NORWAY ELITESERIEN
--.--.---- --:--
Sparebanken Sør Arena
Referee: U. Aslam

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 68.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
68.8%
-
BTTS Yes
78.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
76.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Start Win 68.8%
Draw 10.4%
Rosenborg Win 20.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Start1.17
Rosenborg1.56
Recent Form (Last 5)
Start Start
WWDLW
25 GF / 46 GA
Rosenborg Rosenborg
WLDWL
23 GF / 23 GA
Key Stats
1.14
Average Goals Scored
1.21
2.09
Average Goals Conceded
1.21
13
BTTS Yes
8
12
Over 2.5
9
3.54
Shots on Goal
3.5

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Start Start 22 matches
Rosenborg Rosenborg 19 matches
Start Statistic Rosenborg
4 Wins 8
5 Draws 4
13 Losses 7
25 Goals For 23
46 Goals Against 23
1.14 Avg Goals Scored 1.21
2.09 Avg Goals Conceded 1.21
13 BTTS Yes 8
21 Over 1.5 15
12 Over 2.5 9
8 Over 3.5 3
4 Clean Sheets 5
5 Failed To Score 8
3.54 Shots On Goal 3.5
11.38 Total Shots 11.83
3.23 Corners 5.83
39.7% Ball Possession 52.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Start expected to line up in 5-3-2 and Rosenborg in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Rosenborg having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Start have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Rosenborg.

Start Analysis

Start approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 16 with 7 points from 13 matches. The overall return of 1 wins, 4 draws, and 8 defeats with a 14:30 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on Jesper Cornelius (4 goals), Hakon Lorentzen (2 goals), Ousmane Diallo Toure (2 goals), with creative support from Tom Strannegård (3 assists), Hakon Lorentzen (2 assists), Erlend Segberg (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Rosenborg Analysis

