✉️ topbetpredict.com@gmail.com Register
MEXICO › LIGA MX
--.--.---- --:--
Toluca
FT
4 - 1
Leon
Estadio Nemesio Diez
Referee: D. Quintero
Toluca
Match Timeline
Leon
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
5'
S. Cordova · Assist: A. Vega
Toluca
🟨
21'
L. Garcia
Toluca
🟨
22'
F. Rossi
Toluca
🟨
23'
E. Rodriguez
Leon
🔄
28'
O. Virgen ↔ F. Romero
Toluca
🟨
34'
S. Barreiro
Leon
⚽
45'
D. Cambindo · Assist: I. Diaz
Leon
🔄
46'
M. Isais ↔ J. Gallardo
Toluca
🔄
46'
F. Rossi ↔ J. Diaz
Toluca
🔄
46'
I. Moreno ↔ B. Colula
Leon
🔄
46'
S. Barreiro ↔ P. Bellon
Leon
🔄
56'
E. Rodriguez ↔ J. P. Dominguez Chonteco
Leon
🔄
56'
F. Beltran Cruz ↔ D. Arcila
Leon
🟨
58'
A. Briseno
Toluca
⚽
59'
F. Arce · Assist: J. Gallardo
Toluca
🔄
63'
E. Orta ↔ Bruno Mendez
Toluca
🟨
65'
A. Briseno
Toluca
🟥
65'
A. Briseno
Toluca
🔄
70'
R. Echeverria ↔ A. Alvarado
Leon
🔄
72'
S. Cordova ↔ N. Castro
Toluca
🟨
73'
J. Diaz
Toluca
⚽
73'
J. Diaz · Assist: J. Gallardo
Toluca
⚽
76'
N. Castro · Assist: J. Diaz
Toluca
🟨
80'
B. Colula
Leon

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 70.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 89.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 88.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
70.6%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
89.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
88.1%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Toluca Win 70.6%
Draw 10.3%
Leon Win 19.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Toluca1.86
Leon1.04
Recent Form (Last 5)
Toluca Toluca
WWDLW
74 GF / 39 GA
Leon Leon
WLDWL
35 GF / 59 GA
Key Stats
1.9
Average Goals Scored
1.06
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.79
22
BTTS Yes
17
20
Over 2.5
18
5.74
Shots on Goal
4.39

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Toluca Toluca 39 matches
Leon Leon 33 matches
Toluca Statistic Leon
21 Wins 10
11 Draws 5
7 Losses 18
74 Goals For 35
39 Goals Against 59
1.9 Avg Goals Scored 1.06
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.79
22 BTTS Yes 17
28 Over 1.5 27
20 Over 2.5 18
15 Over 3.5 9
13 Clean Sheets 6
9 Failed To Score 11
5.74 Shots On Goal 4.39
17.51 Total Shots 13.27
5.64 Corners 4.94
56.8% Ball Possession 52.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Toluca won 4 times, Leon won 3 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 27:24 from Toluca's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.64 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.7%)
