BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Antonio Guimaraes de Almeida
Tombense
Match Timeline
Real Noroeste
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
24'
J. Souza
Tombense
37'
Romulo
Real Noroeste
🟥
61'
Allan Camilatto
Real Noroeste
🟥
77'
Joao Vitor
Tombense

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 45.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 60.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
81.9%
-
BTTS BTTS No
45.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
60.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Tombense Win 81.9%
Draw 0%
Real Noroeste Win 18.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tombense1.29
Real Noroeste0.57
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tombense Tombense
WWDLW
9 GF / 4 GA
Real Noroeste Real Noroeste
WLDWL
4 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
1.29
Average Goals Scored
0.57
0.57
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
2
BTTS Yes
3
3
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tombense Tombense 7 matches
Real Noroeste Real Noroeste 7 matches
Tombense Statistic Real Noroeste
3 Wins 1
3 Draws 2
1 Losses 4
9 Goals For 4
4 Goals Against 9
1.29 Avg Goals Scored 0.57
0.57 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
2 BTTS Yes 3
3 Over 1.5 4
3 Over 2.5 3
2 Over 3.5 1
4 Clean Sheets 2
3 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Tombense's more proactive style and Real Noroeste's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Real Noroeste having the stronger overall control. Tombense arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 12 points compared to Real Noroeste in 6 on 5, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Real Noroeste.

Tombense Analysis

Tombense come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 1 with 12 points from 7 matches. Their overall return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 9:4 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Cesar (3 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Real Noroeste Analysis

From their first 7 matches, Real Noroeste have collected 5 points and now occupy 6 place in the table. Their overall return of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 4:9 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Joao Bravo (2 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Tombense won 0 times, Real Noroeste won 0 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:1 from Tombense's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
H2H summary: Tombense wins 0, draws 2, Real Noroeste wins 0
Last matches: Tombense
27.06.26
Ser
Tombense
CRAC
0
0
D
21.06.26
Ser
Tombense
CRAC
0
1
L
14.06.26
Ser
Tombense
Vitória ES
0
0
D
30.05.26
Ser
Tombense
Porto BA
3
1
W
16.05.26
Ser
Tombense
Democrata GV
3
1
W
10.05.26
Ser
Tombense
Rio Branco ES
2
2
D
03.05.26
Ser
Tombense
Rio Branco ES
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
Tombense
Democrata GV
0
1
L
19.04.26
Ser
Tombense
Real Noroeste
0
0
D
11.04.26
Ser
Tombense
Porto BA
3
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Tombense
Vitória ES
1
0
W
Last matches: Real Noroeste
14.06.26
Ser
Real Noroeste
Democrata GV
0
0
D
30.05.26
Ser
Real Noroeste
Vitória ES
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
Real Noroeste
Rio Branco ES
0
0
D
09.05.26
Ser
Real Noroeste
Porto BA
2
1
W
02.05.26
Ser
Real Noroeste
Porto BA
1
2
L
26.04.26
Ser
Real Noroeste
Rio Branco ES
0
2
L
19.04.26
Ser
Real Noroeste
Tombense
0
0
D
11.04.26
Ser
Real Noroeste
Vitória ES
1
3
L
06.04.26
Ser
Real Noroeste
Democrata GV
0
1
L
H2H: Tombense vs Real Noroeste
23.05.26
H2H
Tombense
Real Noroeste
1
1
D
19.04.26
H2H
Real Noroeste
Tombense
0
0
D
Last matches: Tombense
27.06.26
Ser
Tombense
CRAC
0
0
D
14.06.26
Ser
Tombense
Vitória ES
0
0
D
16.05.26
Ser
Tombense
Democrata GV
3
1
W
03.05.26
Ser
Tombense
Rio Branco ES
0
0
D
11.04.26
Ser
Tombense
Porto BA
3
0
W
H2H at home: Tombense
23.05.26
H2H
Tombense
Real Noroeste
1
1
D
Last matches: Real Noroeste
30.05.26
Ser
Real Noroeste
Vitória ES
1
1
D
09.05.26
Ser
Real Noroeste
Porto BA
2
1
W
26.04.26
Ser
Real Noroeste
Rio Branco ES
0
2
L
06.04.26
Ser
Real Noroeste
Democrata GV
0
1
L
H2H away: Real Noroeste
23.05.26
H2H
Tombense
Real Noroeste
1
1
D