ENGLAND LEAGUE ONE
--.--.---- --:--
Lamex Stadium
Referee: N. Hair
Stevenage
Match Timeline
Lincoln
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
3'
L. Thompson · Assist: C. Piergianni
Stevenage
17'
T. Darikwa
Lincoln
27'
J. Reid · Assist: D. Kemp
Stevenage
🟨
44'
Sonny Bradley
Lincoln
🟨
45+2'
Matt Phillips
Stevenage
🟨
51'
Ivan Varfolomeev
Lincoln
🔄
56'
L. Thompson ↔ J. Houghton
Stevenage
🔄
62'
I. Varfolomeev ↔ T. Bayliss
Lincoln
🔄
62'
B. House ↔ A. Lloyd
Lincoln
🔄
63'
R. One ↔ R. Street
Lincoln
🔄
77'
T. Darikwa ↔ D. Elerewe
Lincoln
🔄
78'
R. Towler ↔ D. Jefferies
Lincoln
🔄
87'
J. Reid ↔ D. Sweeney
Stevenage
🔄
87'
M. Phillips ↔ B. Lubala
Stevenage
🟨
90+5'
Robert Street
Lincoln
🔄
90+6'
S. Earley ↔ D. Butler
Stevenage
90'
R. Street
Lincoln

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 59%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 53.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 54%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
59%
-
BTTS BTTS No
53.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
54%
-
Probability Distribution
Stevenage Win 30.9%
Draw 10.1%
Lincoln Win 59%
Expected Goals (xG)
Stevenage0.96
Lincoln1.52
Recent Form (Last 5)
Stevenage Stevenage
WWDLW
44 GF / 44 GA
Lincoln Lincoln
WLDWL
80 GF / 37 GA
Key Stats
1.02
Average Goals Scored
1.86
1.02
Average Goals Conceded
0.86
19
BTTS Yes
22
16
Over 2.5
23
3.5
Shots on Goal
4.57

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Stevenage Stevenage 43 matches
Lincoln Lincoln 43 matches
Stevenage Statistic Lincoln
19 Wins 28
10 Draws 10
14 Losses 5
44 Goals For 80
44 Goals Against 37
1.02 Avg Goals Scored 1.86
1.02 Avg Goals Conceded 0.86
19 BTTS Yes 22
22 Over 1.5 33
16 Over 2.5 23
8 Over 3.5 13
17 Clean Sheets 17
12 Failed To Score 5
3.5 Shots On Goal 4.57
9.9 Total Shots 12.45
4.5 Corners 4.14
45.3% Ball Possession 42%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Lincoln carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 93 points while Stevenage sit 6 on 67, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Lincoln. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Lincoln having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Lincoln look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match.

Stevenage Analysis

Stevenage sit 6 with 67 points after 42 league matches. The record of 19 wins, 10 draws, and 13 defeats, together with a 43:38 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through J. Reid (13 goals), Daniel Kemp (6 goals), C. Campbell (4 goals), with creative support from H. White (7 assists), J. Reid (3 assists), Daniel Kemp (3 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, the record of 12 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Lincoln Analysis

