IRELAND PREMIER DIVISION
--.--.---- --:--
Richmond Park
St Patrick's Athl.
Match Timeline
Dundalk
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
5'
Bobby Burns
Dundalk
🟨
12'
Robert Cornwall
Dundalk
🟨
24'
Aodh Dervin
Dundalk
🟨
35'
Anto Breslin
St Patrick's Athl.
36'
D. Horgan
Dundalk
🔄
46'
A. Dervin ↔ K. Buckley
Dundalk
🔄
46'
R. Cornwall ↔ E. Vassenin
Dundalk
🟨
49'
Sean Hoare
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
57'
A. Breslin ↔ J. McClelland
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
57'
B. Baggley ↔ C. Forrester
St Patrick's Athl.
57'
S. Hoare · Assist: A. Keena
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
69'
T. Clarke ↔ D. McDaid
Dundalk
🟨
70'
Keith Buckley
Dundalk
🔄
76'
R. Edmondson ↔ S. Rooney
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
76'
B. Burns ↔ S. Tracey
Dundalk
🔄
77'
C. Dillon ↔ L. Gaxha
Dundalk
🟨
90+4'
James Brown
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
90'
L. Turner ↔ D. Nugent
St Patrick's Athl.

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60.9%
Odds -
0 agree / 1 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60.9%
-
BTTS Yes
78.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
89.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
St Patrick's Athl. Win 60.9%
Draw 4%
Dundalk Win 35.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
St Patrick's Athl.1.6
Dundalk1.39
Recent Form (Last 5)
St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl.
WWDLW
45 GF / 25 GA
Dundalk Dundalk
WLDWL
44 GF / 39 GA
Key Stats
1.67
Average Goals Scored
1.69
0.93
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
11
BTTS Yes
19
11
Over 2.5
17
5.08
Shots on Goal
5.46

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl. 27 matches
Dundalk Dundalk 26 matches
St Patrick's Athl. Statistic Dundalk
13 Wins 10
7 Draws 8
7 Losses 8
45 Goals For 44
25 Goals Against 39
1.67 Avg Goals Scored 1.69
0.93 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
11 BTTS Yes 19
20 Over 1.5 23
11 Over 2.5 17
9 Over 3.5 10
10 Clean Sheets 5
9 Failed To Score 2
5.08 Shots On Goal 5.46
16.13 Total Shots 15.46
5.5 Corners 5.96
52.9% Ball Possession 49.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Dundalk arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Dundalk. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with St Patrick's Athl. expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Dundalk in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Dundalk having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

St Patrick's Athl. Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 42 points from 24 games, St Patrick's Athl. bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 12 wins, 6 draws, and 6 defeats, together with goals at 39:20, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through K. Leavy (4 goals), Ryan Edmondson (4 goals), Zac Elbouzedi (3 goals), with creative support from Zac Elbouzedi (3 assists), L. Turner (3 assists), J. Redmond (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. At home, the split of 9 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Dundalk Analysis

With 35 points from 24 games and a place of 4, Dundalk still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 9 wins, 8 draws, and 7 defeats, and the 38:36 goal record continues to suggest mixed form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on D. Horgan (4 goals), Tyreke Wilson (4 goals), G. Arubi (4 goals), with creative support from D. Horgan (3 assists), Eoin Kenny (3 assists), Tyreke Wilson (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, St Patrick's Athl. won 6 times, Dundalk won 4 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:18 from St Patrick's Athl.'s perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96%)
Predicted formations: St Patrick's Athl. 3-4-2-1 / Dundalk 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: St Patrick's Athl. wins 6, draws 5, Dundalk wins 4
Stats
St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk Dundalk
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
6
Blocked Shots
3
7 Corner Kicks 3
11 Fouls 18
6 Offsides 2
52% Ball Possession 48%
17 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Goal 4
6 Shots off Goal 5
6 Blocked Shots 3
13 Shots insidebox 9
4 Shots outsidebox 3
3 Goalkeeper Saves 4
376 Total passes 347
272 Passes accurate 253
1.98 expected_goals 1.43
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

