ENGLAND LEAGUE TWO
--.--.---- --:--
County Ground
Referee: D. Brown
Swindon Town
Match Timeline
Accrington ST
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
1'
J. Woods
Accrington ST
18'
O. Palmer · Assist: J. Batty
Swindon Town
20'
A. Drinan
Swindon Town
🔄
26'
F. Sass ↔ C. Brown
Accrington ST
🔄
58'
J. Hoilett ↔ D. Oldaker
Swindon Town
🔄
58'
T. Wilson-Brown ↔ J. Scanlon
Swindon Town
🟨
63'
Liam Coyle
Accrington ST
🔄
72'
I. Sinclair ↔ P. Madden
Accrington ST
🔄
78'
O. Clarke ↔ B. Bodin
Swindon Town
🔄
78'
O. Palmer ↔ F. Holman
Swindon Town
🔄
78'
J. Snowdon ↔ J. McGregor
Swindon Town
90'
L. Butterfield
Accrington ST

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 72%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 65.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 69.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
72%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
65.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
69.6%
-
Probability Distribution
Swindon Town Win 72%
Draw 16.2%
Accrington ST Win 11.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Swindon Town1.44
Accrington ST1.08
Recent Form (Last 5)
Swindon Town Swindon Town
WWDLW
75 GF / 55 GA
Accrington ST Accrington ST
WLDWL
45 GF / 52 GA
Key Stats
1.63
Average Goals Scored
1
1.2
Average Goals Conceded
1.16
27
BTTS Yes
19
29
Over 2.5
15
4.35
Shots on Goal
3.84

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Swindon Town Swindon Town 46 matches
Accrington ST Accrington ST 45 matches
Swindon Town Statistic Accrington ST
24 Wins 15
8 Draws 10
14 Losses 20
75 Goals For 45
55 Goals Against 52
1.63 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.2 Avg Goals Conceded 1.16
27 BTTS Yes 19
39 Over 1.5 30
29 Over 2.5 15
13 Over 3.5 7
14 Clean Sheets 12
6 Failed To Score 17
4.35 Shots On Goal 3.84
11.24 Total Shots 11.87
5 Corners 4.2
50.3% Ball Possession 46.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Swindon Town's more proactive style and Accrington ST's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Accrington ST. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Accrington ST arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Swindon Town arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 5 with 74 points compared to Accrington ST in 16 on 51, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Swindon Town Analysis

Swindon Town arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 74 points after 43 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 22 wins, 8 draws, and 13 losses, while the 67:51 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Drinan (21 goals), O. Palmer (7 goals), O. Clarke (6 goals), with creative support from F. Munroe (6 assists), J. Snowdon (5 assists), D. Oldaker (4 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 11 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Accrington ST Analysis

