KENYA SUPER LEAGUE
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Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 79.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 18.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
79.9%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
18.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Talanta Win 79.9%
Draw 0%
Nzoia Sugar Win 20.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Talanta1.12
Nzoia Sugar0.98
Recent Form (Last 5)
Talanta Talanta
WWDLW
42 GF / 34 GA
Nzoia Sugar Nzoia Sugar
WLDWL
33 GF / 32 GA
Key Stats
1.24
Average Goals Scored
0.97
1
Average Goals Conceded
0.94
14
BTTS Yes
11
15
Over 2.5
10
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Talanta Talanta 34 matches
Nzoia Sugar Nzoia Sugar 34 matches
Talanta Statistic Nzoia Sugar
14 Wins 10
9 Draws 14
11 Losses 10
42 Goals For 33
34 Goals Against 32
1.24 Avg Goals Scored 0.97
1 Avg Goals Conceded 0.94
14 BTTS Yes 11
19 Over 1.5 18
15 Over 2.5 10
7 Over 3.5 8
15 Clean Sheets 15
12 Failed To Score 16
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Nzoia Sugar having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Nzoia Sugar arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Nzoia Sugar. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Talanta Analysis

Talanta sit 8 with 51 points after 34 league matches. The record of 14 wins, 9 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 42:34 goal balance, points toward good form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking threat comes through their main attacking players, while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, the record of 8 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Nzoia Sugar Analysis

