AUSTRIA BUNDESLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Merkur-Arena
Referee: A. Talic
Sturm Graz
Match Timeline
Lask Linz
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
-5'
Jeyland Mitchell
Sturm Graz
🟨
6'
Alemão
Lask Linz
🟨
18'
Alemão
Lask Linz
🟥
18'
Alemão
Lask Linz
🔄
46'
A. Malic ↔ J. Gazibegovic
Sturm Graz
🔄
46'
S. Kalajdzic ↔ X. Mbuyamba
Lask Linz
52'
M. Usor · Assist: S. Horvath
Lask Linz
🟨
56'
Seedy Jatta
Sturm Graz
🟨
57'
Samuel Adeniran
Lask Linz
🔄
66'
E. Aiwu ↔ G. Mamageishvili
Sturm Graz
🟨
67'
Albert Vallci
Sturm Graz
🟨
67'
Modou Kéba Cissé
Lask Linz
🟨
67'
Samuel Adeniran
Lask Linz
🟥
67'
Samuel Adeniran
Lask Linz
🔄
72'
M. Usor ↔ G. Bello
Lask Linz
VAR
75'
Gizo Mamageishvili
Sturm Graz
78'
O. Kiteishvili
Sturm Graz
🔄
85'
S. Jatta ↔ R. Wilson
Sturm Graz
🔄
88'
I. Coulibaly ↔ L. Kacavenda
Lask Linz
🔄
90+4'
S. Horvath ↔ K. Cheikne
Lask Linz

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 81.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.9%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
81.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.2%
-
Probability Distribution
Sturm Graz Win 56.9%
Draw 4.8%
Lask Linz Win 38.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sturm Graz1.35
Lask Linz1.53
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sturm Graz Sturm Graz
WWDLW
57 GF / 51 GA
Lask Linz Lask Linz
WLDWL
55 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
1.39
Average Goals Scored
1.72
1.24
Average Goals Conceded
1.28
20
BTTS Yes
17
20
Over 2.5
18
4.32
Shots on Goal
4.85

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 41 matches
Lask Linz Lask Linz 32 matches
Sturm Graz Statistic Lask Linz
19 Wins 18
7 Draws 6
15 Losses 8
57 Goals For 55
51 Goals Against 41
1.39 Avg Goals Scored 1.72
1.24 Avg Goals Conceded 1.28
20 BTTS Yes 17
31 Over 1.5 25
20 Over 2.5 18
11 Over 3.5 13
15 Clean Sheets 11
8 Failed To Score 5
4.32 Shots On Goal 4.85
13.73 Total Shots 16.07
4.54 Corners 5.63
50.8% Ball Possession 51%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Lask Linz. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sturm Graz expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Lask Linz in 3-4-1-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lask Linz having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Sturm Graz Analysis

Placed 1 with 38 points from 22 outings, Sturm Graz continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 12 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses with goals at 33:26 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by O. Kiteishvili (13 goals), S. Jatta (4 goals), B. Beganovic (3 goals), with creative support from T. Horvat (5 assists), O. Kiteishvili (3 assists), W. Boving (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Lask Linz Analysis

Placed 3 with 37 points from 22 outings, Lask Linz continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 11 wins, 4 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 32:30 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Usor (10 goals), Samuel Adeniran (7 goals), Kasper Jørgensen (6 goals), with creative support from Samuel Adeniran (5 assists), M. Usor (4 assists), George Bello (4 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Sturm Graz won 7 times, Lask Linz won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 22:17 from Sturm Graz's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.2%)
Predicted formations: Sturm Graz 3-4-2-1 / Lask Linz 3-4-1-2
H2H summary: Sturm Graz wins 7, draws 4, Lask Linz wins 4
Stats
Sturm Graz Sturm Graz
Lask Linz Lask Linz
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
10
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
7
Blocked Shots
1
7 Corner Kicks 5
6 Fouls 12
1 Offsides 2
72% Ball Possession 28%
21 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Goal 5
10 Shots off Goal 3
7 Blocked Shots 1
13 Shots insidebox 7
8 Shots outsidebox 2
4 Goalkeeper Saves 3
466 Total passes 183
399 Passes accurate 119
1.80 expected_goals 0.75
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 5 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 2 🟥