Predicted formations: Toluca 4-2-3-1 / Leon 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Toluca wins 4, draws 7, Leon wins 3
Stats
Toluca Toluca
Leon Leon
Shots on Goal
7
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
5
2 Corner Kicks 7
14 Fouls 14
1 Offsides 1
42% Ball Possession 58%
15 Total Shots 16
7 Shots on Goal 5
5 Shots off Goal 6
3 Blocked Shots 5
7 Shots insidebox 9
8 Shots outsidebox 7
4 Goalkeeper Saves 3
326 Total passes 438
245 Passes accurate 366
0.94 expected_goals 1.07
🟨 5 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 1 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Toluca
Formation
Leon
L. Garcia
L. Garcia
D. Barbosa
D. Barbosa
A. Briseno
A. Briseno
E. Orta
↓
E. Orta
M. Isais
↓
M. Isais
F. Arce
⚽
F. Arce
P. Perez
P. Perez
O. Virgen
↓
O. Virgen
S. Cordova
⚽ ↓
S. Cordova
A. Vega
🎯
A. Vega
F. Rossi
↓
F. Rossi
O. Garcia
O. Garcia
I. Moreno
↓
I. Moreno
V. Gauthier
V. Gauthier
S. Barreiro
↓
S. Barreiro
S. Reyes
S. Reyes
I. Rodriguez
I. Rodriguez
E. Rodriguez
↓
E. Rodriguez
R. Echeverria
↓
R. Echeverria
F. Beltran Cruz
↓
F. Beltran Cruz
I. Diaz
🎯
I. Diaz
D. Cambindo
⚽
D. Cambindo
Toluca 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
22
L. Garcia
🟨 21'
G
2
D. Barbosa
D
3
A. Briseno
🟨 58' 🟨 65' 🟥 65'
D
206
E. Orta
↓ 63'
D
17
M. Isais
↓ 46'
D
24
F. Arce
⚽ 59'
M
15
P. Perez
M
23
O. Virgen
↓ 28'
M
7
S. Cordova
⚽ 5' ↓ 72'
M
9
A. Vega
🎯 5'
M
27
F. Rossi
↓ 46' 🟨 22'
F
Substitutes
1
H. Gonzalez
G
33
V. Arteaga
M
20
J. Gallardo
🎯 59' 🎯 73' ↑ 46'
D
10
J. Angulo
M
4
Bruno Mendez
↑ 63'
D
29
J. Diaz
⚽ 73' 🎯 76' ↑ 46' 🟨 73'
M
8
N. Castro
⚽ 76' ↑ 72'
M
5
F. Romero
↑ 28'
M
192
L. Navarrete
D
184
S. Aceves
Leon 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
23
O. Garcia
G
7
I. Moreno
↓ 46'
D
2
V. Gauthier
D
21
S. Barreiro
↓ 46' 🟨 34'
D
26
S. Reyes
D
29
I. Rodriguez
M
99
E. Rodriguez
↓ 56' 🟨 23'
M
20
R. Echeverria
↓ 70'
M
6
F. Beltran Cruz
↓ 56'
11
I. Diaz
🎯 45'
M
27
D. Cambindo
⚽ 45'
F
Substitutes
1
Garcia Jordan
G
18
R. Funes Mori
F
16
J. Cortizo
M
28
D. Ramirez
M
4
B. Colula
↑ 46' 🟨 80'
D
25
P. Bellon
↑ 46'
D
19
A. Alvarado
↑ 70'
F
8
J. P. Dominguez Chonteco
↑ 56'
M
22
N. Vallejo
F
13
D. Arcila
↑ 56'
M
Last matches: Toluca
31.05.26
CON
Toluca
Tigres UANL
1
1
D
10.05.26
Lig
Toluca
CF Pachuca
0
2
L
07.05.26
CON
Toluca
Los Angeles FC
4
0
W
04.05.26
Lig
Toluca
CF Pachuca
0
1
L
30.04.26
CON
Toluca
Los Angeles FC
1
2
L
23.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Mazatlán
