JAPAN › J1 LEAGUE
18.04.2026 06:00
Ajinomoto Stadium
Referee: K. Fukushima
Tokyo Verdy
Match Timeline
JEF United Chiba
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
44'
Ryota Kuboniwa
JEF United Chiba
🟨
48'
Takayuki Mae
JEF United Chiba
⚽
51'
S. Teranuma
Tokyo Verdy
🔄
62'
M. Himeno ↔ T. Tsukui
JEF United Chiba
🔄
62'
H. Goya ↔ Carlinhos Junior
JEF United Chiba
🔄
62'
T. Yasui ↔ Eduardo
JEF United Chiba
🔄
62'
Z. Issaka ↔ N. Sugiyama
JEF United Chiba
🔄
70'
I. Kumatoriya ↔ Y. Matsuhashi
Tokyo Verdy
🔄
70'
Y. Fukuda ↔ K. Saito
Tokyo Verdy
🔄
81'
D. Ishikawa ↔ N. Tsubaki
JEF United Chiba
🔄
87'
T. Yoshida ↔ T. Inami
Tokyo Verdy
🔄
87'
S. Teranuma ↔ R. Shirai
Tokyo Verdy

Tokyo Verdy vs JEF United Chiba Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 81.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 79.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 69.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
81.6%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
79.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
69.6%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Tokyo Verdy Win 81.6%
Draw 5.1%
JEF United Chiba Win 13.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Tokyo Verdy1.36
JEF United Chiba1.37
Recent Form (Last 5)
Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy
WWDLW
16 GF / 25 GA
JEF United Chiba JEF United Chiba
WLDWL
11 GF / 17 GA
Key Stats
1.23
Average Goals Scored
1
1.92
Average Goals Conceded
1.55
7
BTTS Yes
8
7
Over 2.5
6
2.9
Shots on Goal
4.1

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Tokyo Verdy Tokyo Verdy 13 matches
JEF United Chiba JEF United Chiba 11 matches
Tokyo Verdy Statistic JEF United Chiba
3 Wins 2
3 Draws 3
7 Losses 6
16 Goals For 11
25 Goals Against 17
1.23 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.92 Avg Goals Conceded 1.55
7 BTTS Yes 8
11 Over 1.5 10
7 Over 2.5 6
6 Over 3.5 1
2 Clean Sheets 1
5 Failed To Score 3
2.9 Shots On Goal 4.1
8.8 Total Shots 11.3
4.2 Corners 4.6
44.9% Ball Possession 48.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Tokyo Verdy's more proactive style and JEF United Chiba's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Tokyo Verdy expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and JEF United Chiba in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward JEF United Chiba having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. JEF United Chiba arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Tokyo Verdy arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 15 points compared to JEF United Chiba in 10 on 9, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward JEF United Chiba.

Tokyo Verdy Analysis

Tokyo Verdy come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 15 points after 10 matches. With 6 wins, 0 draws, and 4 defeats plus a goal balance of 16:15, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by I. Someno (4 goals), T. Yoshida (3 goals), Y. Fukuda (2 goals), with creative support from K. Morita (3 assists), I. Someno (1 assists), H. Yamami (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

JEF United Chiba Analysis

With 9 points from 10 games and a place of 10, JEF United Chiba still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 2 wins, 0 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 10:18, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through D. Ishikawa (2 goals), Hiroto Goya (2 goals), T. Tsukui (2 goals), with creative support from Hiroto Goya (1 assists), Z. Issaka (1 assists), Eduardo (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 0 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Tokyo Verdy won 7 times, JEF United Chiba won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:22 from Tokyo Verdy's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.9%)
Predicted formations: Tokyo Verdy 3-4-2-1 / JEF United Chiba 4-4-2
H2H summary: Tokyo Verdy wins 7, draws 4, JEF United Chiba wins 4

Standings

East
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 15 0 3 31:11 20 45
?
2 18 13 0 5 32:18 14 37
?
3 18 13 0 5 28:22 6 37
?
4 18 10 0 8 26:28 -2 28
?
5 18 10 0 8 22:26 -4 28
?
6 18 7 0 11 25:22 3 25
?
7 18 6 0 12 28:31 -3 20
?
8 18 7 0 11 22:24 -2 20
?
9 18 6 0 12 23:39 -16 18
?
10 18 3 0 15 18:34 -16 12
?
Promotion - J1 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place)