St Patrick's Athl.
Formation
Dundalk
J. Anang
J. Anang
J. Redmond
J. Redmond
S. Hoare
S. Hoare
L. Turner
L. Turner
J. Brown
J. Brown
J. Lennon
J. Lennon
B. Baggley
B. Baggley
A. Breslin
A. Breslin
K. Leavy
K. Leavy
R. Edmondson
R. Edmondson
A. Keena
🎯
A. Keena
E. Minogue
E. Minogue
T. Wilson
T. Wilson
M. Animasahun
M. Animasahun
R. Cornwall
R. Cornwall
B. Burns
B. Burns
H. Groome
H. Groome
A. Dervin
A. Dervin
T. Clarke
T. Clarke
R. Teahan
R. Teahan
D. Horgan
D. Horgan
C. Dillon
C. Dillon
St Patrick's Athl. 3-4-1-2
Starting XI
94
J. Anang
G
4
J. Redmond
D
2
S. Hoare
⚽ 57' 🟨 49'
D
24
L. Turner
↓ 90'
D
23
J. Brown
🟨 90+4'
M
6
J. Lennon
M
19
B. Baggley
↓ 57'
M
3
A. Breslin
↓ 57' 🟨 35'
M
10
K. Leavy
F
27
R. Edmondson
↓ 76'
F
9
A. Keena
🎯 57'
F
Substitutes
1
D. Rogers
G
11
J. McClelland
↑ 57'
F
32
B. Canny
D
35
S. Rooney
↑ 76'
F
37
J. Byrne
M
8
C. Forrester
↑ 57'
M
16
D. Nugent
↑ 90'
M
5
T. Grivosti
D
48
R. Sheridan
M
Dundalk 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
E. Minogue
G
22
T. Wilson
D
4
M. Animasahun
D
24
R. Cornwall
↓ 46' 🟨 12'
D
3
B. Burns
↓ 76' 🟨 5'
D
8
H. Groome
M
6
A. Dervin
↓ 46' 🟨 24'
M
15
T. Clarke
↓ 69'
M
11
R. Teahan
M
7
D. Horgan
⚽ 36'
M
9
C. Dillon
↓ 77'
F
Substitutes
13
P. Cherrie
G
18
K. Buckley
↑ 46' 🟨 70'
M
27
D. McDaid
↑ 69'
M
12
L. Mulligan
D
17
S. Tracey
↑ 76'
M
10
L. Gaxha
↑ 77'
F
16
E. Vassenin
↑ 46'
D
19
S. Spaight
D
23
A. M. Keogh
M
Last matches: St Patrick's Athl.
21.08.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Drogheda United
2
0
W
09.08.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
2
1
W
02.08.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Derry City
1
1
D
14.07.26
Fri
St Patrick's Athl.
Doncaster
2
4
L
10.07.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
1
1
D
03.07.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Galway United
3
0
W
26.06.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Bohemians
0
2
L
19.06.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Sligo Rovers
2
0
W
12.06.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Drogheda United
2
0
W
29.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Shamrock Rovers
0
1
L
22.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Derry City
0
0
D
15.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
0
1
L
08.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
4
1
W
04.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Sligo Rovers
1
1
D
01.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Galway United
2
2
D
24.04.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Bohemians
3
1
W
17.04.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Drogheda United
3
1
W
10.04.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Shamrock Rovers
0
1
L
06.04.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
0
2
L
03.04.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Sligo Rovers
4
1
W
Last matches: Dundalk
21.08.26
Pre
Dundalk
Galway United
1
2
L
07.08.26
Pre
Dundalk
Shamrock Rovers
2
3
L
31.07.26
Pre
Dundalk
Sligo Rovers
1
1
D
10.07.26
Pre
Dundalk
Drogheda United
1
2
L
03.07.26
Pre
Dundalk
Shelbourne
1
2
L
26.06.26
Pre
Dundalk
Waterford
2
3
L
19.06.26
Pre
Dundalk
Bohemians
2
1
W
12.06.26
Pre
Dundalk
Galway United
1
0
W
29.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Derry City
2
1
W
22.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Drogheda United
1
1
D
15.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Shamrock Rovers
1
0
W
08.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Bohemians
1
3
L
04.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Waterford
3
3
D
01.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Shelbourne
1
2
L
25.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
Sligo Rovers
0
2
L
17.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
Galway United
2
1
W
10.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
Derry City
2
2
D
06.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
St Patrick's Athl.
2
0
W
03.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
Shelbourne
3
2
W
20.03.26
Pre
Dundalk
Bohemians
1
1
D
H2H: St Patrick's Athl. vs Dundalk
24.07.26
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
1
1
D
06.04.26
H2H
Dundalk
St Patrick's Athl.
2
0
L
27.02.26
