🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
23.08.2026 00:30
CITYPARK
Referee: A. Da Silva
St. Louis City
Match Timeline
Houston Dynamo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
23'
S. Becher · Assist: A. Matan
St. Louis City
🟨
27'
Alexandru Mățan
St. Louis City
🔄
46'
M. Saracchi ↔ Felipe Andrade
Houston Dynamo
🔄
57'
D. Samassekou ↔ H. Herrera
Houston Dynamo
🔄
57'
D. McGuire ↔ I. Aliyu
Houston Dynamo
🟨
58'
Agustín Bouzat
Houston Dynamo
🟨
58'
Mateusz Bogusz
Houston Dynamo
🔄
62'
T. Ostrak ↔ C. Holse
St. Louis City
🟨
63'
Simon Becher
St. Louis City
VAR
66'
Mateusz Bogusz
Houston Dynamo
🟨
70'
Carlo Holse
St. Louis City
🔄
72'
A. Matan ↔ L. MacNaughton
St. Louis City
🔄
72'
S. Jeong ↔ P. Ault
St. Louis City
75'
I. Aliyu
Houston Dynamo
🟨
81'
Lucas Halter
Houston Dynamo
85'
D. Polvara
St. Louis City
🔄
87'
A. Bouzat ↔ F. Negri
Houston Dynamo
🟨
90+7'
Tomas Totland
St. Louis City
🔄
90+2'
S. Becher ↔ M. Perez
St. Louis City
🔄
90+2'
L. Ennali ↔ D. Holmes
Houston Dynamo

St. Louis City vs Houston Dynamo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 93.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
93.6%
-
BTTS Yes
54.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
St. Louis City Win 49.4%
Draw 6.4%
Houston Dynamo Win 44.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
St. Louis City1.27
Houston Dynamo1.6
Recent Form (Last 5)
St. Louis City St. Louis City
WWDLW
32 GF / 34 GA
Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo
WLDWL
50 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
1.72
1.42
Average Goals Conceded
1.17
15
BTTS Yes
14
11
Over 2.5
13
4.5
Shots on Goal
4.75

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

St. Louis City St. Louis City 24 matches
Houston Dynamo Houston Dynamo 29 matches
St. Louis City Statistic Houston Dynamo
9 Wins 19
7 Draws 4
8 Losses 6
32 Goals For 50
34 Goals Against 34
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 1.72
1.42 Avg Goals Conceded 1.17
15 BTTS Yes 14
20 Over 1.5 22
11 Over 2.5 13
8 Over 3.5 7
4 Clean Sheets 11
5 Failed To Score 4
4.5 Shots On Goal 4.75
14.3 Total Shots 12.95
6.05 Corners 4.15
51.3% Ball Possession 46.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Houston Dynamo's more proactive style and St. Louis City's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Houston Dynamo. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. St. Louis City come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with St. Louis City expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Houston Dynamo in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Houston Dynamo having the stronger overall control.

St. Louis City Analysis

From their first 18 matches, St. Louis City have collected 26 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. The record of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 6 defeats, together with a 24:24 goal balance, points toward very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking threat comes through Marcel Hartel (3 goals), Eduard Löwen (2 goals), Jeong Sang-bin (2 goals), with creative support from Marcel Hartel (3 assists), Simon Becher (3 assists), Tomas Totland (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Houston Dynamo Analysis

Houston Dynamo approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 4 on 32 points after 18 outings. They have recorded 10 wins, 2 draws, and 6 losses, with a 27:24 goal return and good form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on Guilherme (6 goals), Mateusz Bogusz (3 goals), Lawrence Ennali (2 goals), with creative support from Guilherme (2 assists), Lawrence Ennali (2 assists), Jack McGlynn (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split of 4 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses supports the view of a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, St. Louis City won 4 times, Houston Dynamo won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:10 from St. Louis City's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.5 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.6%)
Predicted formations: St. Louis City 3-4-2-1 / Houston Dynamo 4-2-3-1
Missing players: St. Louis City 4, Houston Dynamo 4
H2H summary: St. Louis City wins 4, draws 3, Houston Dynamo wins 3

Standings

Western Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 15 4 6 56:23 33 49
W L W L W
2 26 13 5 8 34:30 4 44
D L W D D
3 26 12 8 6 45:36 9 44
W W D W D
4 26 12 8 6 49:42 7 44
D W W W D
5 26 12 6 8 46:38 8 42
D W W D D
6 27 11 8 8 43:29 14 41
D L W D D
7 26 11 3 12 36:35 1 36
D W D L W
8 27 8 9 10 34:42 -8 33
W D L W L
9 26 9 5 12 47:48 -1 32
L L D W L
10 25 8 6 11 42:42 0 30
L L L W W
11 26 7 9 10 32:44 -12 30
D W D D W
12 25 8 5 12 37:42 -5 29
L L L D L
13 24 7 8 9 28:33 -5 29
D D D D D
14 26 7 8 11 39:46 -7 29
L L L L D
15 25 5 3 17 29:63 -34 18
L W L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)