🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
--.--.---- --:--
CITYPARK
Referee: A. Chapman
St. Louis City
Match Timeline
Sporting Kansas City
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
28'
S. Jeong
St. Louis City
36'
M. Hartel · Assist: S. Becher
St. Louis City
42'
Capita
Sporting Kansas City
🔄
46'
C. Wallem ↔ Rafael Santos
St. Louis City
🔄
46'
J. Reid ↔ E. Karic
Sporting Kansas City
🔄
46'
I. James ↔ J. Davis
Sporting Kansas City
🔄
64'
S. Jeong ↔ M. Perez
St. Louis City
🔄
75'
O. Blorian ↔ E. Bartlow
Sporting Kansas City
🔄
76'
Z. Bassong ↔ K. Agyabeng
Sporting Kansas City
76'
D. Joveljic · Assist: M. Garcia
Sporting Kansas City
🟨
78'
Capita
Sporting Kansas City
VAR
82'
Simon Becher
St. Louis City
🔄
85'
Capita ↔ S. Afrifa
Sporting Kansas City
85'
E. Lowen
St. Louis City
🔄
88'
T. Totland ↔ J. Orozco
St. Louis City
🔄
88'
E. Lowen ↔ T. Ostrak
St. Louis City
🟨
90+7'
Daniel Edelman
St. Louis City
🟨
90'
Benjamin Lundt
St. Louis City
🔄
90+6'
S. Becher ↔ P. Ault
St. Louis City

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 83.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 70%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 70.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
83.5%
-
BTTS Yes
70%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
70.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
91.7%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
St. Louis City Win 83.5%
Draw 6.8%
Sporting Kansas City Win 9.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
St. Louis City1.51
Sporting Kansas City1.19
Recent Form (Last 5)
St. Louis City St. Louis City
WWDLW
20 GF / 28 GA
Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City
WLDWL
19 GF / 42 GA
Key Stats
1.11
Average Goals Scored
0.95
1.56
Average Goals Conceded
2.1
10
BTTS Yes
10
8
Over 2.5
14
4.29
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

St. Louis City St. Louis City 18 matches
Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 20 matches
St. Louis City Statistic Sporting Kansas City
5 Wins 6
5 Draws 2
8 Losses 12
20 Goals For 19
28 Goals Against 42
1.11 Avg Goals Scored 0.95
1.56 Avg Goals Conceded 2.1
10 BTTS Yes 10
15 Over 1.5 16
8 Over 2.5 14
5 Over 3.5 7
3 Clean Sheets 2
5 Failed To Score 8
4.29 Shots On Goal 4
13.57 Total Shots 9.29
5.93 Corners 3.64
49.3% Ball Possession 44.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. St. Louis City appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Sporting Kansas City. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with St. Louis City expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Sporting Kansas City in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sporting Kansas City having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Sporting Kansas City. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

St. Louis City Analysis

St. Louis City are currently 12 in the standings with 16 points from 14 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, while the 16:20 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on M. Hartel (3 goals), Christopher Durkin (2 goals), B. McSorley (1 goals), with creative support from S. Becher (3 assists), D. Edelman (2 assists), E. Lowen (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach. They also have disciplinary concerns to manage, with R. Burki, J. Orozco, C. Durkin unavailable.

Sporting Kansas City Analysis

Sporting Kansas City approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 11 points from 14 matches. Their record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 14:36, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through D. Joveljic (6 goals), C. Harris (2 goals), Capita (1 goals), with creative support from C. Harris (3 assists), M. Garcia (3 assists), S. Afrifa (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 2 wins, 0 draws, and 5 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach. They are not at full strength, with J. Miller, K. Agyabeng, M. Mosquera unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, St. Louis City won 4 times, Sporting Kansas City won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:21 from St. Louis City's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 10 matches, with an average of 3.75 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.2%)
Predicted formations: St. Louis City 3-4-3 / Sporting Kansas City 4-4-2
Missing players: St. Louis City 7, Sporting Kansas City 5
H2H summary: St. Louis City wins 4, draws 4, Sporting Kansas City wins 4

Standings

Western Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 13 4 4 48:18 30 43
W W L W D
2 22 12 3 7 30:26 4 39
D L W W W
3 23 10 6 7 36:22 14 36
D D L L D
4 22 10 4 8 39:33 6 34
D L L L L
5 22 9 7 6 41:37 4 34
D L W W D
6 22 9 7 6 33:30 3 34
D W D W D
7 22 10 1 11 31:28 3 31
W L W W W
8 22 8 6 8 40:33 7 30
W W L W D
9 22 7 8 7 30:32 -2 29
D W L D D
10 21 8 4 9 34:33 1 28
L L L D D
11 22 8 4 10 39:39 0 28
L D W L W
12 21 7 5 9 24:29 -5 26
D D L L L
13 23 6 8 9 28:35 -7 26
L D W L D
14 22 6 6 10 28:41 -13 24
W D W L L
15 22 4 3 15 20:54 -34 15
L L D L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)