06.09.2026 21:30
Estadio Luis Alberto Salinas Tanasio
Referee: D. Ojeda
Sportivo Luqueno
Match Timeline
Sportivo Ameliano
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
35'
C. Ocampos · Assist: J. Gonzalez
Sportivo Ameliano
🟨
44'
Walter Rodríguez
Sportivo Ameliano
🔄
46'
S. Maldonado ↔ A. Maiz
Sportivo Luqueno
52'
C. Ocampos
Sportivo Ameliano
🔄
61'
M. Ojeda ↔ S. Ocampos
Sportivo Luqueno
🔄
69'
O. Ruiz ↔ W. Gonzalez
Sportivo Luqueno
🔄
69'
W. Rodriguez ↔ J. Benitez
Sportivo Ameliano
🔄
69'
L. Ayala ↔ L. Ortiz
Sportivo Ameliano
VAR
78'
Walter González
Sportivo Luqueno
🟨
78'
Julio Gonzalez
Sportivo Ameliano
🔄
80'
R. Peralta ↔ P. Aranda
Sportivo Ameliano
🔄
80'
E. Paez ↔ L. Bruno
Sportivo Ameliano
80'
G. Bogado
Sportivo Luqueno
🔄
84'
R. Cabral ↔ E. Moreira
Sportivo Ameliano

Sportivo Luqueno vs Sportivo Ameliano Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Draw
Probability 36.5%
Odds 3.31
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 2.03
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Draw
36.5%
3.31
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.80
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
2.03
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
86.8%
1.20
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
5.50
Correct Score 2-2
-
15.00
Probability Distribution
Sportivo Luqueno Win 31.8%
Draw 36.5%
Sportivo Ameliano Win 31.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sportivo Luqueno1.09
Sportivo Ameliano1.36
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sportivo Luqueno Sportivo Luqueno
WWDLW
34 GF / 48 GA
Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano
WLDWL
36 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.13
Average Goals Scored
1.2
1.6
Average Goals Conceded
1.03
19
BTTS Yes
19
18
Over 2.5
11
3.7
Shots on Goal
3.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sportivo Luqueno Sportivo Luqueno 30 matches
Sportivo Ameliano Sportivo Ameliano 30 matches
Sportivo Luqueno Statistic Sportivo Ameliano
8 Wins 10
6 Draws 13
16 Losses 7
34 Goals For 36
48 Goals Against 31
1.13 Avg Goals Scored 1.2
1.6 Avg Goals Conceded 1.03
19 BTTS Yes 19
24 Over 1.5 22
18 Over 2.5 11
7 Over 3.5 4
3 Clean Sheets 6
10 Failed To Score 6
3.7 Shots On Goal 3.67
10.57 Total Shots 11.7
3.43 Corners 4
43.7% Ball Possession 50.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and Sportivo Ameliano's more proactive style and Sportivo Luqueno's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Sportivo Luqueno have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sportivo Luqueno expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Sportivo Ameliano in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Sportivo Ameliano having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Sportivo Ameliano.

Sportivo Luqueno Analysis

With 9 points from 7 games and a place of 6, Sportivo Luqueno still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 3 wins, 0 draws, and 4 defeats, and the 8:13 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Lucas Morales (1 goals), Marcelo Ojeda (1 goals), Aldo Maiz (1 goals), with creative support from Lucas Morales (1 assists), Marcelo Ojeda (1 assists), Aldo Maiz (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Sportivo Ameliano Analysis

So far, Sportivo Ameliano have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 9 points from 6 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, while the 8:6 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Estivel Moreira (2 goals), Raúl Cabral (1 goals), Richard Torales (1 goals), with creative support from Fabián Franco (1 assists), Carlos Favero (1 assists), Bruno López (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Sportivo Luqueno won 4 times, Sportivo Ameliano won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:17 from Sportivo Luqueno's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.13 goals per game.

1X2: Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (68.3%)
Predicted formations: Sportivo Luqueno 4-4-2 / Sportivo Ameliano 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Sportivo Luqueno wins 4, draws 5, Sportivo Ameliano wins 6

Standings

Primera Division: Clausura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 7 2 2 19:12 7 23
D W W L D
2 11 7 1 3 20:9 11 22
W W W D W
3 11 6 3 2 18:6 12 21
W W L W W
4 11 6 3 2 12:11 1 21
L L W D W
5 11 5 2 4 18:10 8 17
L W L W L
6 11 4 5 2 12:9 3 17
W D W D D
7 11 4 5 2 13:12 1 17
D W W L D
8 11 5 2 4 14:10 4 17
W D W W D
9 11 4 1 6 12:20 -8 13
W L L D W
10 11 2 2 7 11:21 -10 8
L L L W L
11 11 2 1 8 13:24 -11 7
L L L L L
12 11 0 1 10 3:21 -18 1
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)