SCOTLAND PREMIERSHIP
--.--.---- --:--
The SMISA Stadium
Referee: S. McLean
ST Mirren
Match Timeline
Dundee Utd
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
20'
Sam Cleall-Harding
Dundee Utd
27'
Z. Sapsford · Assist: M. Watters
Dundee Utd
🔄
46'
M. O'Hara ↔ J. Devaney
ST Mirren
🔄
46'
M. Freckleton ↔ T. Falconer
ST Mirren
🔄
59'
M. Watters ↔ J. Russell
Dundee Utd
🔄
59'
S. Cleall-Harding ↔ J. Eskesen
Dundee Utd
🟨
60'
Ryan Strain
Dundee Utd
🔄
66'
M. Fraser ↔ R. King
ST Mirren
🔄
66'
S. Tanser ↔ J. Calvin
ST Mirren
🔄
66'
R. Strain ↔ S. Constable
Dundee Utd
69'
J. Young · Assist: R. King
ST Mirren
🔄
74'
C. Sibbald ↔ B. Esselink
Dundee Utd
🔄
74'
Z. Sapsford ↔ O. Stirton
Dundee Utd
🔄
85'
L. Douglas ↔ C. McMillan
ST Mirren

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Draw or Away
Probability 80.3%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 46.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 30.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Draw or Away
80.3%
-
BTTS BTTS No
46.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
30.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
ST Mirren Win 19.8%
Draw 37%
Dundee Utd Win 43.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
ST Mirren1.08
Dundee Utd1.38
Recent Form (Last 5)
ST Mirren ST Mirren
WWDLW
29 GF / 54 GA
Dundee Utd Dundee Utd
WLDWL
54 GF / 63 GA
Key Stats
0.78
Average Goals Scored
1.32
1.46
Average Goals Conceded
1.54
13
BTTS Yes
22
12
Over 2.5
21
3.51
Shots on Goal
4.29

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

ST Mirren ST Mirren 37 matches
Dundee Utd Dundee Utd 41 matches
ST Mirren Statistic Dundee Utd
8 Wins 12
9 Draws 16
20 Losses 13
29 Goals For 54
54 Goals Against 63
0.78 Avg Goals Scored 1.32
1.46 Avg Goals Conceded 1.54
13 BTTS Yes 22
25 Over 1.5 35
12 Over 2.5 21
6 Over 3.5 15
9 Clean Sheets 9
18 Failed To Score 13
3.51 Shots On Goal 4.29
11.73 Total Shots 12.71
5.41 Corners 4.32
46.2% Ball Possession 39.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Dundee Utd. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with ST Mirren expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Dundee Utd in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Dundee Utd having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

ST Mirren Analysis

With 30 points from 36 games and a place of 5, ST Mirren still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 7 wins, 9 draws, and 20 defeats, and the 27:54 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on M. Freckleton (5 goals), Alexander Gogić (4 goals), M. Mandron (4 goals), with creative support from D. John (5 assists), M. Mandron (4 assists), S. Tanser (4 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Dundee Utd Analysis

Dundee Utd sit 1 with 43 points after 36 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 10 wins, 13 draws, and 13 defeats, and the 48:59 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on A. Fatah (8 goals), Zachary Sapsford (8 goals), I. Dolcek (5 goals), with creative support from W. Ferry (6 assists), L. Stephenson (5 assists), A. Fatah (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, ST Mirren won 5 times, Dundee Utd won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:16 from ST Mirren's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.29 goals per game.

1X2: Draw or Away
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (80.3%)
Predicted formations: ST Mirren 3-4-3 / Dundee Utd 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: ST Mirren wins 5, draws 2, Dundee Utd wins 7
Stats
ST Mirren ST Mirren
Dundee Utd Dundee Utd
Shots on Goal
8
Shots on Goal
3
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
6
Blocked Shots
0
10 Corner Kicks 2
10 Fouls 10
4 Offsides 2
49% Ball Possession 51%
17 Total Shots 6
8 Shots on Goal 3
3 Shots off Goal 3
6 Blocked Shots 0
10 Shots insidebox 3
7 Shots outsidebox 3
2 Goalkeeper Saves 6
445 Total passes 487
348 Passes accurate 393
1.00 expected_goals 0.36
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

