🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
20.09.2026 00:30
CITYPARK

St. Louis City vs Toronto FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 70.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
70.1%
-
BTTS Yes
88%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
76%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
St. Louis City Win 70.1%
Draw 4.9%
Toronto FC Win 25.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
St. Louis City1.63
Toronto FC1.55
Recent Form (Last 5)
St. Louis City St. Louis City
WWDLW
46 GF / 43 GA
Toronto FC Toronto FC
WLDWL
48 GF / 51 GA
Key Stats
1.59
Average Goals Scored
1.6
1.48
Average Goals Conceded
1.7
20
BTTS Yes
23
16
Over 2.5
20
4.68
Shots on Goal
4.52

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

St. Louis City St. Louis City 29 matches
Toronto FC Toronto FC 30 matches
St. Louis City Statistic Toronto FC
12 Wins 9
9 Draws 12
8 Losses 9
46 Goals For 48
43 Goals Against 51
1.59 Avg Goals Scored 1.6
1.48 Avg Goals Conceded 1.7
20 BTTS Yes 23
25 Over 1.5 26
16 Over 2.5 20
12 Over 3.5 10
4 Clean Sheets 4
5 Failed To Score 5
4.68 Shots On Goal 4.52
13.6 Total Shots 12.2
5.52 Corners 5
51.7% Ball Possession 45.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features St. Louis City's more proactive style and Toronto FC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Toronto FC. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with St. Louis City expected to line up in 3-1-4-2 and Toronto FC in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Toronto FC having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

St. Louis City Analysis

So far, St. Louis City have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 38 points from 24 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 10 wins, 8 draws, and 6 losses, while the 38:33 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on S. Becher (3 goals), Marcel Hartel (3 goals), T. Totland (2 goals), with creative support from S. Becher (3 assists), Marcel Hartel (3 assists), T. Totland (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Toronto FC Analysis

From their first 24 matches, Toronto FC have collected 29 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. Their overall return of 6 wins, 11 draws, and 7 losses with goals at 38:43 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by J. Sargent (5 goals), D. Sallói (4 goals), Emilio Aristizábal Chavarriaga (4 goals), with creative support from D. Sallói (4 assists), K. Franklin (2 assists), T. Corbeanu (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, St. Louis City won 1 times, Toronto FC won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:0 from St. Louis City's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 0 matches, with an average of 1 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.2%)
Predicted formations: St. Louis City 3-1-4-2 / Toronto FC 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: St. Louis City wins 1, draws 0, Toronto FC wins 0

Standings

Western Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 24 14 4 6 53:23 30 46
L W L W W
2 25 13 4 8 32:28 4 43
L W D D L
3 25 12 7 6 49:42 7 43
W W W D L
4 25 12 5 8 44:36 8 41
W W D D L
5 25 11 8 6 42:35 7 41
W D W D W
6 26 11 7 8 41:27 14 40
L W D D D
7 25 11 2 12 33:32 1 35
W D L W L
8 25 9 5 11 47:47 0 32
L D W L D
9 24 8 6 10 42:37 5 30
L L W W L
10 26 7 9 10 31:40 -9 30
D L W L D
11 24 8 5 11 37:39 -2 29
L L D L L
12 25 7 8 10 37:43 -6 29
L L L D W
13 25 7 8 10 32:44 -12 29
W D D W D
14 23 7 7 9 25:30 -5 28
D D D D L
15 24 5 3 16 26:59 -33 18
W L L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)