20.09.2026 21:30
Estadio Feliciano Cáceres
Referee: Derlis Lopez

Sportivo Luqueno vs Deportivo Recoleta Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Draw
Probability 40.3%
Odds 3.57
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.9%
Odds 1.67
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds 1.82
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Draw
40.3%
3.57
BTTS Yes
78.9%
1.67
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
1.82
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
79.8%
1.83
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
5.50
Correct Score 2-2
-
13.00
Probability Distribution
Sportivo Luqueno Win 33.1%
Draw 40.3%
Deportivo Recoleta Win 26.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sportivo Luqueno1.34
Deportivo Recoleta1.56
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sportivo Luqueno Sportivo Luqueno
WWDLW
35 GF / 53 GA
Deportivo Recoleta Deportivo Recoleta
WLDWL
48 GF / 55 GA
Key Stats
1.09
Average Goals Scored
1.5
1.66
Average Goals Conceded
1.72
20
BTTS Yes
24
20
Over 2.5
22
3.81
Shots on Goal
3.59

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sportivo Luqueno Sportivo Luqueno 32 matches
Deportivo Recoleta Deportivo Recoleta 32 matches
Sportivo Luqueno Statistic Deportivo Recoleta
8 Wins 10
6 Draws 5
18 Losses 17
35 Goals For 48
53 Goals Against 55
1.09 Avg Goals Scored 1.5
1.66 Avg Goals Conceded 1.72
20 BTTS Yes 24
26 Over 1.5 28
20 Over 2.5 22
7 Over 3.5 13
3 Clean Sheets 4
11 Failed To Score 4
3.81 Shots On Goal 3.59
10.66 Total Shots 10.28
3.47 Corners 3.56
43.8% Ball Possession 47.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Deportivo Recoleta. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sportivo Luqueno expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Deportivo Recoleta in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Deportivo Recoleta having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Sportivo Luqueno Analysis

Sportivo Luqueno approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 9 with 10 points from 9 matches. Their record of 3 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 11:17, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through G. Bogado (1 goals), L. Morales (1 goals), A. Maíz (1 goals), with creative support from G. Bogado (1 assists), L. Morales (1 assists), A. Maíz (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Deportivo Recoleta Analysis

Deportivo Recoleta sit 11 with 7 points after 9 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 6 defeats with a 12:20 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on P. Charpentier (2 goals), H. López (2 goals), W. Báez (1 goals), with creative support from W. Báez (2 assists), P. Charpentier (1 assists), A. González (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Sportivo Luqueno won 4 times, Deportivo Recoleta won 0 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:4 from Sportivo Luqueno's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (73.4%)
Predicted formations: Sportivo Luqueno 4-1-4-1 / Deportivo Recoleta 4-4-2
H2H summary: Sportivo Luqueno wins 4, draws 2, Deportivo Recoleta wins 0

Standings

Primera Division: Clausura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 11 7 2 2 19:12 7 23
D W W L D
2 11 6 3 2 18:6 12 21
W W L W W
3 11 6 3 2 12:11 1 21
L L W D W
4 10 6 1 3 17:9 8 19
W W D W W
5 11 4 5 2 12:9 3 17
W D W D D
6 11 5 2 4 18:10 8 17
L W L W L
7 11 4 5 2 13:12 1 17
D W W L D
8 10 4 2 4 13:10 3 14
D W W D L
9 10 3 1 6 11:20 -9 10
L L D W L
10 10 2 2 6 11:20 -9 8
L L W L D
11 10 2 1 7 13:23 -10 7
L L L L L
12 10 0 1 9 3:18 -15 1
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)