ENGLAND CHAMPIONSHIP
--.--.---- --:--
Bet365 Stadium
Referee: J. Smith
Stoke City
Match Timeline
Millwall
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
5'
Derek Mazou-Sacko
Millwall
🟨
15'
Casper De Norre
Millwall
20'
C. Neghli
Millwall
55'
F. Azeez · Assist: T. Ballo
Millwall
🔄
59'
L. Baker ↔ L. Cisse
Stoke City
🔄
59'
M. Manhoef ↔ S. Gallagher
Stoke City
60'
C. Taylor
Stoke City
69'
J. Coburn · Assist: C. Neghli
Millwall
🔄
74'
S. N'Zonzi ↔ B. Pearson
Stoke City
🔄
74'
R. Bozenik ↔ M. Smit
Stoke City
🔄
80'
Z. Sturge ↔ D. McNamara
Millwall
🔄
80'
J. Coburn ↔ M. Ivanovic
Millwall
🔄
80'
T. Ballo ↔ T. Watson
Millwall
🟨
81'
Danny McNamara
Millwall
🔄
85'
F. Azeez ↔ L. Cundle
Millwall
🔄
85'
C. De Norre ↔ M. Langstaff
Millwall

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 56.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 56.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 68.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
56.5%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
56.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
68.4%
-
Probability Distribution
Stoke City Win 33%
Draw 10.5%
Millwall Win 56.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Stoke City1.15
Millwall1.25
Recent Form (Last 5)
Stoke City Stoke City
WWDLW
51 GF / 50 GA
Millwall Millwall
WLDWL
59 GF / 52 GA
Key Stats
1.13
Average Goals Scored
1.34
1.11
Average Goals Conceded
1.18
19
BTTS Yes
22
19
Over 2.5
22
3.8
Shots on Goal
4.16

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Stoke City Stoke City 45 matches
Millwall Millwall 44 matches
Stoke City Statistic Millwall
16 Wins 22
10 Draws 10
19 Losses 12
51 Goals For 59
50 Goals Against 52
1.13 Avg Goals Scored 1.34
1.11 Avg Goals Conceded 1.18
19 BTTS Yes 22
30 Over 1.5 35
19 Over 2.5 22
7 Over 3.5 10
14 Clean Sheets 17
16 Failed To Score 8
3.8 Shots On Goal 4.16
11.07 Total Shots 12.52
5.53 Corners 5.43
51.3% Ball Possession 45.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Stoke City appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Millwall. Millwall carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 3 with 76 points while Stoke City sit 17 on 55, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Stoke City have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Millwall.

Stoke City Analysis

With 55 points from 43 games and a place of 17, Stoke City still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 15 wins, 10 draws, and 18 losses, together with goals at 49:46, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through S. Thomas (10 goals), M. Manhoef (7 goals), D. Mubama (5 goals), with creative support from S. Thomas (10 assists), M. Manhoef (3 assists), J. Bae (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 9 wins, 6 draws, and 6 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with A. Ampah, V. Johansson, B. Wilmot unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Millwall Analysis

