Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home Win |
82.8%
|
- | |
| BTTS | Yes |
78.8%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
66.7%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
78.1%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Home / Home |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 2-1 |
-
|
- |
St Patrick's Athl.
Derry City
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
St Patrick's Athl.
28 matches
Derry City
31 matches
| St Patrick's Athl. | Statistic | Derry City |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | Wins | 6 |
| 8 | Draws | 11 |
| 7 | Losses | 14 |
| 46 | Goals For | 36 |
| 26 | Goals Against | 41 |
| 1.64 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.16 |
| 0.93 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.32 |
| 12 | BTTS Yes | 19 |
| 21 | Over 1.5 | 20 |
| 11 | Over 2.5 | 16 |
| 9 | Over 3.5 | 8 |
| 10 | Clean Sheets | 6 |
| 9 | Failed To Score | 10 |
| 5.08 | Shots On Goal | 3.66 |
| 16.16 | Total Shots | 10.76 |
| 5.56 | Corners | 4.83 |
| 52.8% | Ball Possession | 45.2% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with St Patrick's Athl. expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and Derry City in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Derry City having the stronger overall control. St Patrick's Athl. arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 43 points compared to Derry City in 6 on 29, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Derry City. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.
St Patrick's Athl. come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 2 with 43 points from 25 matches. Their overall return of 12 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses with goals at 40:21 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Kian Leavy (4 goals), Ryan Edmondson (4 goals), Zac Elbouzedi (3 goals), with creative support from Zac Elbouzedi (3 assists), Luke Turner (3 assists), Joe Redmond (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the record of 9 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.
So far, Derry City have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 29 points from 25 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 11 draws, and 8 losses, while the 32:31 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on James Clarke (4 goals), Kévin Santos (3 goals), Afolabi Akinyemi (2 goals), with creative support from Ben Doherty (2 assists), James Clarke (1 assists), Kévin Santos (1 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses points toward a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.
Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, St Patrick's Athl. won 3 times, Derry City won 7 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:18 from St Patrick's Athl.'s perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.
St Patrick's Athl.
8
7
3
2
4
2
Lineups
St Patrick's Athl.
Drogheda United
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
St Patrick's Athl.
Doncaster
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
Galway United
St Patrick's Athl.
Bohemians
St Patrick's Athl.
Sligo Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
Drogheda United
St Patrick's Athl.
Shamrock Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
Derry City
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
Sligo Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
Galway United
St Patrick's Athl.
Bohemians
St Patrick's Athl.
Drogheda United
St Patrick's Athl.
Shamrock Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
St Patrick's Athl.
Sligo Rovers
Derry City
Bohemians
Derry City
Sligo Rovers
Derry City
HNK Rijeka
Derry City
HNK Rijeka
Derry City
CSKA Sofia
Derry City
CSKA Sofia
Derry City
Waterford
Derry City
Drogheda United
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
Derry City
Galway United
Derry City
Bohemians
Derry City
Dundalk
Derry City
Shelbourne
Derry City
St Patrick's Athl.
Derry City
Waterford
Derry City
Drogheda United
Derry City
Galway United
Derry City
Bohemians
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
Derry City
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
St Patrick's Athl.
Galway United
St Patrick's Athl.
Sligo Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
Drogheda United
St Patrick's Athl.
Shelbourne
St Patrick's Athl.
Waterford
St Patrick's Athl.
Bohemians
St Patrick's Athl.
Shamrock Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
Sligo Rovers
St Patrick's Athl.
Derry City
St Patrick's Athl.
Drogheda United
St Patrick's Athl.
Galway United
St Patrick's Athl.
Dundalk
St Patrick's Athl.
Cork City
St Patrick's Athl.
Beşiktaş
St Patrick's Athl.
Kalju Nomme
St Patrick's Athl.
Hegelmann Litauen
Derry City
Bohemians
Derry City
HNK Rijeka
Derry City
CSKA Sofia
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
Derry City
Galway United
Derry City
Dundalk
Derry City
Waterford
Derry City
Drogheda United
Derry City
Bohemians
Derry City
Shelbourne
Derry City
Dundalk
Derry City
Sligo Rovers
Derry City
Galway United
Derry City
St Patrick's Athl.
Derry City
Shamrock Rovers
Derry City
Polessya
Derry City
Sligo Rovers
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 27 | 16 | 6 | 5 | 43:24 | 19 | 54 |
W
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 2 |
St Patrick's Athl.
Home
|
28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 45:23 | 22 | 50 |
W
W
D
D
D
|
| 3 | 28 | 13 | 8 | 7 | 47:34 | 13 | 47 |
W
L
D
W
W
|
|
| 4 | 28 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 43:43 | 0 | 37 |
L
L
D
D
L
|
|
| 5 | 26 | 8 | 10 | 8 | 36:38 | -2 | 34 |
L
L
W
D
L
|
|
| 6 |
Derry City
Away
|
28 | 7 | 12 | 9 | 38:37 | 1 | 33 |
L
W
D
L
W
|
| 7 | 27 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 35:41 | -6 | 33 |
W
D
D
D
W
|
|
| 8 | 28 | 6 | 11 | 11 | 37:48 | -11 | 29 |
D
W
W
D
D
|
|
| 9 | 28 | 6 | 10 | 12 | 31:45 | -14 | 28 |
L
D
D
D
W
|
|
| 10 | 28 | 5 | 8 | 15 | 23:45 | -22 | 23 |
D
L
D
D
L
|