Lineups

Sturm Graz
Formation
Lask Linz
D. Khudyakov
D. Khudyakov
A. Vallci
A. Vallci
E. Aiwu
E. Aiwu
P. Koller
P. Koller
A. Malic
A. Malic
J. Gorenc Stankovic
J. Gorenc Stankovic
R. Fosso
R. Fosso
E. Karic
E. Karic
O. Kiteishvili
O. Kiteishvili
M. Malone
M. Malone
S. Jatta
S. Jatta
L. Jungwirth
L. Jungwirth
M. Cisse
M. Cisse
Alemao
Alemao
A. Andrade
A. Andrade
K. P. Molgaard Jorgensen
K. P. Molgaard Jorgensen
I. Coulibaly
I. Coulibaly
S. Horvath
🎯
S. Horvath
M. Bogarde
M. Bogarde
S. Kalajdzic
S. Kalajdzic
M. Usor
M. Usor
S. Adeniran
S. Adeniran
Sturm Graz 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
53
D. Khudyakov
G
5
A. Vallci
🟨 67'
D
47
E. Aiwu
↓ 66'
D
30
P. Koller
D
23
A. Malic
↓ 46'
M
4
J. Gorenc Stankovic
M
80
R. Fosso
M
17
E. Karic
M
10
O. Kiteishvili
⚽ 78'
F
77
M. Malone
F
20
S. Jatta
↓ 85' 🟨 56'
F
Substitutes
40
M. Bignetti
G
15
G. Mamageishvili
↑ 66'
M
39
L. Weinhandl
M
25
S. Hierlander
M
22
J. Gazibegovic
↑ 46'
D
35
N. Geyrhofer
D
9
R. Wilson
↑ 85'
2
J. Mitchell
🟨 -5'
D
11
A. Kayombo
F
Lask Linz 3-4-1-2
Starting XI
1
L. Jungwirth
G
48
M. Cisse
🟨 67'
D
43
Alemao
🟨 6' 🟨 18' 🟥 18'
D
16
A. Andrade
D
20
K. P. Molgaard Jorgensen
M
4
I. Coulibaly
↓ 88'
M
30
S. Horvath
🎯 52' ↓ 90+4'
M
6
M. Bogarde
M
10
S. Kalajdzic
↓ 46'
F
8
M. Usor
⚽ 52' ↓ 72'
F
7
S. Adeniran
🟨 57' 🟨 67' 🟥 67'
F
Substitutes
33
T. Schutzenauer
G
29
F. Flecker
F
11
M. Entrup
F
2
G. Bello
↑ 72'
D
27
C. Lang
F
3
X. Mbuyamba
↑ 46'
D
44
L. Kacavenda
↑ 88'
M
13
A. Adeshina
52
K. Cheikne
↑ 90+4'
M
Last matches: Sturm Graz
17.05.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Rapid Vienna
2
0
W
10.05.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
TSV Hartberg
4
2
W
03.05.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg
1
1
D
26.04.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Austria Vienna
1
1
D
19.04.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
1
1
D
12.04.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
TSV Hartberg
0
0
D
05.04.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Rapid Vienna
2
0
W
27.03.26
Fri
Sturm Graz
First Vienna
1
1
D
20.03.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg
1
1
D
15.03.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Austria Vienna
5
2
W
08.03.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
SCR Altach
2
0
W
01.03.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Wolfsberger AC
2
2
D
22.02.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
FC BW Linz
1
0
W
14.02.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
WSG Wattens
0
1
L
08.02.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Ried
1
0
W
01.02.26
Cup
Sturm Graz
SCR Altach
1
3
L
29.01.26
UEF
Sturm Graz
Brann
1
0
W
22.01.26
UEF
Sturm Graz
Feyenoord
0
3
L
14.01.26
Fri
Sturm Graz
FC Copenhagen
4
4
D
08.01.26
Fri
Sturm Graz
Club Brugge KV
2
2
D
Last matches: Lask Linz
17.05.26
Bun
Lask Linz
Austria Vienna
3
0
W
10.05.26
Bun
Lask Linz
Red Bull Salzburg
2
1
W
04.05.26
Bun
Lask Linz
Rapid Vienna
3
1
W
01.05.26
Cup
Lask Linz
SCR Altach
4
2
W
26.04.26
Bun
Lask Linz
TSV Hartberg
5
1
W
19.04.26
Bun
Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
1
1
D
10.04.26
Bun
Lask Linz
Red Bull Salzburg
3
2
W
05.04.26
Bun
Lask Linz
Austria Vienna
4
1
W
22.03.26
Bun
Lask Linz
Rapid Vienna
2
4
L
18.03.26
Cup
Lask Linz
Ried
2
1
W
13.03.26
Bun
Lask Linz
TSV Hartberg
0
0
D
08.03.26
Bun
Lask Linz
Wolfsberger AC
3
1
W
01.03.26
Bun
Lask Linz
Austria Vienna
2
2
D
22.02.26
Bun
Lask Linz
Red Bull Salzburg
1
5
L
14.02.26
Bun
Lask Linz
Ried
1
1
D
07.02.26
Bun
Lask Linz
WSG Wattens
1
0
W
30.01.26
Cup
Lask Linz
FC BW Linz
3
2
W
23.01.26
Fri
Lask Linz
SKU Amstetten
1
2
L
23.01.26
Fri
Lask Linz
SKN ST. Polten
3
0
W
15.01.26
Fri
Lask Linz
Jagiellonia
4
1
W
H2H: Sturm Graz vs Lask Linz
22.04.26
H2H
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
1
1
D
19.04.26
H2H
Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
1
1
D
23.11.25
H2H
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
1
3
L
01.08.25
H2H
Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
0
2
W
16.03.25
H2H
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
4
2
W
27.10.24
H2H
Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
1
2
W
12.05.24
H2H
Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
2
2
D
07.04.24
H2H
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
1
0
W
05.11.23
H2H
Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
3
1
L
05.08.23
H2H
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
2
0
W
03.06.23
H2H
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
2
0
W
09.04.23
H2H
Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
2
1
L
06.04.23
H2H
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
1
0
W
13.11.22
H2H
Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
1
1
D
20.08.22
H2H
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
0
1
L
Last matches: Sturm Graz
17.05.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Rapid Vienna
2
0
W
26.04.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Austria Vienna
1
1
D
12.04.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
TSV Hartberg
0
0
D
27.03.26
Fri
Sturm Graz
First Vienna
1
1
D
20.03.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg
1
1
D
08.03.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
SCR Altach
2
0
W
22.02.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
FC BW Linz
1
0
W
08.02.26
Bun
Sturm Graz
Ried
1
0
W
29.01.26
UEF
Sturm Graz
Brann
1
0
W
14.01.26
Fri
Sturm Graz
FC Copenhagen
4
4
D
11.12.25
UEF
Sturm Graz
FK Crvena Zvezda
0
1
L
07.12.25
Bun
Sturm Graz
Grazer AK
2
1
W
03.12.25
Bun
Sturm Graz
WSG Wattens
1
3
L
23.11.25
Bun
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
1
3
L
09.11.25
Bun
Sturm Graz
Red Bull Salzburg
1
1
D
06.11.25
UEF
Sturm Graz
Nottingham Forest
0
0
D
26.10.25
Bun
Sturm Graz
Wolfsberger AC
1
3
L
02.10.25
UEF
Sturm Graz
Rangers
2
1
W
28.09.25
Bun
Sturm Graz
TSV Hartberg
1
0
W
14.09.25
Bun
Sturm Graz
Austria Vienna
0
1
L
H2H at home: Sturm Graz
22.04.26
H2H
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
1
1
D
23.11.25
H2H
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
1
3
L
16.03.25
H2H
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
4
2
W
07.04.24
H2H
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
1
0
W
05.08.23
H2H
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
2
0
W
03.06.23
H2H
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
2
0
W
06.04.23
H2H
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
1
0
W
20.08.22
H2H
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
0
1
L
Last matches: Lask Linz
17.05.26
Bun
Lask Linz
Austria Vienna
3
0
W
26.04.26
Bun
Lask Linz
TSV Hartberg
5
1
W
10.04.26
Bun
Lask Linz
Red Bull Salzburg
3
2
W
22.03.26
Bun
Lask Linz
Rapid Vienna
2
4
L
18.03.26
Cup
Lask Linz
Ried
2
1
W
01.03.26
Bun
Lask Linz
Austria Vienna
2
2
D
14.02.26
Bun
Lask Linz
Ried
1
1
D
15.01.26
Fri
Lask Linz
CSKA 1948
2
1
W
13.12.25
Bun
Lask Linz
Grazer AK
2
1
W
06.12.25
Bun
Lask Linz
TSV Hartberg
2
2
D
23.11.25
Bun
Lask Linz
Sturm Graz
3
1
W
01.11.25
Bun
Lask Linz
FC BW Linz
1
0
W
28.10.25
Cup
Lask Linz
Stripfing
2
0
W
19.10.25
Bun
Lask Linz
Rapid Vienna
2
0
W
27.09.25
Bun
Lask Linz
Wolfsberger AC
0
1
L
13.09.25
Bun
Lask Linz
SCR Altach
0
1
L
27.08.25
Cup
Lask Linz
SV Horn
2
0
W
23.08.25
Bun
Lask Linz
Red Bull Salzburg
0
3
L
10.08.25
Bun
Lask Linz
WSG Wattens
1
3
L
26.07.25
Cup
Lask Linz
Wiener SC
4
0
W
H2H away: Lask Linz
22.04.26
H2H
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
1
1
D
23.11.25
H2H
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
1
3
W
16.03.25
H2H
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
4
2
L
07.04.24
H2H
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
1
0
L
05.08.23
H2H
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
2
0
L
03.06.23
H2H
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
2
0
L
06.04.23
H2H
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
1
0
L
20.08.22
H2H
Sturm Graz
Lask Linz
0
1
W

Standings

Bundesliga: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 12 2 8 33:26 7 38
?
2 22 10 7 5 42:26 16 37
?
3 22 11 4 7 32:30 2 37
?
4 22 11 3 8 34:30 4 36
?
5 22 9 6 7 26:25 1 33
?
6 22 8 9 5 29:24 5 33
?
7 22 8 7 7 31:30 1 31
?
8 22 7 8 7 22:23 -1 29
?
9 22 8 4 10 26:30 -4 28
?
10 22 7 5 10 31:32 -1 26
?
11 22 4 8 10 22:36 -14 20
?
12 22 4 3 15 20:36 -16 15
?
Promotion - Bundesliga (Championship Group)
Bundesliga (Relegation Group)