With 51 points from 43 games and a place of 16, Accrington ST still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 14 wins, 9 draws, and 20 defeats with a 41:48 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on P. Madden (6 goals), Isaac Sinclair (5 goals), S. Whalley (5 goals), with creative support from S. Whalley (9 assists), Isaac Sinclair (4 assists), I. Heath (4 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 13 head-to-head meetings, Swindon Town won 4 times, Accrington ST won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:22 from Swindon Town's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 3.23 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (88.1%)
Predicted formations: Swindon Town 4-2-3-1 / Accrington ST 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Swindon Town wins 4, draws 4, Accrington ST wins 5
Stats
Swindon Town Swindon Town
Accrington ST Accrington ST
Shots on Goal
6
Shots on Goal
7
Shots off Goal
1
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
1
Blocked Shots
1
5 Corner Kicks 6
7 Fouls 6
0 Offsides 4
33% Ball Possession 67%
8 Total Shots 11
6 Shots on Goal 7
1 Shots off Goal 3
1 Blocked Shots 1
7 Shots insidebox 8
1 Shots outsidebox 3
5 Goalkeeper Saves 4
247 Total passes 492
142 Passes accurate 391
1.74 expected_goals 2.45
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Swindon Town
Formation
Accrington ST
C. Ripley
C. Ripley
F. Mabete
F. Mabete
J. Knight-Lebel
J. Knight-Lebel
T. Wilson-Brown
T. Wilson-Brown
J. Snowdon
J. Snowdon
O. Clarke
O. Clarke
A. Borland
A. Borland
J. Batty
🎯
J. Batty
A. Drinan
A. Drinan
J. Hoilett
J. Hoilett
O. Palmer
O. Palmer
O. Wright
O. Wright
D. Matthews
D. Matthews
F. Rawson
F. Rawson
F. Sass
F. Sass
C. O'Brien
C. O'Brien
L. Coyle
L. Coyle
L. Butterfield
L. Butterfield
D. Love
D. Love
S. Whalley
S. Whalley
I. Sinclair
I. Sinclair
J. Woods
J. Woods
Swindon Town 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
1
C. Ripley
G
3
F. Mabete
D
22
J. Knight-Lebel
D
16
T. Wilson-Brown
↓ 58'
D
19
J. Snowdon
↓ 78'
M
8
O. Clarke
↓ 78'
M
25
A. Borland
M
26
J. Batty
🎯 18'
M
23
A. Drinan
⚽ 20'
F
30
J. Hoilett
↓ 58'
F
28
O. Palmer
⚽ 18' ↓ 78'
F
Substitutes
12
L. Ward
G
44
D. Oldaker
↑ 58'
M
31
B. Bodin
↑ 78'
F
29
M. Olakigbe
F
21
J. Scanlon
↑ 58'
M
24
F. Holman
↑ 78'
F
33
J. McGregor
↑ 78'
D
Accrington ST 3-4-1-2
Starting XI
13
O. Wright
17
D. Matthews
5
F. Rawson
D
3
F. Sass
↓ 26'
38
C. O'Brien
M
6
L. Coyle
🟨 63'
M
24
L. Butterfield
⚽ 90'
M
2
D. Love
M
7
S. Whalley
F
11
I. Sinclair
↓ 72'
F
39
J. Woods
⚽ 1'
F
Substitutes
1
M. Kelly
G
26
C. Hall
M
8
P. Madden
↑ 72'
F
28
S. Conneely
M
20
C. Brown
↑ 26'
F
22
D. Martin
M
31
F. Tunstall
Last matches: Swindon Town
04.07.26
Fri
Swindon Town
Swindon Supermarine
4
0
W
02.05.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Chesterfield
1
2
L
25.04.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Grimsby
0
4
L
10.04.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Colchester
0
3
L
06.04.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Walsall
2
1
W
02.04.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Cambridge United
1
1
D
28.03.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Fleetwood Town
1
1
D
21.03.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Tranmere
1
0
W
17.03.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Gillingham
2
0
W
14.03.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Milton Keynes Dons
1
2
L
07.03.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Crawley Town
2
2
D
28.02.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Bristol Rovers
1
1
D
21.02.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Crewe
1
2
L
17.02.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Barnet
2
1
W
14.02.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Shrewsbury
1
3
L
11.02.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Newport County
2
0
W
07.02.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Oldham
3
0
W
03.02.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Harrogate Town
1
0
W
31.01.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Barrow
3
1
W
27.01.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Notts County
1
2
L
Last matches: Accrington ST
02.05.26
Lea
Accrington ST
Oldham
0
3
L
25.04.26
Lea
Accrington ST
Crawley Town
3
3
D
14.04.26
Lea
Accrington ST
Colchester
1
2
L
11.04.26
Lea
Accrington ST
Fleetwood Town
1
2
L
06.04.26
Lea
Accrington ST
Gillingham
0
2
L
03.04.26
Lea
Accrington ST
Crewe
2
0
W
28.03.26
Lea
Accrington ST
Bristol Rovers
0
2
L
21.03.26
Lea
Accrington ST
Chesterfield
0
1
L
17.03.26
Lea
Accrington ST
Notts County
0
4
L
14.03.26
Lea
Accrington ST
Barrow
0
0
D
07.03.26
Lea
Accrington ST
Cambridge United
1
1
D
28.02.26
Lea
Accrington ST
Bromley
1
2
L
24.02.26
Lea
Accrington ST
Barnet
0
1
L
21.02.26
Lea
Accrington ST
Shrewsbury
0
2
L
17.02.26
Lea
Accrington ST
Tranmere
1
0
W
11.02.26
Lea
Accrington ST
Grimsby
0
1
L
05.02.26
Lea
Accrington ST
Salford City
1
0
W
31.01.26
Lea
Accrington ST
Cheltenham
3
1
W
27.01.26
Lea
Accrington ST
Newport County
4
1
W
24.01.26
Lea
Accrington ST
Walsall
0
0
D
H2H: Swindon Town vs Accrington ST
18.04.26
H2H
Swindon Town
Accrington ST
2
2
D
18.10.25
H2H
Accrington ST
Swindon Town
4
0
L
22.03.25
H2H
Swindon Town
Accrington ST
0
0
D
30.11.24
H2H
Accrington ST
Swindon Town
2
2
D
16.11.24
H2H
Accrington ST
Swindon Town
2
2
D
12.03.24
H2H
Swindon Town
Accrington ST
1
2
L
28.11.23
H2H
Accrington ST
Swindon Town
3
4
W
06.03.21
H2H
Accrington ST
Swindon Town
2
1
L
17.11.20
H2H
Swindon Town
Accrington ST
0
3
L
05.05.18
H2H
Swindon Town
Accrington ST
3
0
W
06.02.18
H2H
Accrington ST
Swindon Town
2
1
L
25.02.12
H2H
Swindon Town
Accrington ST
2
0
W
15.10.11
H2H
Accrington ST
Swindon Town
0
2
W
Last matches: Swindon Town
04.07.26
Fri
Swindon Town
Swindon Supermarine
4
0
W
02.05.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Chesterfield
1
2
L
06.04.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Walsall
2
1
W
28.03.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Fleetwood Town
1
1
D
14.03.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Milton Keynes Dons
1
2
L
28.02.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Bristol Rovers
1
1
D
21.02.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Crewe
1
2
L
11.02.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Newport County
2
0
W
07.02.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Oldham
3
0
W
31.01.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Barrow
3
1
W
17.01.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Salford City
2
3
L
01.01.26
Lea
Swindon Town
Gillingham
2
0
W
20.12.25
Lea
Swindon Town
Crawley Town
1
0
W
09.12.25
Lea
Swindon Town
Cheltenham
0
1
L
06.12.25
FA
Swindon Town
Bolton
4
0
W
22.11.25
Lea
Swindon Town
Grimsby
2
2
D
08.11.25
Lea
Swindon Town
Tranmere
2
1
W
25.10.25
Lea
Swindon Town
Colchester
0
0
D
21.10.25
Lea
Swindon Town
Notts County
2
2
D
27.09.25
Lea
Swindon Town
Bromley
2
0
W
H2H at home: Swindon Town
18.04.26
H2H
Swindon Town
Accrington ST
2
2
D
22.03.25
H2H
Swindon Town
Accrington ST
0
0
D
12.03.24
H2H
Swindon Town
Accrington ST
1
2
L
17.11.20
H2H
Swindon Town
Accrington ST
0
3
L
05.05.18
H2H
Swindon Town
Accrington ST
3
0
W
25.02.12
H2H
Swindon Town
Accrington ST
2
0
W
Last matches: Accrington ST
02.05.26
Lea
Accrington ST
Oldham
0
3
L
14.04.26
Lea
Accrington ST
Colchester
1
2
L
06.04.26
Lea
Accrington ST
Gillingham
0
2
L
28.03.26
Lea
Accrington ST
Bristol Rovers
0
2
L
14.03.26
Lea
Accrington ST
Barrow
0
0
D
28.02.26
Lea
Accrington ST
Bromley
1
2
L
17.02.26
Lea
Accrington ST
Tranmere
1
0
W
11.02.26
Lea
Accrington ST
Grimsby
0
1
L
27.01.26
Lea
Accrington ST
Newport County
4
1
W
24.01.26
Lea
Accrington ST
Walsall
0
0
D
01.01.26
Lea
Accrington ST
Notts County
1
0
W
19.12.25
Lea
Accrington ST
Cambridge United
0
2
L
09.12.25
Lea
Accrington ST
Harrogate Town
2
0
W
22.11.25
Lea
Accrington ST
Crawley Town
1
1
D
08.11.25
Lea
Accrington ST
Chesterfield
3
3
D
02.11.25
FA
Accrington ST
Gainsborough Trinity
2
1
W
25.10.25
Lea
Accrington ST
Fleetwood Town
1
2
L
04.10.25
Lea
Accrington ST
Barnet
0
2
L
20.09.25
Lea
Accrington ST
Milton Keynes Dons
2
1
W
06.09.25
Lea
Accrington ST
Cheltenham
0
1
L
H2H away: Accrington ST
18.04.26
H2H
Swindon Town
Accrington ST
2
2
D
22.03.25
H2H
Swindon Town
Accrington ST
0
0
D
12.03.24
H2H
Swindon Town
Accrington ST
1
2
W
17.11.20
H2H
Swindon Town
Accrington ST
0
3
W
05.05.18
H2H
Swindon Town
Accrington ST
3
0
L
25.02.12
H2H
Swindon Town
Accrington ST
2
0
L

