SCOTLAND PREMIERSHIP
--.--.---- --:--
The SMISA Stadium
Referee: D. Robertson
ST Mirren
Match Timeline
Kilmarnock
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
9'
M. Freckleton
Kilmarnock
🔄
14'
C. McMenamin ↔ S. Tanser
ST Mirren
🟨
15'
Liam Donnelly
ST Mirren
🟨
26'
Roland Idowu
ST Mirren
🔄
46'
A. Campbell ↔ J. Richardson
ST Mirren
🔄
46'
M. O'Hara ↔ J. Young
ST Mirren
🔄
46'
N. Clescenco ↔ D. Watson
Kilmarnock
46'
F. Curtis · Assist: G. Kiltie
Kilmarnock
🟨
52'
Joe Hugill
Kilmarnock
🟨
54'
Killian Phillips
ST Mirren
🔄
54'
M. Schjonning-Larsen ↔ L. Mayo
Kilmarnock
68'
F. Curtis · Assist: T. Lowery
Kilmarnock
🔄
69'
↔ R. King
ST Mirren
🔄
74'
R. Idowu ↔ L. Douglas
ST Mirren
🔄
79'
G. Kiltie ↔ R. McKenzie
Kilmarnock
🔄
79'
J. Hugill ↔ B. Anderson
Kilmarnock
🔄
87'
F. Curtis ↔ K. Magennis
Kilmarnock

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 69.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 46.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 43.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
69.5%
-
BTTS BTTS No
46.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
43.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
ST Mirren Win 69.5%
Draw 30.5%
Kilmarnock Win 0%
Expected Goals (xG)
ST Mirren1.22
Kilmarnock1.27
Recent Form (Last 5)
ST Mirren ST Mirren
WWDLW
27 GF / 51 GA
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock
WLDWL
40 GF / 66 GA
Key Stats
0.77
Average Goals Scored
1.14
1.46
Average Goals Conceded
1.89
13
BTTS Yes
19
11
Over 2.5
22
3.51
Shots on Goal
3.83

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

ST Mirren ST Mirren 35 matches
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock 35 matches
ST Mirren Statistic Kilmarnock
7 Wins 7
9 Draws 10
19 Losses 18
27 Goals For 40
51 Goals Against 66
0.77 Avg Goals Scored 1.14
1.46 Avg Goals Conceded 1.89
13 BTTS Yes 19
23 Over 1.5 29
11 Over 2.5 22
6 Over 3.5 14
8 Clean Sheets 8
17 Failed To Score 10
3.51 Shots On Goal 3.83
11.8 Total Shots 11.09
5.66 Corners 4.37
46% Ball Possession 42.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with ST Mirren expected to line up in 3-4-1-2 and Kilmarnock in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Kilmarnock having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. ST Mirren have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Kilmarnock. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

ST Mirren Analysis

ST Mirren sit 5 with 30 points after 35 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 7 wins, 9 draws, and 19 losses, together with goals at 27:51, reflects mixed form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through Alexander Gogić (4 goals), M. Freckleton (4 goals), M. Mandron (4 goals), with creative support from D. John (5 assists), M. Mandron (4 assists), S. Tanser (4 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Kilmarnock Analysis

Kilmarnock come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 4 with 31 points from 35 matches. Their overall return of 7 wins, 10 draws, and 18 losses with goals at 40:66 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Tyreece John-Jules (8 goals), Bruce Anderson (4 goals), G. Kiltie (4 goals), with creative support from G. Kiltie (5 assists), Tyreece John-Jules (2 assists), Bruce Anderson (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 1 wins, 6 draws, and 10 losses fits a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, ST Mirren won 1 times, Kilmarnock won 8 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:26 from ST Mirren's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (100%)
Predicted formations: ST Mirren 3-4-1-2 / Kilmarnock 4-4-2
H2H summary: ST Mirren wins 1, draws 6, Kilmarnock wins 8
Stats
ST Mirren ST Mirren
Kilmarnock Kilmarnock
Shots on Goal
2
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
7
Blocked Shots
4
1 Corner Kicks 4
11 Fouls 11
0 Offsides 1
59% Ball Possession 41%
12 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Goal 4
3 Shots off Goal 2
7 Blocked Shots 4
7 Shots insidebox 7
5 Shots outsidebox 3
2 Goalkeeper Saves 2
616 Total passes 427
527 Passes accurate 344
0.78 expected_goals 1.15
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

ST Mirren
Formation
Kilmarnock
R. Sinclair
R. Sinclair
M. Fraser
M. Fraser
L. Donnelly
L. Donnelly
M. Freckleton
M. Freckleton
M. O'Hara
M. O'Hara
J. Devaney
J. Devaney
A. Campbell
A. Campbell
C. McMenamin
C. McMenamin
R. Idowu
R. Idowu
M. Mandron
M. Mandron
K. Phillips
K. Phillips
M. Stryjek
M. Stryjek
M. Schjonning-Larsen
M. Schjonning-Larsen
G. Stanger
G. Stanger
R. Deas
R. Deas
D. Thompson
D. Thompson
G. Kiltie
🎯
G. Kiltie
A. Tshibola
A. Tshibola
T. Lowery
🎯
T. Lowery
F. Curtis
⚽ 2
F. Curtis
J. Hugill
J. Hugill
N. Clescenco
N. Clescenco
ST Mirren 3-4-3
Starting XI
27
R. Sinclair
G
22
M. Fraser
D
4
L. Donnelly
🟨 15'
D
21
M. Freckleton
⚽ 9'
D
6
M. O'Hara
↓ 46'
8
J. Devaney
M
16
A. Campbell
↓ 46'
M
10
C. McMenamin
↓ 14'
M
7
R. Idowu
↓ 74' 🟨 26'
F
9
M. Mandron
F
88
K. Phillips
🟨 54'
F
Substitutes
35
G. Tamosevicius
G
2
J. Richardson
↑ 46'
D
20
J. Young
↑ 46'
F
5
R. King
↑ 69'
D
17
J. Calvin
F
32
L. Douglas
↑ 74'
F
3
S. Tanser
↑ 14'
D
38
T. Falconer
41
R. Duff
F
Kilmarnock 4-3-3
Starting XI
1
M. Stryjek
G
21
M. Schjonning-Larsen
↓ 54'
D
14
G. Stanger
D
6
R. Deas
D
3
D. Thompson
D
11
G. Kiltie
🎯 46' ↓ 79'
M
36
A. Tshibola
M
18
T. Lowery
🎯 68'
M
52
F. Curtis
⚽ 46' ⚽ 68' ↓ 87'
F
44
J. Hugill
↓ 79' 🟨 52'
F
20
N. Clescenco
↓ 46'
F
Substitutes
30
K. Wright
G
7
R. McKenzie
↑ 79'
M
31
L. Polworth
M
16
K. Magennis
↑ 87'
M
19
B. Anderson
↑ 79'
F
5
L. Mayo
↑ 54'
D
4
Z. Williams
D
23
M. Watkins
F
12
D. Watson
↑ 46'
M
Last matches: ST Mirren
27.06.26
Fri
ST Mirren
Arbroath
4
2
W
25.05.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Partick
1
0
W
21.05.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Partick
1
1
D
17.05.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Dundee Utd
1
1
D
12.05.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Aberdeen
2
0
W
02.05.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Dundee
0
1
L
25.04.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Livingston
0
2
L
11.04.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Celtic
0
1
L
04.04.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Aberdeen
2
0
W
21.03.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Falkirk
2
1
W
15.03.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Rangers
0
1
L
03.03.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Dundee Utd
1
2
L
28.02.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Livingston
1
1
D
21.02.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Motherwell
0
5
L
14.02.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Hibernian
0
2
L
11.02.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Kilmarnock
3
4
L
03.02.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Heart Of Midlothian
1
0
W
31.01.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Dundee
0
0
D
20.01.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Livingston
1
1
D
14.01.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Heart Of Midlothian
0
2
L
Last matches: Kilmarnock
04.07.26
Fri
Kilmarnock
Linfield
3
2
W
01.07.26
Fri
Kilmarnock
Glentoran
4
0
W
17.05.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Livingston
4
1
W
12.05.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee
3
1
W
02.05.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
3
0
W
25.04.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Aberdeen
0
1
L
11.04.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee
2
2
D
04.04.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Hibernian
0
3
L
21.03.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Livingston
2
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Heart Of Midlothian
1
0
W
28.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Falkirk
1
5
L
21.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
1
1
D
15.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Celtic
2
3
L
11.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
4
3
W
04.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Rangers
1
5
L
31.01.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Aberdeen
3
0
W
24.01.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Motherwell
0
4
L
10.01.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Livingston
1
1
D
03.01.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Hibernian
1
3
L
30.12.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee
1
2
L
H2H: ST Mirren vs Kilmarnock
09.05.26
H2H
ST Mirren
Kilmarnock
0
3
L
11.02.26
H2H
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
4
3
L
27.12.25
H2H
ST Mirren
Kilmarnock
0
0
D
04.10.25
H2H
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
2
0
L
19.09.25
H2H
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
2
2
D
29.03.25
H2H
ST Mirren
Kilmarnock
5
1
W
02.01.25
H2H
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
2
0
L
14.09.24
H2H
ST Mirren
Kilmarnock
2
2
D
11.05.24
H2H
ST Mirren
Kilmarnock
0
1
L
16.03.24
H2H
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
5
2
L
27.12.23
H2H
ST Mirren
Kilmarnock
0
1
L
30.09.23
H2H
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
1
1
D
22.04.23
H2H
ST Mirren
Kilmarnock
0
2
L
02.01.23
H2H
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
0
0
D
15.10.22
H2H
ST Mirren
Kilmarnock
0
0
D
Last matches: ST Mirren
25.05.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Partick
1
0
W
17.05.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Dundee Utd
1
1
D
25.04.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Livingston
0
2
L
04.04.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Aberdeen
2
0
W
15.03.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Rangers
0
1
L
21.02.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Motherwell
0
5
L
03.02.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Heart Of Midlothian
1
0
W
31.01.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Dundee
0
0
D
10.01.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Falkirk
0
2
L
27.12.25
Pre
ST Mirren
Kilmarnock
0
0
D
20.12.25
Pre
ST Mirren
Livingston
1
0
W
06.12.25
Pre
ST Mirren
Dundee Utd
2
0
W
22.11.25
Pre
ST Mirren
Celtic
0
1
L
08.11.25
Pre
ST Mirren
Hibernian
0
3
L
29.10.25
Pre
ST Mirren
Heart Of Midlothian
2
2
D
18.10.25
Pre
ST Mirren
Aberdeen
0
1
L
27.09.25
Pre
ST Mirren
Dundee
1
0
W
24.08.25
Pre
ST Mirren
Rangers
1
1
D
09.08.25
Pre
ST Mirren
Motherwell
0
0
D
H2H at home: ST Mirren
09.05.26
H2H
ST Mirren
Kilmarnock
0
3
L
27.12.25
H2H
ST Mirren
Kilmarnock
0
0
D
29.03.25
H2H
ST Mirren
Kilmarnock
5
1
W
14.09.24
H2H
ST Mirren
Kilmarnock
2
2
D
11.05.24
H2H
ST Mirren
Kilmarnock
0
1
L
27.12.23
H2H
ST Mirren
Kilmarnock
0
1
L
22.04.23
H2H
ST Mirren
Kilmarnock
0
2
L
15.10.22
H2H
ST Mirren
Kilmarnock
0
0
D
Last matches: Kilmarnock
04.07.26
Fri
Kilmarnock
Linfield
3
2
W
01.07.26
Fri
Kilmarnock
Glentoran
4
0
W
17.05.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Livingston
4
1
W
25.04.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Aberdeen
0
1
L
04.04.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Hibernian
0
3
L
28.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Falkirk
1
5
L
21.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
1
1
D
04.02.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Rangers
1
5
L
24.01.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Motherwell
0
4
L
10.01.26
Pre
Kilmarnock
Livingston
1
1
D
30.12.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee
1
2
L
27.12.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
ST Mirren
0
0
D
14.12.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Aberdeen
1
2
L
03.12.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Heart Of Midlothian
1
1
D
09.11.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Celtic
0
4
L
01.11.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Falkirk
1
3
L
26.10.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Rangers
1
3
L
27.09.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Dundee Utd
2
0
W
30.08.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Motherwell
2
2
D
10.08.25
Pre
Kilmarnock
Hibernian
2
2
D
H2H away: Kilmarnock
09.05.26
H2H
ST Mirren
Kilmarnock
0
3
W
27.12.25
H2H
ST Mirren
Kilmarnock
0
0
D
29.03.25
H2H
ST Mirren
Kilmarnock
5
1
L
14.09.24
H2H
ST Mirren
Kilmarnock
2
2
D
11.05.24
H2H
ST Mirren
Kilmarnock
0
1
W
27.12.23
H2H
ST Mirren
Kilmarnock
0
1
W
22.04.23
H2H
ST Mirren
Kilmarnock
0
2
W
15.10.22
H2H
ST Mirren
Kilmarnock
0
0
D

Standings

Premiership
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 33 21 7 5 58:28 30 70
L W D W W
2 33 19 12 2 66:31 35 69
W L L L L
3 33 21 4 8 59:35 24 67
W W W W W
4 33 14 12 7 52:29 23 54
W L D L W
5 33 13 12 8 51:37 14 51
L W W L L
6 33 13 7 13 45:48 -3 46
L L L W L
7 33 9 13 11 45:54 -9 40
D D L L W
8 33 9 6 18 33:48 -15 33
L L W D W
9 33 8 9 16 34:53 -19 33
W L W W L
10 33 7 9 17 27:48 -21 30
W D D W L
11 33 6 10 17 37:65 -28 28
W W W W L
12 33 1 13 19 35:66 -31 16
L D L D W
Championship round
Relegation Round