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18.10.2026 15:00
Stadion Graz-Liebenau
Referee: Julian Weinberger, Austria
Sturm Graz
Match Timeline
Grazer AK
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
10'
C. Cvetko · Assist: Y. Oberleitner
Grazer AK
🔄
28'
D. Khudyakov ↔ A. Helac
Sturm Graz
⚽
37'
L. Weinhandl · Assist: V. Matoshi
Sturm Graz
⚽
39'
J. Heil · Assist: L. Balbo
Sturm Graz
⚽
41'
O. Diakite
Sturm Graz
VAR
45+7'
Joshua Quarshie
Sturm Graz
🔄
46'
Anderson ↔ T. Trummer
Grazer AK
🔄
46'
C. Lichtenberger ↔ M. Grosse
Grazer AK
🟨
48'
Mark Große
Grazer AK
⚽
49'
O. Diakite · Assist: S. Seidl
Sturm Graz
⚽
51'
O. Diakite · Assist: S. Seidl
Sturm Graz
🟨
52'
Oumar Diakité
Sturm Graz
🟨
53'
Alexander Hofleitner
Grazer AK
🔄
59'
J. Quarshie ↔ A. Vallci
Sturm Graz
🔄
59'
L. Balbo ↔ J. Hodl
Sturm Graz
🔄
60'
O. Diakite ↔ S. Wlodarczyk
Sturm Graz
🔄
73'
L. Weinhandl ↔ J. Halwachs
Sturm Graz
⚽
75'
J. Gorenc Stankovic · Assist: S. Seidl
Sturm Graz
🔄
76'
C. Cvetko ↔ T. Koch
Grazer AK
🔄
76'
L. Klassen ↔ S. Mandey
Grazer AK
🟨
82'
Julian Halwachs
Sturm Graz

Sturm Graz vs Grazer AK Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 50.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
50.5%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
90.8%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Sturm Graz Win 50.5%
Draw 13.2%
Grazer AK Win 36.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sturm Graz1.82
Grazer AK1.45
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sturm Graz Sturm Graz
L W W L D
5 GF / 7 GA
Grazer AK Grazer AK
D W D W W
11 GF / 4 GA
Key Stats
2
Average Goals Scored
1.55
1.31
Average Goals Conceded
1.55
13
BTTS Yes
9
15
Over 2.5
12
4.29
Shots on Goal
4.13

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sturm Graz Sturm Graz 26 matches
Grazer AK Grazer AK 22 matches
Sturm Graz Statistic Grazer AK
13 Wins 9
7 Draws 6
6 Losses 7
52 Goals For 34
34 Goals Against 34
2 Avg Goals Scored 1.55
1.31 Avg Goals Conceded 1.55
13 BTTS Yes 9
22 Over 1.5 17
15 Over 2.5 12
11 Over 3.5 8
9 Clean Sheets 7
5 Failed To Score 8
4.29 Shots On Goal 4.13
14.5 Total Shots 13.75
6 Corners 3.88
44.2% Ball Possession 46.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Sturm Graz's more proactive style and Grazer AK's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sturm Graz expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Grazer AK in 3-4-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Grazer AK having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Sturm Graz arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 4 with 14 points compared to Grazer AK in 6 on 9, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Grazer AK.

Sturm Graz Analysis

Sturm Graz arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 14 points after 8 matches. The record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 10:9 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through O. Diakité (3 goals), S. Jatta (2 goals), Nelson Weiper (2 goals), with creative support from S. Seidl (4 assists), Luca Weinhandl (1 assists), A. Malic (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Grazer AK Analysis

Grazer AK are currently 6 in the standings with 9 points from 8 matches. The record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 6:16 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through A. Hofleitner (3 goals), Y. Oberleitner (1 goals), D. Pines (1 goals), with creative support from P. Michorl (2 assists), C. Lichtenberger (2 assists), L. Hermesh (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Sturm Graz won 6 times, Grazer AK won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:6 from Sturm Graz's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 3.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.8%)
Predicted formations: Sturm Graz 4-2-3-1 / Grazer AK 3-4-3
H2H summary: Sturm Graz wins 6, draws 0, Grazer AK wins 0

Standings

Bundesliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 12 11 0 1 39:9 30 33
W W W W W
2 11 8 3 0 29:6 23 27
W W W D W
3 11 7 1 3 26:13 13 22
W L W L D
4 11 5 4 2 19:13 6 19
D D W W L
5 11 5 2 4 20:19 1 17
W W L W D
6 11 4 4 3 19:18 1 16
D D W W W
7 11 3 3 5 14:17 -3 12
L D W L L
8 11 3 1 7 11:17 -6 10
D W L W L
9 11 2 4 5 8:27 -19 10
L D L D D
10 11 2 2 7 13:29 -16 8
L L L L W
11 11 2 1 8 10:22 -12 7
L L L L D
12 12 1 3 8 8:26 -18 6
L D L L L
Promotion - Bundesliga (Championship Group)
Bundesliga (Relegation Group)