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
4
0
W
05.09.24
H2H
Dundalk
St Patrick's Athl.
1
2
W
03.06.24
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
2
3
L
12.04.24
H2H
Dundalk
St Patrick's Athl.
0
0
D
08.03.24
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
1
0
W
22.09.23
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
3
1
W
26.06.23
H2H
Dundalk
St Patrick's Athl.
1
1
D
26.05.23
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
2
1
W
03.03.23
H2H
Dundalk
St Patrick's Athl.
5
0
L
07.10.22
H2H
Dundalk
St Patrick's Athl.
1
2
W
15.07.22
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
1
1
D
27.05.22
H2H
Dundalk
St Patrick's Athl.
1
0
L
08.04.22
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
0
0
D
Last matches: St Patrick's Athl.
02.08.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Derry City
1
1
D
03.07.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Galway United
3
0
W
19.06.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Sligo Rovers
2
0
W
12.06.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Drogheda United
2
0
W
15.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
0
1
L
08.05.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
4
1
W
24.04.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Bohemians
3
1
W
10.04.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Shamrock Rovers
0
1
L
03.04.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Sligo Rovers
4
1
W
16.03.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Derry City
0
0
D
13.03.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Drogheda United
4
1
W
02.03.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Galway United
1
0
W
27.02.26
Pre
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
4
0
W
23.01.26
Fri
St Patrick's Athl.
Cork City
1
1
D
07.08.25
UEF
St Patrick's Athl.
Beşiktaş
1
4
L
24.07.25
UEF
St Patrick's Athl.
Kalju Nomme
1
0
W
10.07.25
UEF
St Patrick's Athl.
Hegelmann Litauen
1
0
W
H2H at home: St Patrick's Athl.
24.07.26
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
1
1
D
27.02.26
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
4
0
W
03.06.24
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
2
3
L
08.03.24
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
1
0
W
22.09.23
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
3
1
W
26.05.23
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
2
1
W
15.07.22
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
1
1
D
08.04.22
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
0
0
D
Last matches: Dundalk
07.08.26
Pre
Dundalk
Shamrock Rovers
2
3
L
03.07.26
Pre
Dundalk
Shelbourne
1
2
L
19.06.26
Pre
Dundalk
Bohemians
2
1
W
12.06.26
Pre
Dundalk
Galway United
1
0
W
22.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Drogheda United
1
1
D
04.05.26
Pre
Dundalk
Waterford
3
3
D
25.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
Sligo Rovers
0
2
L
03.04.26
Pre
Dundalk
Shelbourne
3
2
W
20.03.26
Pre
Dundalk
Bohemians
1
1
D
06.03.26
Pre
Dundalk
Galway United
2
2
D
27.02.26
Pre
Dundalk
St Patrick's Athl.
0
4
L
23.02.26
Pre
Dundalk
Shamrock Rovers
1
1
D
13.02.26
Pre
Dundalk
Derry City
2
2
D
20.01.26
Fri
Dundalk
Shelbourne
1
2
L
16.01.26
Fri
Dundalk
UCD
5
1
W
H2H away: Dundalk
24.07.26
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
1
1
D
27.02.26
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
4
0
L
03.06.24
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
2
3
W
08.03.24
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
1
0
L
22.09.23
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
3
1
L
26.05.23
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
2
1
L
15.07.22
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
1
1
D
08.04.22
H2H
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
0
0
D

Standings

Premier Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 16 6 5 43:24 19 54
W D W W D
2 28 14 8 6 45:23 22 50
W W D D D
3 28 13 8 7 47:34 13 47
W L D W W
4 28 9 10 9 43:43 0 37
L L D D L
5 26 8 10 8 36:38 -2 34
L L W D L
6 28 7 12 9 38:37 1 33
L W D L W
7 27 8 9 10 35:41 -6 33
W D D D W
8 28 6 11 11 37:48 -11 29
D W W D D
9 28 6 10 12 31:45 -14 28
L D D D W
10 28 5 8 15 23:45 -22 23
D L D D L
Play-offs
Qualifying
Relegation Play-offs
Relegation