Millwall arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 3 place with 76 points after 43 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 22 wins, 10 draws, and 11 losses, while the 56:47 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on M. Ivanovic (9 goals), F. Azeez (8 goals), Josh Coburn (8 goals), with creative support from F. Azeez (7 assists), T. Crama (6 assists), A. Doughty (5 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 10 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with L. Jensen, D. Kelly, M. Luongo unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Stoke City won 1 times, Millwall won 9 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:17 from Stoke City's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 1.53 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.5%)
Predicted formations: Stoke City 4-2-3-1 / Millwall 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Stoke City 9, Millwall 7
H2H summary: Stoke City wins 1, draws 5, Millwall wins 9
Stats
Stoke City Stoke City
Millwall Millwall
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
6
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
3
11 Corner Kicks 1
8 Fouls 11
3 Offsides 4
47% Ball Possession 53%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Goal 6
5 Shots off Goal 5
3 Blocked Shots 3
6 Shots insidebox 11
6 Shots outsidebox 3
3 Goalkeeper Saves 4
327 Total passes 382
234 Passes accurate 294
0.98 expected_goals 1.48
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Stoke City
Formation
Millwall
G. Bazunu
G. Bazunu
S. Agina
S. Agina
A. Phillips
A. Phillips
R. Otegbayo
R. Otegbayo
E. Bocat
E. Bocat
S. N'Zonzi
S. N'Zonzi
T. Seko
T. Seko
M. Manhoef
M. Manhoef
L. Baker
L. Baker
S. Thomas
S. Thomas
R. Bozenik
R. Bozenik
A. Patterson
A. Patterson
T. Crama
T. Crama
C. Taylor
C. Taylor
J. Cooper
J. Cooper
Z. Sturge
Z. Sturge
D. Mazou-Sacko
D. Mazou-Sacko
C. De Norre
C. De Norre
F. Azeez
F. Azeez
C. Neghli
🎯
C. Neghli
T. Ballo
🎯
T. Ballo
J. Coburn
J. Coburn
Stoke City 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
31
G. Bazunu
G
50
S. Agina
D
26
A. Phillips
D
54
R. Otegbayo
D
17
E. Bocat
D
15
S. N'Zonzi
↓ 74'
M
12
T. Seko
M
42
M. Manhoef
↓ 59'
M
8
L. Baker
↓ 59'
M
7
S. Thomas
M
11
R. Bozenik
↓ 74'
F
Substitutes
25
T. Simkin
G
4
B. Pearson
↑ 74'
M
29
L. Cisse
↑ 59'
F
49
M. Smit
↑ 74'
F
20
S. Gallagher
↑ 59'
F
21
J. Rak-Sakyi
F
9
D. Mubama
F
10
J. Bae
M
59
G. Kelly
M
Millwall 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
13
A. Patterson
G
4
T. Crama
D
6
C. Taylor
⚽ 60'
D
5
J. Cooper
D
3
Z. Sturge
↓ 80'
D
49
D. Mazou-Sacko
🟨 5'
M
24
C. De Norre
↓ 85' 🟨 15'
M
11
F. Azeez
⚽ 55' ↓ 85'
M
10
C. Neghli
⚽ 20' 🎯 69'
M
7
T. Ballo
🎯 55' ↓ 80'
M
19
J. Coburn
⚽ 69' ↓ 80'
F
Substitutes
15
M. Crocombe
G
67
B. Bannan
M
18
R. Leonard
M
2
D. McNamara
↑ 80' 🟨 81'
D
25
L. Cundle
↑ 85'
M
29
Z. Lovelace
F
9
M. Ivanovic
↑ 80'
F
17
M. Langstaff
↑ 85'
F
22
T. Watson
↑ 80'
F
Last matches: Stoke City
01.08.26
Fri
Stoke City
Valencia
1
1
D
28.07.26
Fri
Stoke City
Everton
1
0
W
18.07.26
Fri
Stoke City
Crewe
1
1
D
10.07.26
Fri
Stoke City
SC Braga
0
1
L
02.05.26
Cha
Stoke City
Bristol City
0
2
L
25.04.26
Cha
Stoke City
Portsmouth
1
3
L
18.04.26
Cha
Stoke City
Wrexham
0
2
L
11.04.26
Cha
Stoke City
Blackburn
1
1
D
06.04.26
Cha
Stoke City
Derby
0
2
L
03.04.26
Cha
Stoke City
Sheffield Wednesday
2
0
W
20.03.26
Cha
Stoke City
Preston
1
3
L
14.03.26
Cha
Stoke City
Watford
3
1
W
10.03.26
Cha
Stoke City
Ipswich
3
3
D
07.03.26
Cha
Stoke City
Swansea
0
2
L
28.02.26
Cha
Stoke City
Coventry
1
2
L
25.02.26
Cha
Stoke City
Oxford United
2
1
W
21.02.26
Cha
Stoke City
Leicester
2
2
D
15.02.26
FA
Stoke City
