LATVIA › VIRSLIGA
11.05.2026 17:00
Slokas Stadions
Referee: A. Anufrijevs
Super Nova
Match Timeline
Tukums
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
18'
A. Glaudans · Assist: V. Lizunovs
Super Nova
🟨
29'
Bamba
Super Nova
🟨
35'
S. Shibata
Tukums
🟨
54'
R. Reingolcs
Tukums
🔄
64'
A. Grikovs ↔ N. Barkovskis
Super Nova
🔄
65'
M. Derkach ↔ R. Melkis
Tukums
🔄
65'
R. Deruzinskis ↔ Leoni
Tukums
🔄
72'
A. Glaudans ↔ K. Skadmanis
Super Nova
🔄
72'
Facu ↔ I. Sylla
Super Nova
🟨
73'
R. Sitjakovs
Super Nova
🔄
73'
S. Shibata ↔ R. Baumanis
Tukums
🟨
76'
N. Barkovskis
Super Nova
🔄
79'
N. Pathe ↔ G. Bombans
Super Nova
🟨
80'
I. Sylla
Super Nova
🔄
82'
R. Reingolcs ↔ D. Valmiers
Tukums
⚽
90'
D. Valmiers · Assist: B. Samoilovs
Tukums

Super Nova vs Tukums Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 73.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 25.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 28.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
73.4%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
25.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
28.5%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Super Nova Win 33.4%
Draw 26.6%
Tukums Win 39.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Super Nova1.33
Tukums1.84
Recent Form (Last 5)
Super Nova Super Nova
WWDLW
17 GF / 24 GA
Tukums Tukums
WLDWL
28 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.13
Average Goals Scored
2
1.6
Average Goals Conceded
1.64
10
BTTS Yes
13
8
Over 2.5
11
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Super Nova Super Nova 15 matches
Tukums Tukums 14 matches
Super Nova Statistic Tukums
5 Wins 2
2 Draws 7
8 Losses 5
17 Goals For 28
24 Goals Against 23
1.13 Avg Goals Scored 2
1.6 Avg Goals Conceded 1.64
10 BTTS Yes 13
11 Over 1.5 14
8 Over 2.5 11
3 Over 3.5 6
2 Clean Sheets 1
3 Failed To Score 0
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and Tukums's more proactive style and Super Nova's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Tukums having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Tukums. Super Nova have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Super Nova Analysis

Super Nova approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 5 with 13 points from 11 matches. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 1 draws, and 6 defeats, and the 11:16 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on M. Oss (3 goals), V. Lizunovs (2 goals), A. Glaudans (1 goals), with creative support from Facu (5 assists), A. Glaudans (1 assists), N. Pathe (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Tukums Analysis

Tukums are currently 7 in the standings with 11 points from 11 matches. Their overall return of 2 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 23:17 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by E. Oloko (11 goals), R. Deruzinskis (4 goals), Leoni (3 goals), with creative support from B. Samoilovs (5 assists), Anmanis Kaspars (2 assists), R. Baumanis (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Super Nova won 6 times, Tukums won 6 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:23 from Super Nova's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (73.4%)
Predicted formations: Super Nova 4-2-3-1 / Tukums 3-5-2
H2H summary: Super Nova wins 6, draws 3, Tukums wins 6

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 23 5 2 71:22 49 74
D W D W D
2 31 22 7 2 86:30 56 73
W W D D L
3 31 18 7 6 49:30 19 61
D W D W D
4 31 12 7 12 41:43 -2 43
D D D W L
5 31 10 9 12 35:35 0 39
D L D L D
6 30 10 5 15 29:40 -11 35
L L W W D
7 31 8 8 15 32:49 -17 32
L D L W W
8 31 5 11 15 21:52 -31 26
D D L W L
9 31 5 9 17 44:61 -17 24
D L W L L
10 31 4 6 21 30:76 -46 18
W L D L L