX
4
0
W
03.07.26
Fri
Austin
Club Queretaro
0
1
L
23.05.26
Maj
Austin
St. Louis City
0
3
L
17.05.26
Maj
Austin
Sporting Kansas City
1
2
L
14.05.26
Maj
Austin
San Diego
0
5
L
10.05.26
Maj
Austin
Minnesota United FC
2
2
D
03.05.26
Maj
Austin
St. Louis City
2
0
W
26.04.26
Maj
Austin
Houston Dynamo
2
0
W
23.04.26
Maj
Austin
San Jose Earthquakes
1
5
L
11.04.26
Maj
Austin
Los Angeles Galaxy
1
2
L
04.04.26
Maj
Austin
Inter Miami
2
2
D
22.03.26
Maj
Austin
Los Angeles FC
0
0
D
15.03.26
Maj
Austin
Real Salt Lake
1
2
L
08.03.26
Maj
Austin
Charlotte
1
3
L
01.03.26
Maj
Austin
DC United
1
0
W
22.02.26
Maj
Austin
Minnesota United FC
2
2
D
14.02.26
Fri
Austin
Sporting Kansas City
0
2
L
11.02.26
Fri
Austin
Chicago Fire
2
2
D
07.02.26
Fri
Austin
St. Louis City
0
1
L
H2H: Toronto FC vs Austin
18.04.26
H2H
Toronto FC
Austin
3
3
D
14.09.24
H2H
Toronto FC
Austin
2
1
W
21.05.23
H2H
Austin
Toronto FC
1
0
L
Last matches: Toronto FC
09.05.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Inter Miami
2
4
L
02.05.26
Maj
Toronto FC
San Jose Earthquakes
1
1
D
25.04.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Atlanta United FC
1
2
L
22.04.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Philadelphia Union
3
3
D
11.04.26
Maj
Toronto FC
FC Cincinnati
1
1
D
04.04.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Colorado Rapids
3
2
W
21.03.26
Maj
Toronto FC
Columbus Crew
2
1
W
14.03.26
Maj
Toronto FC
New York Red Bulls
1
1
D
14.02.26
Fri
Toronto FC
Polessya
2
1
W
11.02.26
Fri
Toronto FC
Fredrikstad
0
1
L
08.02.26
Fri
Toronto FC
AIK Stockholm
2
2
D
31.01.26
Fri
Toronto FC
Jeonbuk Motors
2
0
W
28.01.26
Fri
Toronto FC
Incheon United
4
1
W
H2H at home: Toronto FC
18.04.26
H2H
Toronto FC
Austin
3
3
D
14.09.24
H2H
Toronto FC
Austin
2
1
W
Last matches: Austin
23.05.26
Maj
Austin
St. Louis City
0
3
L
14.05.26
Maj
Austin
San Diego
0
5
L
10.05.26
Maj
Austin
Minnesota United FC
2
2
D
23.04.26
Maj
Austin
San Jose Earthquakes
1
5
L
04.04.26
Maj
Austin
Inter Miami
2
2
D
15.03.26
Maj
Austin
Real Salt Lake
1
2
L
08.03.26
Maj
Austin
Charlotte
1
3
L
14.02.26
Fri
Austin
Sporting Kansas City
0
2
L
07.02.26
Fri
Austin
St. Louis City
0
1
L
01.02.26
Fri
Austin
New York City FC
0
2
L
H2H away: Austin
18.04.26
H2H
Toronto FC
Austin
3
3
D
14.09.24
H2H
Toronto FC
Austin
2
1
L

Missing Players

Toronto FC 7 missing
-
B. Kuscevic
Questionable Groin Injury
OUT
-
T. Corbeanu
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
N. Gomis
Missing Fixture Achilles Tendon Injury
OUT
-
Matheus Pereira
Missing Fixture Groin Injury
OUT
-
H. Wingo
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
D. Mihailovic
Missing Fixture Pelvis Injury
OUT
-
W. Zimmerman
Missing Fixture Calf Injury
OUT
Austin 3 missing
-
D. Pereira
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
B. Vazquez
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
O. Wolff
Missing Fixture Groin Injury
OUT