ST Mirren
Formation
Dundee Utd
R. Sinclair
R. Sinclair
M. Fraser
M. Fraser
A. Gogic
A. Gogic
M. Freckleton
M. Freckleton
J. Richardson
J. Richardson
M. O'Hara
M. O'Hara
A. Campbell
A. Campbell
R. Idowu
R. Idowu
S. Tanser
S. Tanser
L. Douglas
L. Douglas
J. Young
J. Young
D. Richards
D. Richards
S. Cleall-Harding
S. Cleall-Harding
R. Graham
R. Graham
K. Keresztes
K. Keresztes
R. Strain
R. Strain
V. Sevelj
V. Sevelj
C. Sibbald
C. Sibbald
P. Camara
P. Camara
K. Gilligan
K. Gilligan
M. Watters
🎯
M. Watters
Z. Sapsford
Z. Sapsford
ST Mirren 3-5-2
Starting XI
27
R. Sinclair
G
22
M. Fraser
↓ 66'
D
13
A. Gogic
D
21
M. Freckleton
↓ 46'
D
2
J. Richardson
M
6
M. O'Hara
↓ 46'
16
A. Campbell
M
7
R. Idowu
M
3
S. Tanser
↓ 66'
M
32
L. Douglas
↓ 85'
F
20
J. Young
⚽ 69'
F
Substitutes
35
G. Tamosevicius
G
9
M. Mandron
F
5
R. King
🎯 69' ↑ 66'
D
17
J. Calvin
↑ 66'
F
8
J. Devaney
↑ 46'
M
4
L. Donnelly
M
88
K. Phillips
M
38
T. Falconer
↑ 46'
40
C. McMillan
↑ 85'
F
Dundee Utd 3-5-2
Starting XI
25
D. Richards
G
37
S. Cleall-Harding
↓ 59' 🟨 20'
D
6
R. Graham
D
23
K. Keresztes
D
2
R. Strain
↓ 66' 🟨 60'
M
5
V. Sevelj
M
14
C. Sibbald
↓ 74'
M
8
P. Camara
M
43
K. Gilligan
M
36
M. Watters
🎯 27' ↓ 59'
F
9
Z. Sapsford
⚽ 27' ↓ 74'
F
Substitutes
31
R. Adams
G
77
J. Russell
↑ 59'
F
3
B. Esselink
↑ 74'
D
10
J. Eskesen
↑ 59'
M
22
D. Naamo
D
39
S. Constable
↑ 66'
M
34
O. Stirton
↑ 74'
D
40
M. Mudie
D
Last matches: ST Mirren
27.06.26
Fri
ST Mirren
Arbroath
4
2
W
25.05.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Partick
1
0
W
21.05.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Partick
1
1
D
12.05.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Aberdeen
2
0
W
09.05.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Kilmarnock
0
3
L
02.05.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Dundee
0
1
L
25.04.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Livingston
0
2
L
11.04.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Celtic
0
1
L
04.04.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Aberdeen
2
0
W
21.03.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Falkirk
2
1
W
15.03.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Rangers
0
1
L
03.03.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Dundee Utd
1
2
L
28.02.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Livingston
1
1
D
21.02.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Motherwell
0
5
L
14.02.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Hibernian
0
2
L
11.02.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Kilmarnock
3
4
L
03.02.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Heart Of Midlothian
1
0
W
31.01.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Dundee
0
0
D
20.01.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Livingston
1
1
D
14.01.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Heart Of Midlothian
0
2
L
Last matches: Dundee Utd
25.07.26
Fri
Dundee Utd
Salford City
2
3
L
12.05.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Livingston
0
0
D
09.05.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Aberdeen
0
2
L
02.05.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Kilmarnock
0
3
L
26.04.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Dundee
3
0
W
11.04.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Livingston
3
2
W
04.04.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Rangers
2
4
L
22.03.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Celtic
2
0
W
15.03.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Dundee
2
2
D
03.03.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
ST Mirren
2
1
W
28.02.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Motherwell
0
2
L
24.02.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Aberdeen
0
0
D
21.02.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Kilmarnock
1
1
D
14.02.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Falkirk
3
2
W
04.02.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Hibernian
2
3
L
31.01.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Heart Of Midlothian