Fulham
1
2
L
11.02.26
Cha
Stoke City
Charlton
0
1
L
07.02.26
Cha
Stoke City
West Brom
0
0
D
Last matches: Millwall
01.08.26
Fri
Millwall
Antwerp
1
0
W
28.07.26
Fri
Millwall
Bromley
1
1
D
25.07.26
Fri
Millwall
Stevenage
0
1
L
21.07.26
Fri
Millwall
Gillingham
0
1
L
17.07.26
Fri
Millwall
Eldense
2
1
W
14.07.26
Fri
Millwall
FC Andorra
1
2
L
11.05.26
Cha
Millwall
Hull City
0
2
L
08.05.26
Cha
Millwall
Hull City
0
0
D
02.05.26
Cha
Millwall
Oxford United
2
0
W
24.04.26
Cha
Millwall
Leicester
1
1
D
18.04.26
Cha
Millwall
QPR
2
0
W
10.04.26
Cha
Millwall
West Brom
0
0
D
06.04.26
Cha
Millwall
Norwich
1
2
L
03.04.26
Cha
Millwall
Middlesbrough
2
1
W
21.03.26
Cha
Millwall
Ipswich
1
1
D
14.03.26
Cha
Millwall
Blackburn
1
2
L
10.03.26
Cha
Millwall
Derby
1
0
W
07.03.26
Cha
Millwall
Hull City
3
1
W
28.02.26
Cha
Millwall
Preston
2
0
W
25.02.26
Cha
Millwall
Birmingham
3
0
W
H2H: Stoke City vs Millwall
21.04.26
H2H
Stoke City
Millwall
1
3
L
21.10.25
H2H
Millwall
Stoke City
2
0
L
15.03.25
H2H
Millwall
Stoke City
1
0
L
09.11.24
H2H
Stoke City
Millwall
1
1
D
23.12.23
H2H
Stoke City
Millwall
0
0
D
26.08.23
H2H
Millwall
Stoke City
1
0
L
25.02.23
H2H
Stoke City
Millwall
0
1
L
30.07.22
H2H
Millwall
Stoke City
2
0
L
19.03.22
H2H
Stoke City
Millwall
2
0
W
23.10.21
H2H
Millwall
Stoke City
2
1
L
05.04.21
H2H
Stoke City
Millwall
1
2
L
12.09.20
H2H
Millwall
Stoke City
0
0
D
11.01.20
H2H
Stoke City
Millwall
0
0
D
26.10.19
H2H
Millwall
Stoke City
2
0
L
27.04.19
H2H
Millwall
Stoke City
0
0
D
Last matches: Stoke City
01.08.26
Fri
Stoke City
Valencia
1
1
D
28.07.26
Fri
Stoke City
Everton
1
0
W
10.07.26
Fri
Stoke City
SC Braga
0
1
L
25.04.26
Cha
Stoke City
Portsmouth
1
3
L
11.04.26
Cha
Stoke City
Blackburn
1
1
D
03.04.26
Cha
Stoke City
Sheffield Wednesday
2
0
W
14.03.26
Cha
Stoke City
Watford
3
1
W
10.03.26
Cha
Stoke City
Ipswich
3
3
D
25.02.26
Cha
Stoke City
Oxford United
2
1
W
21.02.26
Cha
Stoke City
Leicester
2
2
D
15.02.26
FA
Stoke City
Fulham
1
2
L
31.01.26
Cha
Stoke City
Southampton
0
2
L
21.01.26
Cha
Stoke City
Middlesbrough
1
2
L
17.01.26
Cha
Stoke City
QPR
0
0
D
10.01.26
FA
Stoke City
Coventry
1
0
W
29.12.25
Cha
Stoke City
Sheffield Utd
1
2
L
26.12.25
Cha
Stoke City
Preston
0
0
D
13.12.25
Cha
Stoke City
Swansea
2
1
W
29.11.25
Cha
Stoke City
Hull City
1
2
L
25.11.25
Cha
Stoke City
Charlton
3
0
W
H2H at home: Stoke City
21.04.26
H2H
Stoke City
Millwall
1
3
L
09.11.24
H2H
Stoke City
Millwall
1
1
D
23.12.23
H2H
Stoke City
Millwall
0
0
D
25.02.23
H2H
Stoke City
Millwall
0
1
L
19.03.22
H2H
Stoke City
Millwall
2
0
W
05.04.21
H2H
Stoke City
Millwall
1
2
L
11.01.20
H2H
Stoke City
Millwall
0
0
D
Last matches: Millwall
28.07.26
Fri
Millwall
Bromley
1
1
D
25.07.26
Fri
Millwall
Stevenage
0
1
L
21.07.26
Fri
Millwall
Gillingham
0
1
L
17.07.26
Fri
Millwall
Eldense
2
1
W
14.07.26
Fri
Millwall
FC Andorra
1
2
L
08.05.26
Cha
Millwall
Hull City
0
0
D
24.04.26
Cha
Millwall
Leicester
1
1
D
10.04.26
Cha
Millwall
West Brom
0
0
D
03.04.26
Cha
Millwall
Middlesbrough
2
1
W
21.03.26
Cha
Millwall
Ipswich
1
1
D
07.03.26
Cha
Millwall
Hull City
3
1
W
28.02.26
Cha
Millwall
Preston
2
0
W
14.02.26
Cha
Millwall
Sheffield Wednesday
2
1
W
07.02.26
Cha
Millwall
Wrexham
2
0
W
20.01.26
Cha
Millwall
Coventry
1
2
L
17.01.26
Cha
Millwall
Watford
2
0
W
10.01.26
FA
Millwall
Burnley
1
5
L
01.01.26
Cha
Millwall
Southampton
0
0
D
20.12.25
Cha
Millwall
Blackburn
0
2
L
10.12.25
Cha
Millwall
Derby
1
1
D
H2H away: Millwall
21.04.26
H2H
Stoke City
Millwall
1
3
W
09.11.24
H2H
Stoke City
Millwall
1
1
D
23.12.23
H2H
Stoke City
Millwall
0
0
D
25.02.23
H2H
Stoke City
Millwall
0
1
W
19.03.22
H2H
Stoke City
Millwall
2
0
L
05.04.21
H2H
Stoke City
Millwall
1
2
W
11.01.20
H2H
Stoke City
Millwall
0
0
D

