IRELAND PREMIER DIVISION
02.08.2026 16:00
Richmond Park
Referee: R. Harvey
St Patrick's Athl.
Match Timeline
Derry City
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
23'
James Brown
St Patrick's Athl.
27'
A. Keena
St Patrick's Athl.
🟨
34'
Kian Leavy
St Patrick's Athl.
🟨
37'
Adam O'Reilly
Derry City
🔄
46'
K. Leavy ↔ B. Baggley
St Patrick's Athl.
🟨
50'
Darragh Burns
Derry City
🔄
64'
J. Brown ↔ A. Breslin
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
67'
D. Burns ↔ L. Boyce
Derry City
🔄
67'
M. Duffy ↔ B. Cotter
Derry City
🔄
67'
E. Chapman ↔ P. McClean
Derry City
🔄
67'
C. Barr ↔ T. Smith
Derry City
72'
J. Clarke
Derry City
🔄
73'
A. Keena ↔ A. Olusanya
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
80'
J. Clarke ↔ J. Olayinka
Derry City
🔄
82'
D. Nugent ↔ R. Sheridan
St Patrick's Athl.
🟨
88'
Jamie Lennon
St Patrick's Athl.
🔄
90+2'
B. Fleming ↔ R. Slevin
Derry City

St Patrick's Athl. vs Derry City Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 82.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
82.8%
-
BTTS Yes
78.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
78.1%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
St Patrick's Athl. Win 82.8%
Draw 5.8%
Derry City Win 11.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
St Patrick's Athl.1.51
Derry City1.07
Recent Form (Last 5)
St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl.
WWDLW
46 GF / 26 GA
Derry City Derry City
WLDWL
36 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
1.64
Average Goals Scored
1.16
0.93
Average Goals Conceded
1.32
12
BTTS Yes
19
11
Over 2.5
16
5.08
Shots on Goal
3.66

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

St Patrick's Athl. St Patrick's Athl. 28 matches
Derry City Derry City 31 matches
St Patrick's Athl. Statistic Derry City
13 Wins 6
8 Draws 11
7 Losses 14
46 Goals For 36
26 Goals Against 41
1.64 Avg Goals Scored 1.16
0.93 Avg Goals Conceded 1.32
12 BTTS Yes 19
21 Over 1.5 20
11 Over 2.5 16
9 Over 3.5 8
10 Clean Sheets 6
9 Failed To Score 10
5.08 Shots On Goal 3.66
16.16 Total Shots 10.76
5.56 Corners 4.83
52.8% Ball Possession 45.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with St Patrick's Athl. expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and Derry City in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Derry City having the stronger overall control. St Patrick's Athl. arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 43 points compared to Derry City in 6 on 29, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Derry City. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

St Patrick's Athl. Analysis

St Patrick's Athl. come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 2 with 43 points from 25 matches. Their overall return of 12 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 40:21 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Kian Leavy (4 goals), Ryan Edmondson (4 goals), Zac Elbouzedi (3 goals), with creative support from Zac Elbouzedi (3 assists), Luke Turner (3 assists), Joe Redmond (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 9 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Derry City Analysis

So far, Derry City have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 29 points from 25 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 11 draws, and 8 losses, while the 32:31 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on James Clarke (4 goals), Kévin Santos (3 goals), Afolabi Akinyemi (2 goals), with creative support from Ben Doherty (2 assists), James Clarke (1 assists), Kévin Santos (1 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses points toward a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, St Patrick's Athl. won 3 times, Derry City won 7 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:18 from St Patrick's Athl.'s perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.2%)
Predicted formations: St Patrick's Athl. 3-4-1-2 / Derry City 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: St Patrick's Athl. wins 3, draws 5, Derry City wins 7

Standings

Premier Division
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 17 8 7 52:25 27 59
W W W L W
2 31 17 8 6 49:31 18 59
W L D D W
3 31 16 8 7 55:37 18 56
W W W W L
4 32 9 14 9 45:42 3 41
W D W D L
5 32 10 11 11 49:53 -4 41
L L D W L
6 31 9 12 10 41:44 -3 39
W L L D D
7 31 9 10 12 41:47 -6 37
L W L D W
8 32 7 13 12 44:54 -10 34
L D D W D
9 32 8 10 14 38:51 -13 34
L W W L L
10 32 5 8 19 24:54 -30 23
L L L L D
Play-offs
Qualifying
Relegation Play-offs
Relegation