Standings

League Two
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 24 15 7 71:46 25 87
W L D L W
2 46 24 14 8 86:45 41 86
D W W W D
3 46 22 16 8 66:33 33 82
D W L D W
4 46 25 6 15 61:51 10 81
L D W D W
5 46 24 8 14 74:52 22 80
W D W D W
6 46 21 16 9 71:56 15 79
D L W W D
7 46 22 12 12 74:50 24 78
D L D W W
8 46 21 13 12 70:53 17 76
W W W W W
9 46 22 9 15 70:59 11 75
L L D L W
10 46 18 14 14 60:44 16 68
W L L L L
11 46 19 10 17 64:58 6 67
D L L L W
12 46 18 12 16 62:49 13 66
W L L W W
13 46 18 11 17 56:56 0 65
L L W L L
14 46 19 5 22 56:65 -9 62
D W W W W
15 46 15 16 15 57:58 -1 61
D D D W L
16 46 14 11 21 47:58 -11 53
L D D L L
17 46 13 14 19 53:72 -19 53
W L L L D
18 46 14 10 22 53:79 -26 52
L L L W W
19 46 13 10 23 42:69 -27 49
L D D W L
20 46 12 7 27 48:77 -29 43
W W L W L
21 46 10 11 25 54:79 -25 41
D L W L D
22 46 8 16 22 44:68 -24 40
D D D L L
23 46 10 9 27 39:68 -29 39
L W W L L
24 46 9 9 28 45:78 -33 36
L L L W L
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation