ENGLAND LEAGUE ONE
21.04.2026 18:45
Lamex Stadium
Referee: B. Speedie
Stevenage
Match Timeline
Barnsley
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
22'
D. Kemp
Stevenage
🔄
46'
J. Shepherd ↔ G. Gent
Barnsley
🔄
46'
S. Banks ↔ A. Phillips
Barnsley
🔄
46'
M. de Gevigney ↔ C. O'Keeffe
Barnsley
🔄
72'
J. Bland ↔ K. Nwakali
Barnsley
🔄
80'
L. Thompson ↔ J. Houghton
Stevenage
🔄
85'
J. Reid ↔ C. Campbell
Stevenage
🔄
85'
L. Connell ↔ L. Farrell
Barnsley
🔄
90+5'
M. Phillips ↔ B. Lubala
Stevenage

Stevenage vs Barnsley Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 53.4%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 72.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
53.4%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
72.7%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
71.2%
-
Probability Distribution
Stevenage Win 53.4%
Draw 8.4%
Barnsley Win 38.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Stevenage1.28
Barnsley1.36
Recent Form (Last 5)
Stevenage Stevenage
WWDLW
46 GF / 46 GA
Barnsley Barnsley
WLDWL
70 GF / 73 GA
Key Stats
1.05
Average Goals Scored
1.56
1.05
Average Goals Conceded
1.62
20
BTTS Yes
31
17
Over 2.5
29
3.49
Shots on Goal
3.91

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Stevenage Stevenage 44 matches
Barnsley Barnsley 45 matches
Stevenage Statistic Barnsley
19 Wins 16
11 Draws 14
14 Losses 15
46 Goals For 70
46 Goals Against 73
1.05 Avg Goals Scored 1.56
1.05 Avg Goals Conceded 1.62
20 BTTS Yes 31
23 Over 1.5 38
17 Over 2.5 29
9 Over 3.5 22
17 Clean Sheets 4
12 Failed To Score 11
3.49 Shots On Goal 3.91
9.81 Total Shots 11.49
4.44 Corners 4.87
45.2% Ball Possession 50.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Stevenage's more proactive style and Barnsley's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Barnsley having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Barnsley.

Stevenage Analysis

Stevenage are currently 6 in the standings with 68 points from 43 matches. Their overall return of 19 wins, 11 draws, and 13 losses with goals at 43:38 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by J. Reid (14 goals), Daniel Kemp (6 goals), C. Campbell (4 goals), with creative support from H. White (7 assists), Daniel Kemp (4 assists), J. Reid (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared fairly stable. At home, the record of 12 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Barnsley Analysis

Barnsley sit 12 with 56 points after 42 league matches. Their overall return of 14 wins, 14 draws, and 14 losses with goals at 63:65 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by David McGoldrick (15 goals), D. Keillor-Dunn (13 goals), A. Phillips (7 goals), with creative support from Reyes Cleary (13 assists), A. Phillips (5 assists), Patrick Kelly (5 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Stevenage won 4 times, Barnsley won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:6 from Stevenage's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.6%)
Predicted formations: Stevenage 4-2-3-1 / Barnsley 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Stevenage wins 4, draws 0, Barnsley wins 2

Standings

League One: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 46 31 10 5 89:41 48 103
W W W D W
2 46 27 10 9 90:50 40 91
L W W W D
3 46 22 11 13 71:58 13 77
W L W L D
4 46 22 11 13 58:51 7 77
W D D D L
5 46 19 18 9 70:52 18 75
L D D W L
6 46 21 12 13 49:46 3 75
W D W D L
7 46 21 11 14 68:56 12 74
W W W D W
8 46 22 7 17 75:63 12 73
W W D W D
9 46 18 13 15 74:64 10 67
W L D D D
10 46 16 17 13 62:50 12 65
W D W W D
11 46 17 12 17 69:58 11 63
W L L D L
12 46 16 15 15 64:60 4 63
L D L L L
13 46 17 9 20 54:65 -11 60
W W W W L
14 46 17 9 20 50:69 -19 60
W D L W W
15 46 15 14 17 68:73 -5 59
L W L L D
16 46 14 14 18 49:58 -9 56
L L D W W
17 46 13 15 18 50:60 -10 54
D D D W D
18 46 15 8 23 64:68 -4 53
L D L D L
19 46 15 8 23 51:72 -21 53
L W L L L
20 46 14 10 22 59:71 -12 52
D L L D L
21 46 12 13 21 52:61 -9 49
L D D D W
22 46 10 12 24 36:61 -25 42
L W L L D
23 46 10 11 25 41:71 -30 41
L D L W L
24 46 9 8 29 39:74 -35 35
L L L L L
Promotion - Championship
Promotion - League One (Play Offs)
Relegation - League Two