Lincoln approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 93 points after 42 outings. The return of 28 wins, 9 draws, and 5 defeats, together with goals at 79:36, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through Jack Moylan (10 goals), R. Hackett-Fairchild (9 goals), Robert Street (8 goals), with creative support from R. Hackett-Fairchild (7 assists), Jack Moylan (4 assists), A. Reach (4 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, the split of 11 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Stevenage won 1 times, Lincoln won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:12 from Stevenage's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.8 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.9%)
Predicted formations: Stevenage 4-2-3-1 / Lincoln 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Stevenage wins 1, draws 4, Lincoln wins 5
Stats
Stevenage Stevenage
Lincoln Lincoln
Shots on Goal
3
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
2
Shots off Goal
1
Blocked Shots
1
Blocked Shots
2
2 Corner Kicks 8
11 Fouls 17
0 Offsides 3
40% Ball Possession 60%
6 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Goal 4
2 Shots off Goal 1
1 Blocked Shots 2
5 Shots insidebox 4
1 Shots outsidebox 3
2 Goalkeeper Saves 1
258 Total passes 390
163 Passes accurate 257
0.89 expected_goals 0.81
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Lincoln
Formation
Stevenage
G. Wickens
G. Wickens
T. Darikwa
T. Darikwa
T. Hamer
T. Hamer
S. Bradley
S. Bradley
R. Towler
R. Towler
I. Varfolomeev
I. Varfolomeev
C. McGrandles
C. McGrandles
R. Hackett-Fairchild
R. Hackett-Fairchild
J. Moylan
J. Moylan
B. House
B. House
R. One
R. One
F. Marschall
F. Marschall
J. Pattenden
J. Pattenden
C. Piergianni
🎯
C. Piergianni
C. Goode
C. Goode
S. Earley
S. Earley
D. Kemp
🎯
D. Kemp
L. Thompson
L. Thompson
H. White
H. White
J. Roberts
J. Roberts
M. Phillips
M. Phillips
J. Reid
J. Reid
Lincoln 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
G. Wickens
G
2
T. Darikwa
⚽ 17' ↓ 77'
D
22
T. Hamer
D
15
S. Bradley
🟨 44'
D
6
R. Towler
↓ 78'
D
24
I. Varfolomeev
↓ 62' 🟨 51'
M
14
C. McGrandles
M
7
R. Hackett-Fairchild
M
10
J. Moylan
M
18
B. House
↓ 62'
M
20
R. One
↓ 63'
F
Substitutes
13
Z. Jeacock
G
8
T. Bayliss
↑ 62'
M
17
R. Street
⚽ 90' ↑ 63' 🟨 90+5'
F
16
D. Jefferies
↑ 78'
M
12
E. Ring
M
19
A. Lloyd
↑ 62'
F
25
D. Elerewe
↑ 77'
D
Stevenage 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
F. Marschall
G
17
J. Pattenden
D
5
C. Piergianni
🎯 3'
D
15
C. Goode
D
14
S. Earley
↓ 90+6'
D
10
D. Kemp
🎯 27'
M
23
L. Thompson
⚽ 3' ↓ 56'
M
18
H. White
M
11
J. Roberts
M
25
M. Phillips
↓ 87' 🟨 45+2'
F
19
J. Reid
⚽ 27' ↓ 87'
F
Substitutes
13
T. Ashby-Hammond
G
4
J. Houghton
↑ 56'
M
6
D. Sweeney
↑ 87'
D
44
P. Patterson
F
30
B. Lubala
↑ 87'
F
3
D. Butler
↑ 90+6'
D
20
C. Campbell
M
Last matches: Stevenage
01.08.26
Fri
Stevenage
Colchester
1
0
W
25.07.26
Fri
Stevenage
Millwall
1
0
W
22.07.26
Fri
Stevenage
West Ham
0
5
L
18.07.26
Fri
Stevenage
FC Andorra
0
0
D
13.05.26
Lea
Stevenage
Stockport County
0
2
L
09.05.26
Lea
Stevenage
Stockport County
0
1
L
02.05.26
Lea
Stevenage
Wigan
1
0
W
25.04.26
Lea
Stevenage
Doncaster
1
1
D
21.04.26
Lea
Stevenage
Barnsley
1
0
W
14.04.26
Lea
Stevenage
Bolton
1
5
L
11.04.26
Lea
Stevenage
Bradford
1
0
W
06.04.26
Lea
Stevenage
Blackpool
1
0
W
03.04.26
Lea
Stevenage
Rotherham
0
0
D
21.03.26
Lea
Stevenage
Reading
1
0
W
17.03.26
Lea
Stevenage