3
4
L
19.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Club America
1
2
L
16.04.26
CON
Toluca
Los Angeles Galaxy
3
0
W
13.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Atletico San Luis
1
1
D
09.04.26
CON
Toluca
Los Angeles Galaxy
4
2
W
04.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Club Queretaro
0
1
L
22.03.26
Lig
Toluca
CF Pachuca
1
1
D
19.03.26
CON
Toluca
San Diego
4
0
W
15.03.26
Lig
Toluca
Atlas
1
1
D
12.03.26
CON
Toluca
San Diego
2
3
L
08.03.26
Lig
Toluca
FC Juarez
3
1
W
04.03.26
Lig
Toluca
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
3
2
W
28.02.26
Lig
Toluca
Guadalajara Chivas
2
0
W
22.02.26
Lig
Toluca
Necaxa
3
0
W
14.02.26
Lig
Toluca
Club Tijuana
1
0
W
Last matches: Leon
22.04.26
Lig
Leon
Club America
2
3
L
19.04.26
Lig
Leon
FC Juarez
3
1
W
11.04.26
Lig
Leon
Puebla
1
0
W
05.04.26
Lig
Leon
Atlas
2
0
W
22.03.26
Lig
Leon
Atletico San Luis
2
1
W
19.03.26
Lig
Leon
Guadalajara Chivas
0
5
L
15.03.26
Lig
Leon
Club Tijuana
0
3
L
07.03.26
Lig
Leon
Mazatlán
2
4
L
01.03.26
Lig
Leon
Necaxa
2
1
W
22.02.26
Lig
Leon
Santos Laguna
2
1
W
15.02.26
Lig
Leon
Monterrey
0
1
L
07.02.26
Lig
Leon
Club Queretaro
0
2
L
01.02.26
Lig
Leon
Tigres UANL
1
2
L
18.01.26
Lig
Leon
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1
1
D
14.01.26
Lig
Leon
CF Pachuca
1
2
L
11.01.26
Lig
Leon
Cruz Azul
2
1
W
03.01.26
Fri
Leon
Necaxa
1
2
L
09.11.25
Lig
Leon
Puebla
1
2
L
02.11.25
Lig
Leon
Club America
0
2
L
26.10.25
Lig
Leon
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1
1
D
H2H: Toluca vs Leon
26.04.26
H2H
Toluca
Leon
4
1
W
05.10.25
H2H
Leon
Toluca
2
4
W
09.02.25
H2H
Leon
Toluca
3
3
D
02.11.24
H2H
Toluca
Leon
2
2
D
03.02.24
H2H
Toluca
Leon
4
1
W
21.10.23
H2H
Leon
Toluca
1
0
L
29.01.23
H2H
Toluca
Leon
0
0
D
27.07.22
H2H
Leon
Toluca
0
1
W
02.05.22
H2H
Leon
Toluca
4
4
D
31.10.21
H2H
Toluca
Leon
0
0
D
10.05.21
H2H
Leon
Toluca
2
2
D
05.04.21
H2H
Leon
Toluca
2
1
L
08.11.20
H2H
Toluca
Leon
2
2
D
19.04.20
H2H
Toluca
Leon
0
0
D
10.11.19
H2H
Leon
Toluca
4
0
L
Last matches: Toluca
31.05.26
CON
Toluca
Tigres UANL
1
1
D
07.05.26
CON
Toluca
Los Angeles FC
4
0
W
04.05.26
Lig
Toluca
CF Pachuca
0
1
L
13.04.26
Lig
Toluca
Atletico San Luis
1
1
D
09.04.26
CON
Toluca
Los Angeles Galaxy
4
2
W
19.03.26
CON
Toluca
San Diego
4
0
W
15.03.26
Lig
Toluca
Atlas
1
1
D
08.03.26
Lig
Toluca
FC Juarez
3
1
W
28.02.26
Lig
Toluca
Guadalajara Chivas
2
0
W
14.02.26
Lig
Toluca
Club Tijuana
1
0
W
07.02.26
Lig
Toluca
Cruz Azul
1
1
D
15.01.26
