🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
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Children's Mercy Park

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 57.3%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 50.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 52.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
57.3%
-
BTTS No
50.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
52.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-3
-
-
Probability Distribution
Sporting Kansas City Win 29.7%
Draw 13.1%
Vancouver Whitecaps Win 57.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sporting Kansas City0.97
Vancouver Whitecaps1.92
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City
WWDLW
25 GF / 57 GA
Vancouver Whitecaps Vancouver Whitecaps
WLDWL
50 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
0.93
Average Goals Scored
1.79
2.11
Average Goals Conceded
1.04
14
BTTS Yes
11
18
Over 2.5
13
3.71
Shots on Goal
6.17

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sporting Kansas City Sporting Kansas City 27 matches
Vancouver Whitecaps Vancouver Whitecaps 28 matches
Sporting Kansas City Statistic Vancouver Whitecaps
7 Wins 14
3 Draws 5
17 Losses 9
25 Goals For 50
57 Goals Against 29
0.93 Avg Goals Scored 1.79
2.11 Avg Goals Conceded 1.04
14 BTTS Yes 11
23 Over 1.5 21
18 Over 2.5 13
9 Over 3.5 8
2 Clean Sheets 11
11 Failed To Score 8
3.71 Shots On Goal 6.17
9.38 Total Shots 17.17
3.81 Corners 6.21
44% Ball Possession 58.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Vancouver Whitecaps's more proactive style and Sporting Kansas City's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Vancouver Whitecaps. Vancouver Whitecaps carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 37 points while Sporting Kansas City sit 15 on 15, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Sporting Kansas City have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sporting Kansas City expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Vancouver Whitecaps in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Vancouver Whitecaps having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Sporting Kansas City Analysis

With 15 points from 20 games and a place of 15, Sporting Kansas City still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 3 draws, and 13 defeats, and the 19:49 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Dejan Joveljić (4 goals), Manu García (2 goals), Calvin Harris (2 goals), with creative support from Manu García (3 assists), Calvin Harris (2 assists), Dejan Joveljić (1 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Vancouver Whitecaps Analysis