0
3
L
10.01.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Celtic
0
4
L
03.01.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Dundee
0
1
L
30.12.25
Pre
Dundee Utd
Livingston
3
1
W
27.12.25
Pre
Dundee Utd
Aberdeen
1
1
D
H2H: ST Mirren vs Dundee Utd
17.05.26
H2H
ST Mirren
Dundee Utd
1
1
D
03.03.26
H2H
Dundee Utd
ST Mirren
2
1
L
06.12.25
H2H
ST Mirren
Dundee Utd
2
0
W
25.10.25
H2H
Dundee Utd
ST Mirren
3
1
L
10.05.25
H2H
Dundee Utd
ST Mirren
0
2
W
11.01.25
H2H
ST Mirren
Dundee Utd
0
1
L
30.11.24
H2H
Dundee Utd
ST Mirren
2
0
L
05.10.24
H2H
ST Mirren
Dundee Utd
0
1
L
18.08.24
H2H
Dundee Utd
ST Mirren
1
0
L
11.07.23
H2H
Dundee Utd
ST Mirren
0
0
D
18.03.23
H2H
Dundee Utd
ST Mirren
1
1
D
22.10.22
H2H
ST Mirren
Dundee Utd
2
1
W
20.08.22
H2H
Dundee Utd
ST Mirren
0
3
W
19.03.22
H2H
ST Mirren
Dundee Utd
1
2
L
18.01.22
H2H
Dundee Utd
ST Mirren
1
2
W
Last matches: ST Mirren
25.05.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Partick
1
0
W
09.05.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Kilmarnock
0
3
L
25.04.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Livingston
0
2
L
04.04.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Aberdeen
2
0
W
15.03.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Rangers
0
1
L
21.02.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Motherwell
0
5
L
03.02.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Heart Of Midlothian
1
0
W
31.01.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Dundee
0
0
D
10.01.26
Pre
ST Mirren
Falkirk
0
2
L
27.12.25
Pre
ST Mirren
Kilmarnock
0
0
D
20.12.25
Pre
ST Mirren
Livingston
1
0
W
06.12.25
Pre
ST Mirren
Dundee Utd
2
0
W
22.11.25
Pre
ST Mirren
Celtic
0
1
L
08.11.25
Pre
ST Mirren
Hibernian
0
3
L
29.10.25
Pre
ST Mirren
Heart Of Midlothian
2
2
D
18.10.25
Pre
ST Mirren
Aberdeen
0
1
L
27.09.25
Pre
ST Mirren
Dundee
1
0
W
24.08.25
Pre
ST Mirren
Rangers
1
1
D
09.08.25
Pre
ST Mirren
Motherwell
0
0
D
H2H at home: ST Mirren
17.05.26
H2H
ST Mirren
Dundee Utd
1
1
D
06.12.25
H2H
ST Mirren
Dundee Utd
2
0
W
11.01.25
H2H
ST Mirren
Dundee Utd
0
1
L
05.10.24
H2H
ST Mirren
Dundee Utd
0
1
L
22.10.22
H2H
ST Mirren
Dundee Utd
2
1
W
19.03.22
H2H
ST Mirren
Dundee Utd
1
2
L
Last matches: Dundee Utd
25.07.26
Fri
Dundee Utd
Salford City
2
3
L
09.05.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Aberdeen
0
2
L
02.05.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Kilmarnock
0
3
L
04.04.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Rangers
2
4
L
15.03.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Dundee
2
2
D
28.02.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Motherwell
0
2
L
14.02.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Falkirk
3
2
W
04.02.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Hibernian
2
3
L
10.01.26
Pre
Dundee Utd
Celtic
0
4
L
30.12.25
Pre
Dundee Utd
Livingston
3
1
W
27.12.25
Pre
Dundee Utd
Aberdeen
1
1
D
06.12.25
Pre
Dundee Utd
ST Mirren
0
2
L
29.11.25
Pre
Dundee Utd
Kilmarnock
1
1
D
09.11.25
Pre
Dundee Utd
Heart Of Midlothian
1
1
D
29.10.25
Pre
Dundee Utd
Motherwell
0
2
L
18.10.25
Pre
Dundee Utd
Rangers
2
2
D
13.09.25
Pre
Dundee Utd
Hibernian
3
3
D
31.08.25
Pre
Dundee Utd
Dundee
2
0
W
07.08.25
UEF
Dundee Utd
Rapid Vienna
2
2
D
03.08.25
Pre
Dundee Utd
Falkirk
2
2
D
H2H away: Dundee Utd
17.05.26
H2H
ST Mirren
Dundee Utd
1
1
D
06.12.25
H2H
ST Mirren
Dundee Utd
2
0
L
11.01.25
H2H
ST Mirren
Dundee Utd
0
1
W
05.10.24
H2H
ST Mirren
Dundee Utd
0
1
W
22.10.22
H2H
ST Mirren
Dundee Utd
2
1
L
19.03.22
H2H
ST Mirren
Dundee Utd
1
2
W

Standings

Premiership
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 33 21 7 5 58:28 30 70
L W D W W
2 33 19 12 2 66:31 35 69
W L L L L
3 33 21 4 8 59:35 24 67
W W W W W
4 33 14 12 7 52:29 23 54
W L D L W
5 33 13 12 8 51:37 14 51
L W W L L
6 33 13 7 13 45:48 -3 46
L L L W L
7 33 9 13 11 45:54 -9 40
D D L L W
8 33 9 6 18 33:48 -15 33
L L W D W
9 33 8 9 16 34:53 -19 33
W L W W L
10 33 7 9 17 27:48 -21 30
W D D W L
11 33 6 10 17 37:65 -28 28
W W W W L
12 33 1 13 19 35:66 -31 16
L D L D W
Championship round
Relegation Round