Plymouth
0
1
L
14.03.26
Lea
Stevenage
AFC Wimbledon
1
0
W
10.03.26
Lea
Stevenage
Leyton Orient
1
2
L
07.03.26
Lea
Stevenage
Burton Albion
1
0
W
28.02.26
Lea
Stevenage
Stockport County
2
1
W
21.02.26
Lea
Stevenage
Wycombe
1
3
L
Last matches: Lincoln
01.08.26
Fri
Lincoln
Barnsley
0
3
L
01.08.26
Fri
Lincoln
Doncaster
1
0
W
28.07.26
Fri
Lincoln
Grimsby
1
5
L
17.07.26
Fri
Lincoln
Leyton Orient
0
2
L
11.07.26
Fri
Lincoln
Boston United
1
0
W
10.07.26
Fri
Lincoln
Lincoln United
1
2
L
02.05.26
Lea
Lincoln
Port Vale
2
0
W
25.04.26
Lea
Lincoln
Wycombe
4
3
W
21.04.26
Lea
Lincoln
Doncaster
2
0
W
11.04.26
Lea
Lincoln
Leyton Orient
2
1
W
06.04.26
Lea
Lincoln
Reading
2
1
W
03.04.26
Lea
Lincoln
AFC Wimbledon
1
0
W
21.03.26
Lea
Lincoln
Rotherham
3
0
W
17.03.26
Lea
Lincoln
Huddersfield
2
2
D
14.03.26
Lea
Lincoln
Stockport County
3
1
W
10.03.26
Lea
Lincoln
Exeter City
1
0
W
07.03.26
Lea
Lincoln
Cardiff
2
0
W
28.02.26
Lea
Lincoln
Blackpool
4
0
W
21.02.26
Lea
Lincoln
Mansfield Town
2
0
W
17.02.26
Lea
Lincoln
Northampton
4
0
W
H2H: Stevenage vs Lincoln
18.04.26
H2H
Stevenage
Lincoln
2
2
D
18.10.25
H2H
Lincoln
Stevenage
1
0
L
04.01.25
H2H
Lincoln
Stevenage
0
0
D
31.08.24
H2H
Stevenage
Lincoln
0
1
L
02.03.24
H2H
Lincoln
Stevenage
0
0
D
18.11.23
H2H
Stevenage
Lincoln
1
0
W
16.02.19
H2H
Lincoln
Stevenage
2
2
D
08.12.18
H2H
Stevenage
Lincoln
0
1
L
26.12.17
H2H
Lincoln
Stevenage
3
0
L
09.09.17
H2H
Stevenage
Lincoln
1
2
L
Last matches: Stevenage
01.08.26
Fri
Stevenage
Colchester
1
0
W
25.07.26
Fri
Stevenage
Millwall
1
0
W
22.07.26
Fri
Stevenage
West Ham
0
5
L
09.05.26
Lea
Stevenage
Stockport County
0
1
L
02.05.26
Lea
Stevenage
Wigan
1
0
W
21.04.26
Lea
Stevenage
Barnsley
1
0
W
06.04.26
Lea
Stevenage
Blackpool
1
0
W
21.03.26
Lea
Stevenage
Reading
1
0
W
14.03.26
Lea
Stevenage
AFC Wimbledon
1
0
W
10.03.26
Lea
Stevenage
Leyton Orient
1
2
L
28.02.26
Lea
Stevenage
Stockport County
2
1
W
17.02.26
Lea
Stevenage
Port Vale
2
1
W
14.02.26
Lea
Stevenage
Huddersfield
1
0
W
27.01.26
Lea
Stevenage
Peterborough
1
0
W
24.01.26
Lea
Stevenage
Mansfield Town
1
1
D
20.01.26
Lea
Stevenage
Bolton
0
0
D
01.01.26
Lea
Stevenage
Plymouth
1
1
D
20.12.25
Lea
Stevenage
Burton Albion
2
2
D
09.12.25
Lea
Stevenage
Cardiff
0
1
L
22.11.25
Lea
Stevenage
Doncaster
0
0
D
H2H at home: Stevenage
18.04.26
H2H
Stevenage
Lincoln
2
2
D
31.08.24
H2H
Stevenage
Lincoln
0
1
L
18.11.23
H2H
Stevenage
Lincoln
1
0
W
08.12.18
H2H
Stevenage
Lincoln
0
1
L
09.09.17
H2H
Stevenage
Lincoln
1
2
L
Last matches: Lincoln
01.08.26
Fri
Lincoln
Barnsley
0
3
L
01.08.26
Fri
Lincoln
Doncaster
1
0
W
28.07.26
Fri
Lincoln
Grimsby
1
5
L
11.07.26
Fri
Lincoln
Boston United
1
0
W
10.07.26
Fri
Lincoln
Lincoln United
1
2
L
02.05.26
Lea
Lincoln
Port Vale
2
0
W
21.04.26
Lea
Lincoln
Doncaster
2
0
W
06.04.26
Lea
Lincoln
Reading
2
1
W
17.03.26
Lea
Lincoln
Huddersfield
2
2
D
10.03.26
Lea
Lincoln
Exeter City
1
0
W
07.03.26
Lea
Lincoln
Cardiff
2
0
W
21.02.26
Lea
Lincoln
Mansfield Town
2
0
W
07.02.26
Lea
Lincoln
Plymouth
4
1
W
31.01.26
Lea
Lincoln
Wigan
1
0
W
17.01.26
Lea
Lincoln
Luton
2
2
D
29.12.25
Lea
Lincoln
Barnsley
2
0
W
26.12.25
Lea
Lincoln
Stockport County
2
1
W
13.12.25
Lea
Lincoln
Blackpool
2
2
D
22.11.25
Lea
Lincoln
Wycombe
2
3
L
08.11.25
Lea
Lincoln
Rotherham
0
3
L
H2H away: Lincoln
18.04.26
H2H
Stevenage
Lincoln
2
2
D
31.08.24
H2H
Stevenage
Lincoln
0
1
W
18.11.23
H2H
Stevenage
Lincoln
1
0
L
08.12.18
H2H
Stevenage
Lincoln
0
1
W
09.09.17
H2H
Stevenage
Lincoln
1
2
W