Nzoia Sugar sit 11 with 44 points after 34 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 10 wins, 14 draws, and 10 defeats with a 33:32 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Talanta won 2 times, Nzoia Sugar won 1 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:6 from Talanta's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.75 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
H2H summary: Talanta wins 2, draws 5, Nzoia Sugar wins 1
Last matches: Talanta
13.06.26
Sup
Talanta
Gucha Stars
2
3
L
07.06.26
Sup
Talanta
Nairobi City Stars
5
1
W
01.06.26
Sup
Talanta
3K
2
3
L
22.05.26
Sup
Talanta
Fortune Sacco
4
3
W
17.05.26
Sup
Talanta
Kabati Youth FC
3
0
W
10.05.26
Sup
Talanta
Mombasa Elite
3
0
W
02.05.26
Sup
Talanta
MOFA
3
3
D
25.04.26
Sup
Talanta
Naivas
1
4
L
19.04.26
Sup
Talanta
MCF
0
0
D
11.04.26
Sup
Talanta
Mwatate United
2
1
W
03.04.26
Sup
Talanta
Equity Bank
0
2
L
29.03.26
Sup
Talanta
Kibera Black Stars
1
2
L
23.03.26
Sup
Talanta
Migori Youth
1
3
L
14.03.26
Sup
Talanta
Darajani Gogo
1
1
D
08.03.26
Sup
Talanta
Soy United
0
0
D
28.02.26
Sup
Talanta
Kisumu All Stars
5
1
W
22.02.26
Sup
Talanta
Luanda Villa
1
0
W
14.02.26
Sup
Talanta
Vihiga United FC
3
1
W
31.01.26
Sup
Talanta
Darajani Gogo
1
0
W
24.01.26
Sup
Talanta
Equity Bank
0
0
D
Last matches: Nzoia Sugar
13.06.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kibera Black Stars
1
0
W
07.06.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
01.06.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Fortune Sacco
3
1
W
24.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Naivas
0
1
L
17.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
MCF
0
1
L
09.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Luanda Villa
3
3
D
03.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kabati Youth FC
1
1
D
26.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Migori Youth
0
4
L
19.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Darajani Gogo
2
0
W
12.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Soy United
1
0
W
04.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
MOFA
0
2
L
29.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
3K
1
3
L
21.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Mwatate United
3
1
W
14.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Equity Bank
0
1
L
08.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kisumu All Stars
1
0
W
01.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Nairobi City Stars
0
0
D
20.02.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Vihiga United FC
4
0
W
15.02.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Gucha Stars
0
2
L
31.01.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Equity Bank
0
1
L
25.01.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
MOFA
1
1
D
H2H: Talanta vs Nzoia Sugar
27.05.26
H2H
Talanta
Nzoia Sugar
2
0
W
26.10.25
H2H
Nzoia Sugar
Talanta
0
0
D
10.03.24
H2H
Nzoia Sugar
Talanta
1
1
D
01.11.23
H2H
Talanta
Nzoia Sugar
0
0
D
03.05.23
H2H
Nzoia Sugar
Talanta
1
0
L
25.02.23
H2H
Talanta
Nzoia Sugar
0
0
D
23.01.22
H2H
Talanta
Nzoia Sugar
2
2
D
19.01.22
H2H
Nzoia Sugar
Talanta
2
3
W
Last matches: Talanta
07.06.26
Sup
Talanta
Nairobi City Stars
5
1
W
22.05.26
Sup
Talanta
Fortune Sacco
4
3
W
10.05.26
Sup
Talanta
Mombasa Elite
3
0
W
25.04.26
Sup
Talanta
Naivas
1
4
L
11.04.26
Sup
Talanta
Mwatate United
2
1
W
29.03.26
Sup
Talanta
Kibera Black Stars
1
2
L
14.03.26
Sup
Talanta
Darajani Gogo
1
1
D
28.02.26
Sup
Talanta
Kisumu All Stars
5
1
W
14.02.26
Sup
Talanta
Vihiga United FC
3
1
W
24.01.26
Sup
Talanta
Equity Bank
0
0
D
09.01.26
Sup
Talanta
MCF
2
1
W
13.12.25
Sup
Talanta
MOFA
0
0
D
03.12.25
Sup
Talanta
Kabati Youth FC
2
0
W
22.11.25
Sup
Talanta
Soy United
2
1
W
08.11.25
Sup
Talanta
Luanda Villa
0
1
L
29.10.25
Sup
Talanta
Gucha Stars
0
0
D
11.10.25
Sup
Talanta
3K
0
0
D
05.10.25
Sup
Talanta
Migori Youth
0
1
L
H2H at home: Talanta
27.05.26
H2H
Talanta
Nzoia Sugar
2
0
W
01.11.23
H2H
Talanta
Nzoia Sugar
0
0
D
25.02.23
H2H
Talanta
Nzoia Sugar
0
0
D
23.01.22
H2H
Talanta
Nzoia Sugar
2
2
D
Last matches: Nzoia Sugar
07.06.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Mombasa Elite
0
1
L
17.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
MCF
0
1
L
03.05.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kabati Youth FC
1
1
D
26.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Migori Youth
0
4
L
12.04.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Soy United
1
0
W
29.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
3K
1
3
L
08.03.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kisumu All Stars
1
0
W
20.02.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Vihiga United FC
4
0
W
31.01.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Equity Bank
0
1
L
25.01.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
MOFA
1
1
D
12.01.26
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Darajani Gogo
4
1
W
17.12.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Luanda Villa
0
0
D
07.12.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Naivas
1
0
W
29.11.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Nairobi City Stars
1
1
D
15.11.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Gucha Stars
1
2
L
29.10.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Kibera Black Stars
0
0
D
12.10.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Fortune Sacco
0
0
D
04.10.25
Sup
Nzoia Sugar
Mwatate United
2
2
D
H2H away: Nzoia Sugar
27.05.26
H2H
Talanta
Nzoia Sugar
2
0
L
01.11.23
H2H
Talanta
Nzoia Sugar
0
0
D
25.02.23
H2H
Talanta
Nzoia Sugar
0
0
D
23.01.22
H2H
Talanta
Nzoia Sugar
2
2
D

Standings

Super League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 25 6 7 57:29 28 81
D W W W W
2 38 23 8 7 62:26 36 77
D W W D D
3 38 24 4 10 51:32 19 76
D W L D W
4 38 21 11 6 56:28 28 74
W L W W D
5 38 16 16 6 51:30 21 64
D D D D L
6 38 18 9 11 61:41 20 63
W W L L L
7 38 17 10 11 47:30 17 61
D L W W W
8 38 16 9 13 53:41 12 57
L W L W W
9 38 15 8 15 32:33 -1 53
L L D D L
10 38 14 10 14 31:27 4 52
W D L D W
11 38 12 14 12 37:36 1 50
W L W L L
12 38 12 8 18 35:41 -6 44
W L W L W
13 38 12 7 19 30:51 -21 43
L D W L L
14 38 10 9 19 32:52 -20 39
D W W W L
15 38 10 9 19 23:47 -24 39
W L L D W
16 38 9 12 17 32:44 -12 39
L L L D D
17 38 10 8 20 27:48 -21 38
W W L D W
18 38 9 10 19 24:42 -18 34
L W W L D
19 38 9 9 20 29:55 -26 30
L D L W L
20 38 6 7 25 27:64 -37 25
L L L L L
Promotion - Premier League
Relegation