ENGLAND LEAGUE ONE
18.04.2026 14:00
Lamex Stadium
Referee: N. Hair
Stevenage
Match Timeline
Lincoln
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
3'
L. Thompson · Assist: C. Piergianni
Stevenage
17'
T. Darikwa
Lincoln
27'
J. Reid · Assist: D. Kemp
Stevenage
🟨
44'
Sonny Bradley
Lincoln
🟨
45+2'
Matt Phillips
Stevenage
🟨
51'
Ivan Varfolomeev
Lincoln
🔄
56'
L. Thompson ↔ J. Houghton
Stevenage
🔄
62'
I. Varfolomeev ↔ T. Bayliss
Lincoln
🔄
62'
B. House ↔ A. Lloyd
Lincoln
🔄
63'
R. One ↔ R. Street
Lincoln
🔄
77'
T. Darikwa ↔ D. Elerewe
Lincoln
🔄
78'
R. Towler ↔ D. Jefferies
Lincoln
🔄
87'
J. Reid ↔ D. Sweeney
Stevenage
🔄
87'
M. Phillips ↔ B. Lubala
Stevenage
🟨
90+5'
Robert Street
Lincoln
🔄
90+6'
S. Earley ↔ D. Butler
Stevenage
90'
R. Street
Lincoln

Stevenage vs Lincoln Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 59%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 53.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 54%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
59%
-
BTTS BTTS No
53.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
54%
-
Probability Distribution
Stevenage Win 30.9%
Draw 10.1%
Lincoln Win 59%
Expected Goals (xG)
Stevenage0.96
Lincoln1.52
Recent Form (Last 5)
Stevenage Stevenage
WWDLW
44 GF / 44 GA
Lincoln Lincoln
WLDWL
80 GF / 37 GA
Key Stats
1.02
Average Goals Scored
1.86
1.02
Average Goals Conceded
0.86
19
BTTS Yes
22
16
Over 2.5
23
3.5
Shots on Goal
4.57

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Stevenage Stevenage 43 matches
Lincoln Lincoln 43 matches
Stevenage Statistic Lincoln
19 Wins 28
10 Draws 10
14 Losses 5
44 Goals For 80
44 Goals Against 37
1.02 Avg Goals Scored 1.86
1.02 Avg Goals Conceded 0.86
19 BTTS Yes 22
22 Over 1.5 33
16 Over 2.5 23
8 Over 3.5 13
17 Clean Sheets 17
12 Failed To Score 5
3.5 Shots On Goal 4.57
9.9 Total Shots 12.45
4.5 Corners 4.14
45.3% Ball Possession 42%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Lincoln carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 93 points while Stevenage sit 6 on 67, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Lincoln. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Lincoln having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Lincoln look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match.

Stevenage Analysis

Stevenage sit 6 with 67 points after 42 league matches. The record of 19 wins, 10 draws, and 13 defeats, together with a 43:38 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through J. Reid (13 goals), Daniel Kemp (6 goals), C. Campbell (4 goals), with creative support from H. White (7 assists), J. Reid (3 assists), Daniel Kemp (3 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, the record of 12 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Lincoln Analysis

Lincoln approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 93 points after 42 outings. The return of 28 wins, 9 draws, and 5 defeats, together with goals at 79:36, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through Jack Moylan (10 goals), R. Hackett-Fairchild (9 goals), Robert Street (8 goals), with creative support from R. Hackett-Fairchild (7 assists), Jack Moylan (4 assists), A. Reach (4 assists), while their defending has remained fairly stable. Away from home, the split of 11 wins, 5 draws, and 4 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Stevenage won 1 times, Lincoln won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:12 from Stevenage's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.8 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.9%)
Predicted formations: Stevenage 4-2-3-1 / Lincoln 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Stevenage wins 1, draws 4, Lincoln wins 5

Standings

League One: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 31 10 5 89:41 48 103
W W W D W
2 46 27 10 9 90:50 40 91
L W W W D
3 46 22 11 13 71:58 13 77
W L W L D
4 46 22 11 13 58:51 7 77
W D D D L
5 46 19 18 9 70:52 18 75
L D D W L
6 46 21 12 13 49:46 3 75
W D W D L
7 46 21 11 14 68:56 12 74
W W W D W
8 46 22 7 17 75:63 12 73
W W D W D
9 46 18 13 15 74:64 10 67
W L D D D
10 46 16 17 13 62:50 12 65
W D W W D
11 46 17 12 17 69:58 11 63
W L L D L
12 46 16 15 15 64:60 4 63
L D L L L
13 46 17 9 20 54:65 -11 60
W W W W L
14 46 17 9 20 50:69 -19 60
W D L W W
15 46 15 14 17 68:73 -5 59
L W L L D
16 46 14 14 18 49:58 -9 56
L L D W W
17 46 13 15 18 50:60 -10 54
D D D W D
18 46 15 8 23 64:68 -4 53
L D L D L
19 46 15 8 23 51:72 -21 53
L W L L L
20 46 14 10 22 59:71 -12 52
D L L D L
21 46 12 13 21 52:61 -9 49
L D D D W
22 46 10 12 24 36:61 -25 42
L W L L D
23 46 10 11 25 41:71 -30 41
L D L W L
24 46 9 8 29 39:74 -35 35
L L L L L
Promotion - Championship
Promotion - League One (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two