Standings

League One: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 31 10 5 89:41 48 103
W W W D W
2 46 27 10 9 90:50 40 91
L W W W D
3 46 22 11 13 71:58 13 77
W L W L D
4 46 22 11 13 58:51 7 77
W D D D L
5 46 19 18 9 70:52 18 75
L D D W L
6 46 21 12 13 49:46 3 75
W D W D L
7 46 21 11 14 68:56 12 74
W W W D W
8 46 22 7 17 75:63 12 73
W W D W D
9 46 18 13 15 74:64 10 67
W L D D D
10 46 16 17 13 62:50 12 65
W D W W D
11 46 17 12 17 69:58 11 63
W L L D L
12 46 16 15 15 64:60 4 63
L D L L L
13 46 17 9 20 54:65 -11 60
W W W W L
14 46 17 9 20 50:69 -19 60
W D L W W
15 46 15 14 17 68:73 -5 59
L W L L D
16 46 14 14 18 49:58 -9 56
L L D W W
17 46 13 15 18 50:60 -10 54
D D D W D
18 46 15 8 23 64:68 -4 53
L D L D L
19 46 15 8 23 51:72 -21 53
L W L L L
20 46 14 10 22 59:71 -12 52
D L L D L
21 46 12 13 21 52:61 -9 49
L D D D W
22 46 10 12 24 36:61 -25 42
L W L L D
23 46 10 11 25 41:71 -30 41
L D L W L
24 46 9 8 29 39:74 -35 35
L L L L L
Promotion - Championship
Promotion - League One (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two