LATVIA VIRSLIGA
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Jana Skredela stadions

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 55.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
55.4%
-
BTTS Yes
58.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
-
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Super Nova Win 55.4%
Draw 26%
FS Jelgava Win 18.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Super Nova1.4
FS Jelgava1.07
Recent Form (Last 5)
Super Nova Super Nova
WWDLW
25 GF / 33 GA
FS Jelgava FS Jelgava
WLDWL
18 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
1.14
Average Goals Scored
0.78
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.78
14
BTTS Yes
10
12
Over 2.5
8
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Super Nova Super Nova 22 matches
FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 23 matches
Super Nova Statistic FS Jelgava
7 Wins 4
4 Draws 7
11 Losses 12
25 Goals For 18
33 Goals Against 41
1.14 Avg Goals Scored 0.78
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.78
14 BTTS Yes 10
17 Over 1.5 16
12 Over 2.5 8
4 Over 3.5 6
4 Clean Sheets 3
5 Failed To Score 11
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward FS Jelgava. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward FS Jelgava having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Super Nova have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Super Nova Analysis

Super Nova sit 5 with 21 points after 18 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 6 wins, 3 draws, and 9 defeats with a 19:25 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on V. Lizunovs (5 goals), A. Glaudans (4 goals), M. Oss (3 goals), with creative support from Facu (5 assists), N. Pathe (2 assists), V. Lizunovs (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

FS Jelgava Analysis

So far, FS Jelgava have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 16 points from 18 matches. The record of 3 wins, 7 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 13:33 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through F. Hasek (5 goals), A. Kangars (3 goals), D. Holoubek (1 goals), with creative support from G. Zaleiko (3 assists), D. Holoubek (2 assists), J. Novikovs (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Super Nova won 0 times, FS Jelgava won 5 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:15 from Super Nova's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.09 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (81.4%)
H2H summary: Super Nova wins 0, draws 6, FS Jelgava wins 5
Last matches: Super Nova
16.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
0
0
D
12.06.26
Vir
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
29.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
1
2
L
24.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Riga
0
3
L
20.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
2
0
W
16.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Ogre United
3
1
W
11.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Tukums
1
1
D
06.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
0
1
L
01.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Auda
1
2
L
27.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
W
23.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
18.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
0
2
L
14.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Riga
1
4
L
09.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Grobiņa
1
0
W
03.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Ogre United
2
1
W
22.03.26
Vir
Super Nova
Tukums
2
1
W
15.03.26
Vir
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
08.03.26
Vir
Super Nova
Auda
1
2
L
28.02.26
Fri
Super Nova
Paide
0
1
L
21.02.26
Fri
Super Nova
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
Last matches: FS Jelgava
17.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
0
2
L
13.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Auda
1
1
D
31.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
26.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
21.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Rīgas FS
0
4
L
16.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Riga
2
2
D
11.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
0
0
D
06.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
1
0
W
01.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Tukums
0
5
L
27.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
1
0
W
21.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Auda
2
3
L
16.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
0
1
L
12.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
08.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
04.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Riga
0
8
L
21.03.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
0
1
L
15.03.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
1
1
D
08.03.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Tukums
2
1
W
27.02.26
Fri
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
14.02.26
Fri
FS Jelgava
Šiauliai
0
1
L
H2H: Super Nova vs FS Jelgava
06.05.26
H2H
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
1
0
L
15.03.26
H2H
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
04.10.25
H2H
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
20.07.25
H2H
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
1
0
L
21.05.25
H2H
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
0
0
D
05.04.25
H2H
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
2
1
L
01.10.23
H2H
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
09.07.23
H2H
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
2
2
D
18.05.23
H2H
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
2
2
D
05.04.23
H2H
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
2
0
L
21.01.23
H2H
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
2
0
L
Last matches: Super Nova
29.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
1
2
L
16.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Ogre United
3
1
W
11.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Tukums
1
1
D
01.05.26
Vir
Super Nova
Auda
1
2
L
23.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
14.04.26
Vir
Super Nova
Riga
1
4
L
15.03.26
Vir
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
H2H at home: Super Nova
15.03.26
H2H
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
04.10.25
H2H
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
21.05.25
H2H
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
0
0
D
01.10.23
H2H
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
18.05.23
H2H
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
2
2
D
Last matches: FS Jelgava
13.06.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Auda
1
1
D
21.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Rīgas FS
0
4
L
16.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Riga
2
2
D
11.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Grobiņa
0
0
D
01.05.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Tukums
0
5
L
27.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
1
0
W
16.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils
0
1
L
12.04.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
15.03.26
Vir
FS Jelgava
Super Nova
1
1
D
27.02.26
Fri
FS Jelgava
FK Liepaja
1
2
L
14.02.26
Fri
FS Jelgava
Šiauliai
0
1
L
01.02.26
Fri
FS Jelgava
Nõmme United
4
1
W
24.01.26
Fri
FS Jelgava
Panevėžys
0
2
L
H2H away: FS Jelgava
15.03.26
H2H
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
04.10.25
H2H
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
21.05.25
H2H
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
0
0
D
01.10.23
H2H
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
1
1
D
18.05.23
H2H
Super Nova
FS Jelgava
2
2
D

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 15 1 2 42:14 28 46
L W W W W
2 18 14 3 1 56:19 37 45
W W W W W
3 18 11 2 5 34:23 11 35
L D W W W
4 18 7 4 7 23:25 -2 25
L W W D L
5 18 6 3 9 19:25 -6 21
D L L L W
6 18 5 5 8 20:25 -5 20
D D D L W
7 18 3 8 7 32:32 0 17
W D L L L
8 18 3 7 8 12:29 -17 16
W L L D L
9 18 3 7 8 13:33 -20 16
L D D D L
10 18 1 4 13 16:42 -26 7
W L L D L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - Nakotnes liga