Standings

Championship
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 28 11 7 97:45 52 95
W W W D D
2 46 23 15 8 80:47 33 84
W D D W D
3 46 24 11 11 64:49 15 83
L D W D W
4 46 22 14 10 82:56 26 80
W D W D D
5 46 22 14 10 72:47 25 80
L L D D W
6 46 21 10 15 70:66 4 73
W W D W L
7 46 19 14 13 69:65 4 71
D L W W L
8 46 20 9 17 67:59 8 69
L W L W L
9 46 19 8 19 63:56 7 65
L D W W L
10 46 17 13 16 57:56 1 64
D W W D W
11 46 18 10 18 57:59 -2 64
W D W L W
12 46 17 11 18 59:59 0 62
W L D L D
13 46 18 6 22 66:66 0 60
W L L W W
14 46 15 15 16 55:62 -7 60
L W L L W
15 46 16 10 20 61:73 -12 58
L L L L D
16 46 14 15 17 53:65 -12 57
L L L L L
17 46 15 10 21 51:56 -5 55
L L L L D
18 46 14 13 19 49:64 -15 55
D W L W W
19 46 13 14 19 44:58 -14 53
L W L D L
20 46 13 13 20 42:56 -14 52
L W D L D
21 46 13 14 19 48:58 -10 51
L D W W D
22 46 11 14 21 45:59 -14 47
L W L L W
23 46 12 16 18 58:68 -10 46
W D D L L
24 46 2 12 32 29:89 -60 0
W L L D D
Promotion
Promotion Playoffs
Relegation

Missing Players

Stoke City 9 missing
-
A. Ampah
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
A. Cresswell
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
V. Johansson
Missing Fixture Shoulder Injury
OUT
-
B. Wilmot
Missing Fixture Calf Injury
OUT
-
M. Talovierov
Missing Fixture Ankle Injury
OUT
-
J. Tchamadeu
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
T. Rigo
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
B. Gibson
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
B. Lawal
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
Millwall 7 missing
-
L. Jensen
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
D. Kelly
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
M. Luongo
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
A. Doughty
Questionable Calf Injury
OUT
-
J. Bryan
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
D. Mazou-Sacko
Questionable Inactive
OUT
-
B. Mitchell
Questionable Inactive
OUT