ENGLAND CHAMPIONSHIP
21.04.2026 18:45
Bet365 Stadium
Referee: J. Smith
Stoke City
Match Timeline
Millwall
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
5'
Derek Mazou-Sacko
Millwall
🟨
15'
Casper De Norre
Millwall
20'
C. Neghli
Millwall
55'
F. Azeez · Assist: T. Ballo
Millwall
🔄
59'
L. Baker ↔ L. Cisse
Stoke City
🔄
59'
M. Manhoef ↔ S. Gallagher
Stoke City
60'
C. Taylor
Stoke City
69'
J. Coburn · Assist: C. Neghli
Millwall
🔄
74'
S. N'Zonzi ↔ B. Pearson
Stoke City
🔄
74'
R. Bozenik ↔ M. Smit
Stoke City
🔄
80'
Z. Sturge ↔ D. McNamara
Millwall
🔄
80'
J. Coburn ↔ M. Ivanovic
Millwall
🔄
80'
T. Ballo ↔ T. Watson
Millwall
🟨
81'
Danny McNamara
Millwall
🔄
85'
F. Azeez ↔ L. Cundle
Millwall
🔄
85'
C. De Norre ↔ M. Langstaff
Millwall

Stoke City vs Millwall Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 56.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 56.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 68.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
56.5%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
56.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
68.4%
-
Probability Distribution
Stoke City Win 33%
Draw 10.5%
Millwall Win 56.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Stoke City1.15
Millwall1.25
Recent Form (Last 5)
Stoke City Stoke City
WWDLW
51 GF / 50 GA
Millwall Millwall
WLDWL
59 GF / 52 GA
Key Stats
1.13
Average Goals Scored
1.34
1.11
Average Goals Conceded
1.18
19
BTTS Yes
22
19
Over 2.5
22
3.8
Shots on Goal
4.16

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Stoke City Stoke City 45 matches
Millwall Millwall 44 matches
Stoke City Statistic Millwall
16 Wins 22
10 Draws 10
19 Losses 12
51 Goals For 59
50 Goals Against 52
1.13 Avg Goals Scored 1.34
1.11 Avg Goals Conceded 1.18
19 BTTS Yes 22
30 Over 1.5 35
19 Over 2.5 22
7 Over 3.5 10
14 Clean Sheets 17
16 Failed To Score 8
3.8 Shots On Goal 4.16
11.07 Total Shots 12.52
5.53 Corners 5.43
51.3% Ball Possession 45.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Stoke City appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Millwall. Millwall carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 76 points while Stoke City sit 17 on 55, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Stoke City have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Millwall.

Stoke City Analysis

With 55 points from 43 games and a place of 17, Stoke City still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 15 wins, 10 draws, and 18 losses, together with goals at 49:46, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through S. Thomas (10 goals), M. Manhoef (7 goals), D. Mubama (5 goals), with creative support from S. Thomas (10 assists), M. Manhoef (3 assists), J. Bae (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 9 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with A. Ampah, V. Johansson, B. Wilmot unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Millwall Analysis

Millwall arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 76 points after 43 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 22 wins, 10 draws, and 11 losses, while the 56:47 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on M. Ivanovic (9 goals), F. Azeez (8 goals), Josh Coburn (8 goals), with creative support from F. Azeez (7 assists), T. Crama (6 assists), A. Doughty (5 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 10 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with L. Jensen, D. Kelly, M. Luongo unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Stoke City won 1 times, Millwall won 9 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:17 from Stoke City's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.53 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.5%)
Predicted formations: Stoke City 4-2-3-1 / Millwall 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Stoke City 9, Millwall 7
H2H summary: Stoke City wins 1, draws 5, Millwall wins 9

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 28 11 7 97:45 52 95
W W W D D
2 46 23 15 8 80:47 33 84
W D D W D
3 46 24 11 11 64:49 15 83
L D W D W
4 46 22 14 10 82:56 26 80
W D W D D
5 46 22 14 10 72:47 25 80
L L D D W
6 46 21 10 15 70:66 4 73
W W D W L
7 46 19 14 13 69:65 4 71
D L W W L
8 46 20 9 17 67:59 8 69
L W L W L
9 46 19 8 19 63:56 7 65
L D W W L
10 46 17 13 16 57:56 1 64
D W W D W
11 46 18 10 18 57:59 -2 64
W D W L W
12 46 17 11 18 59:59 0 62
W L D L D
13 46 18 6 22 66:66 0 60
W L L W W
14 46 15 15 16 55:62 -7 60
L W L L W
15 46 16 10 20 61:73 -12 58
L L L L D
16 46 14 15 17 53:65 -12 57
L L L L L
17 46 15 10 21 51:56 -5 55
L L L L D
18 46 14 13 19 49:64 -15 55
D W L W W
19 46 13 14 19 44:58 -14 53
L W L D L
20 46 13 13 20 42:56 -14 52
L W D L D
21 46 13 14 19 48:58 -10 51
L D W W D
22 46 11 14 21 45:59 -14 47
L W L L W
23 46 12 16 18 58:68 -10 46
W D D L L
24 46 2 12 32 29:89 -60 0
W L L D D
Promotion
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