So far, Rosenborg have built a campaign that leaves them 13 in the table on 12 points from 12 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 3 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, while the 12:18 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Amin Chiakha (3 goals), Simen Nordli (2 goals), Dino Islamović (2 goals), with creative support from Ole Selnaes (3 assists), Mads Bomholt (1 assists), Emil Konradsen Ceide (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Start won 0 times, Rosenborg won 7 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:13 from Start's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.75 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.6%)
Predicted formations: Start 5-3-2 / Rosenborg 4-4-2
Missing players: Start 6, Rosenborg 3
H2H summary: Start wins 0, draws 1, Rosenborg wins 7
Last matches: Start
08.08.26
Eli
Start
Fredrikstad
0
1
L
01.08.26
Eli
Start
Viking
0
3
L
25.07.26
Eli
Start
Kristiansund BK
2
1
W
12.07.26
Eli
Start
Brann
1
2
L
04.07.26
Fri
Start
Bodo/Glimt
0
4
L
29.05.26
Eli
Start
Fredrikstad
1
2
L
25.05.26
Eli
Start
Valerenga
2
0
W
20.05.26
Eli
Start
Bodo/Glimt
1
4
L
16.05.26
Eli
Start
Viking
3
6
L
03.05.26
Eli
Start
Tromso
1
1
D
30.04.26
Eli
Start
Bodo/Glimt
0
5
L
26.04.26
Eli
Start
Ham-Kam
1
2
L
19.04.26
Eli
Start
Molde
1
1
D
11.04.26
Eli
Start
Lillestrom
1
3
L
06.04.26
Eli
Start
Sarpsborg 08 FF
1
1
D
27.03.26
Fri
Start
Tromso
0
1
L
21.03.26
Eli
Start
Aalesund
1
1
D
15.03.26
Eli
Start
KFUM Oslo
0
2
L
08.03.26
Fri
Start
Sandefjord
2
3
L
28.02.26
Fri
Start
Bryne
2
2
D
Last matches: Rosenborg
14.08.26
Eli
Rosenborg
Viking
2
1
W
09.08.26
Eli
Rosenborg
Lillestrom
2
0
W
02.08.26
Eli
Rosenborg
Brann
2
3
L
27.07.26
Eli
Rosenborg
Fredrikstad
4
0
W
24.07.26
Fri
Rosenborg
Manchester United
0
5
L
12.07.26
Eli
Rosenborg
Kristiansund BK
3
0
W
05.07.26
Fri
Rosenborg
Molde
2
1
W
29.05.26
Eli
Rosenborg
Bodo/Glimt
2
2
D
25.05.26
Eli
Rosenborg
KFUM Oslo
0
2
L
16.05.26
Eli
Rosenborg
Aalesund
2
3
L
10.05.26
Eli
Rosenborg
Lillestrom
2
0
W
01.05.26
Eli
Rosenborg
Viking
0
3
L
25.04.26
Eli
Rosenborg
Brann
1
1
D
18.04.26
Eli
Rosenborg
Sandefjord
0
0
D
12.04.26
Eli
Rosenborg
Sarpsborg 08 FF
2
1
W
06.04.26
Eli
Rosenborg
Tromso
0
2
L
26.03.26
Fri
Rosenborg
Stjørdals-Blink
4
1
W
22.03.26
Eli
Rosenborg
Valerenga
0
2
L
14.03.26
Eli
Rosenborg
Molde
0
2
L
27.02.26
Fri
Rosenborg
Valerenga
0
1
L
H2H: Start vs Rosenborg
18.07.26
H2H
Start
Rosenborg
0
3
L
24.02.26
H2H
Rosenborg
Start
2
1
L
01.11.20
H2H
Rosenborg
Start
1
0
L
16.07.20
H2H
Start
Rosenborg
0
0
D
11.11.18
H2H
Start
Rosenborg
0
1
L
22.04.18
H2H
Rosenborg
Start
2
0
L
18.09.16
H2H
Rosenborg
Start
2
0
L
12.05.16
H2H
Start
Rosenborg
0
2
L
Last matches: Start
08.08.26
Eli
Start
Fredrikstad
0
1
L
01.08.26
Eli
Start
Viking
0
3
L
25.05.26
Eli
Start
Valerenga
2
0
W
20.05.26
Eli
Start
Bodo/Glimt
1
4
L
03.05.26
Eli
Start
Tromso
1
1
D
19.04.26
Eli
Start
Molde
1
1
D
21.03.26
Eli
Start
Aalesund
1
1
D
17.02.26
Fri
Start
Donn
2
0
W
03.02.26
Fri
Start
Vindbjart
2
0
W
H2H at home: Start
18.07.26
H2H
Start
Rosenborg
0
3
L
16.07.20
H2H
Start
Rosenborg
0
0
D
11.11.18
H2H
Start
Rosenborg
0
1
L
12.05.16
H2H
Start
Rosenborg
0
2
L
Last matches: Rosenborg
09.08.26
Eli
Rosenborg
Lillestrom
2
0
W
02.08.26
Eli
Rosenborg
Brann
2
3
L
25.05.26
Eli
Rosenborg
KFUM Oslo
0
2
L
01.05.26
Eli
Rosenborg
Viking
0
3
L
18.04.26
Eli
Rosenborg
Sandefjord
0
0
D
06.04.26
Eli
Rosenborg
Tromso
0
2
L
14.03.26
Eli
Rosenborg
Molde
0
2
L
19.02.26
Fri
Rosenborg
Ranheim
2
1
W
28.08.25
UEF
Rosenborg
FSV Mainz 05
1
4
L
14.08.25
UEF
Rosenborg
Hammarby FF
1
0
W
31.07.25
UEF
Rosenborg
Banga
2
0
W
H2H away: Rosenborg
18.07.26
H2H
Start
Rosenborg
0
3
W
16.07.20
H2H
Start
Rosenborg
0
0
D
11.11.18
H2H
Start
Rosenborg
0
1
W
12.05.16
H2H
Start
Rosenborg
0
2
W

Standings

Eliteserien
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 13 2 2 43:12 31 41
W W W W W
2 17 13 1 3 40:17 23 40
L W W D W
3 17 10 4 3 34:20 14 34
L W W W D
4 17 8 3 6 32:26 6 27
W L D W L
5 17 8 2 7 23:21 2 26
D L L L W
6 17 8 1 8 36:27 9 25
W W L W W
7 17 7 3 7 25:22 3 24
W W L W W
8 17 7 2 8 18:27 -9 23
W W W L L
9 17 6 4 7 20:23 -3 22
L L D W D
10 17 6 4 7 24:30 -6 22
L D W L L
11 17 6 3 8 28:34 -6 21
D L L W W
12 17 5 4 8 19:27 -8 19
D W W L L
13 17 5 3 9 15:23 -8 18
W L L L L
14 17 4 3 10 15:27 -12 15
L W L L D
15 17 2 9 6 27:41 -14 15
D D L D L
16
Start Home
17 2 4 11 16:38 -22 10
L L W L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Eliteserien (Relegation)
Relegation - OBOS-ligaen

Missing Players

Start 6 missing
-
J. Meyer
Missing Fixture Groin Injury
OUT
-
K. Tonnesen
Missing Fixture Leg Injury
OUT
-
F. Lien
Missing Fixture Foot Injury
OUT
-
S. Mvoue
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
M. Ugland
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
M. Nordal
Questionable Illness
OUT
Rosenborg 3 missing
-
A. F. Witry
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
E. Slordal
Missing Fixture Leg Injury
OUT
-
S. Nordli
Questionable Thigh Injury
OUT