Lig
Toluca
Santos Laguna
3
1
W
15.12.25
Lig
Toluca
Tigres UANL
2
1
W
07.12.25
Lig
Toluca
Monterrey
3
2
W
30.11.25
Lig
Toluca
FC Juarez
0
0
D
09.11.25
Lig
Toluca
Club America
2
0
W
27.10.25
Lig
Toluca
CF Pachuca
2
2
D
18.10.25
Lig
Toluca
Club Queretaro
4
0
W
28.09.25
Lig
Toluca
Mazatlán
3
1
W
25.09.25
Lig
Toluca
Monterrey
6
2
W
H2H at home: Toluca
26.04.26
H2H
Toluca
Leon
4
1
W
02.11.24
H2H
Toluca
Leon
2
2
D
03.02.24
H2H
Toluca
Leon
4
1
W
29.01.23
H2H
Toluca
Leon
0
0
D
31.10.21
H2H
Toluca
Leon
0
0
D
08.11.20
H2H
Toluca
Leon
2
2
D
19.04.20
H2H
Toluca
Leon
0
0
D
Last matches: Leon
11.04.26
Lig
Leon
Puebla
1
0
W
22.03.26
Lig
Leon
Atletico San Luis
2
1
W
19.03.26
Lig
Leon
Guadalajara Chivas
0
5
L
07.03.26
Lig
Leon
Mazatlán
2
4
L
15.02.26
Lig
Leon
Monterrey
0
1
L
07.02.26
Lig
Leon
Club Queretaro
0
2
L
18.01.26
Lig
Leon
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
1
1
D
14.01.26
Lig
Leon
CF Pachuca
1
2
L
02.11.25
Lig
Leon
Club America
0
2
L
23.10.25
Lig
Leon
Atlas
0
2
L
18.10.25
Lig
Leon
Santos Laguna
0
2
L
27.09.25
Lig
Leon
FC Juarez
0
2
L
20.09.25
Lig
Leon
Club Tijuana
0
5
L
14.09.25
Lig
Leon
Tigres UANL
0
0
D
16.08.25
Lig
Leon
Necaxa
1
0
W
27.07.25
Lig
Leon
Cruz Azul
1
4
L
12.05.25
Lig
Leon
Cruz Azul
1
2
L
16.04.25
Lig
Leon
Cruz Azul
1
2
L
05.04.25
Lig
Leon
Club Queretaro
1
1
D
15.03.25
Lig
Leon
Necaxa
1
2
L
H2H away: Leon
26.04.26
H2H
Toluca
Leon
4
1
L
02.11.24
H2H
Toluca
Leon
2
2
D
03.02.24
H2H
Toluca
Leon
4
1
L
29.01.23
H2H
Toluca
Leon
0
0
D
31.10.21
H2H
Toluca
Leon
0
0
D
08.11.20
H2H
Toluca
Leon
2
2
D
19.04.20
H2H
Toluca
Leon
0
0
D

Standings

Liga MX, Clausura 2026
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
17 10 6 1 34:17 17 36
L D W L D
2
Guadalajara Chivas
17 11 3 3 33:17 16 36
L D W L D
3
Cruz Azul
17 9 6 2 31:18 13 33
W D W D W
4
CF Pachuca
17 9 4 4 25:19 6 31
L W W W L
5
Toluca Home
17 8 6 3 28:16 12 30
L L W L L
6
Atlas
17 7 5 5 16:18 -2 26
L L W D W
7
Tigres UANL
17 7 4 6 28:18 10 25
L W W D D
8
Club America
17 7 4 6 20:17 3 25
D D L W W
9
Club Tijuana
17 5 8 4 19:17 2 23
D W D W W
10
Leon Away
17 7 1 9 22:32 -10 22
L L W W W
11
Club Queretaro
17 4 8 5 17:21 -4 20
W D D W D
12
FC Juarez
17 5 4 8 26:32 -6 19
W L L L D
13
Monterrey
17 5 3 9 22:24 -2 18
L W L D L
14
Atletico San Luis
17 5 3 9 24:27 -3 18
L W L D W
15
Necaxa
17 5 3 9 19:25 -6 18
L D D L W
16
Mazatlán
17 4 3 10 22:37 -15 15
L W D L L
17
Puebla
17 3 4 10 13:26 -13 13
L L L L D
18
Santos Laguna
17 3 3 11 20:38 -18 12
W L L L D
Playoffs