Vancouver Whitecaps arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 37 points after 19 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 11 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, while the 40:18 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Brian White (5 goals), Sebastian Berhalter (4 goals), Thomas Müller (3 goals), with creative support from Bruno Quiñonez (3 assists), Brian White (2 assists), Sebastian Berhalter (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 4 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Sporting Kansas City won 5 times, Vancouver Whitecaps won 8 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:19 from Sporting Kansas City's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.53 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (86.9%)
Predicted formations: Sporting Kansas City 4-4-2 / Vancouver Whitecaps 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Sporting Kansas City wins 5, draws 2, Vancouver Whitecaps wins 8
Last matches: Sporting Kansas City
23.08.26
Maj
Sporting Kansas City
Atlanta United FC
1
2
L
20.08.26
Maj
Sporting Kansas City
St. Louis City
1
1
D
16.08.26
Maj
Sporting Kansas City
Colorado Rapids
0
2
L
02.08.26
Maj
Sporting Kansas City
Houston Dynamo
0
2
L
26.07.26
Maj
Sporting Kansas City
Los Angeles FC
0
4
L
23.07.26
Maj
Sporting Kansas City
Minnesota United FC
2
1
W
17.07.26
Maj
Sporting Kansas City
St. Louis City
2
3
L
24.05.26
Maj
Sporting Kansas City
New York Red Bulls
1
2
L
17.05.26
Maj
Sporting Kansas City
Austin
2
1
W
14.05.26
Maj
Sporting Kansas City
Los Angeles Galaxy
3
1
W
10.05.26
Maj
Sporting Kansas City
Portland Timbers
0
6
L
02.05.26
Maj
Sporting Kansas City
Seattle Sounders
1
1
D
26.04.26
Maj
Sporting Kansas City
Chicago Fire
0
5
L
18.04.26
Maj
Sporting Kansas City
Vancouver Whitecaps
0
3
L
12.04.26
Maj
Sporting Kansas City
San Jose Earthquakes
1
3
L
04.04.26
Maj
Sporting Kansas City
Real Salt Lake
1
3
L
22.03.26
Maj
Sporting Kansas City
Colorado Rapids
1
4
L
15.03.26
Maj
Sporting Kansas City
Los Angeles Galaxy
2
1
W
08.03.26
Maj
Sporting Kansas City
San Diego
0
1
L
01.03.26
Maj
Sporting Kansas City
Columbus Crew
2
2
D
Last matches: Vancouver Whitecaps
23.08.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
FC Dallas
5
0
W
20.08.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
Houston Dynamo
0
1
L
17.08.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
Seattle Sounders
2
0
W
01.08.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
Los Angeles FC
1
1
D
26.07.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
Minnesota United FC
0
0
D
22.07.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
FC Cincinnati
3
4
L
24.05.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
San Diego
4
2
W
17.05.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
Houston Dynamo
0
1
L
14.05.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
FC Dallas
3
2
W
10.05.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
San Jose Earthquakes
1
1
D
03.05.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
Los Angeles Galaxy
1
1
D
26.04.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
Colorado Rapids
3
1
W
18.04.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
Sporting Kansas City
3
0
W
11.04.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
New York City FC
2
0
W
05.04.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
Portland Timbers
3
2
W
22.03.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
San Jose Earthquakes
0
1
L
19.03.26
CON
Vancouver Whitecaps
Seattle Sounders
1
2
L
15.03.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
Minnesota United FC
6
0
W
13.03.26
CON
Vancouver Whitecaps
Seattle Sounders
0
3
L
08.03.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
Portland Timbers
4
1
W
H2H: Sporting Kansas City vs Vancouver Whitecaps
18.04.26
H2H
Vancouver Whitecaps
Sporting Kansas City
3
0
L
21.09.25
H2H
Sporting Kansas City
Vancouver Whitecaps
0
2
L
27.07.25
H2H
Vancouver Whitecaps
Sporting Kansas City
3
0
L
18.07.24
H2H
Vancouver Whitecaps
Sporting Kansas City
2
1
L
30.05.24
H2H
Sporting Kansas City
Vancouver Whitecaps
1
2
L
02.07.23
H2H
Sporting Kansas City
Vancouver Whitecaps
3
0
W
04.06.23
H2H
Vancouver Whitecaps
Sporting Kansas City
1
1
D
29.05.22
H2H
Sporting Kansas City
Vancouver Whitecaps
0
1
L
03.04.22
H2H
Vancouver Whitecaps
Sporting Kansas City
1
0
L
20.11.21
H2H
Sporting Kansas City
Vancouver Whitecaps
3
1
W
18.10.21
H2H
Vancouver Whitecaps
Sporting Kansas City
2
1
L
16.05.21
H2H
Sporting Kansas City
Vancouver Whitecaps
3
0
W
27.07.20
H2H
Sporting Kansas City
Vancouver Whitecaps
0
0
D
01.03.20
H2H
Vancouver Whitecaps
Sporting Kansas City
1
3
W
14.07.19
H2H
Vancouver Whitecaps
Sporting Kansas City
0
3
W
Last matches: Sporting Kansas City
20.08.26
Maj
Sporting Kansas City
St. Louis City
1
1
D
02.08.26
Maj
Sporting Kansas City
Houston Dynamo
0
2
L
23.07.26
Maj
Sporting Kansas City
Minnesota United FC
2
1
W
24.05.26
Maj
Sporting Kansas City
New York Red Bulls
1
2
L
14.05.26
Maj
Sporting Kansas City
Los Angeles Galaxy
3
1
W
02.05.26
Maj
Sporting Kansas City
Seattle Sounders
1
1
D
12.04.26
Maj
Sporting Kansas City
San Jose Earthquakes
1
3
L
22.03.26
Maj
Sporting Kansas City
Colorado Rapids
1
4
L
08.03.26
Maj
Sporting Kansas City
San Diego
0
1
L
01.03.26
Maj
Sporting Kansas City
Columbus Crew
2
2
D
14.02.26
Fri
Sporting Kansas City
Austin
2
0
W
11.02.26
Fri
Sporting Kansas City
New York City FC
2
1
W
07.02.26
Fri
Sporting Kansas City
Minnesota United FC
0
3
L
31.01.26
Fri
Sporting Kansas City
Charlotte
0
1
L
24.01.26
Fri
Sporting Kansas City
Chicago Fire
0
1
L
17.01.26
Fri
Sporting Kansas City
FIU Panthers
1
0
W
H2H at home: Sporting Kansas City
21.09.25
H2H
Sporting Kansas City
Vancouver Whitecaps
0
2
L
30.05.24
H2H
Sporting Kansas City
Vancouver Whitecaps
1
2
L
02.07.23
H2H
Sporting Kansas City
Vancouver Whitecaps
3
0
W
29.05.22
H2H
Sporting Kansas City
Vancouver Whitecaps
0
1
L
20.11.21
H2H
Sporting Kansas City
Vancouver Whitecaps
3
1
W
16.05.21
H2H
Sporting Kansas City
Vancouver Whitecaps
3
0
W
27.07.20
H2H
Sporting Kansas City
Vancouver Whitecaps
0
0
D
Last matches: Vancouver Whitecaps
17.08.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
Seattle Sounders
2
0
W
26.07.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
Minnesota United FC
0
0
D
22.07.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
FC Cincinnati
3
4
L
24.05.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
San Diego
4
2
W
17.05.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
Houston Dynamo
0
1
L
14.05.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
FC Dallas
3
2
W
10.05.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
San Jose Earthquakes
1
1
D
03.05.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
Los Angeles Galaxy
1
1
D
19.03.26
CON
Vancouver Whitecaps
Seattle Sounders
1
2
L
08.03.26
Maj
Vancouver Whitecaps
Portland Timbers
4
1
W
19.02.26
CON
Vancouver Whitecaps
CS Cartagines
0
0
D
27.01.26
Fri
Vancouver Whitecaps
Polessya
0
2
L
H2H away: Vancouver Whitecaps
21.09.25
H2H
Sporting Kansas City
Vancouver Whitecaps
0
2
W
30.05.24
H2H
Sporting Kansas City
Vancouver Whitecaps
1
2
W
02.07.23
H2H
Sporting Kansas City
Vancouver Whitecaps
3
0
L
29.05.22
H2H
Sporting Kansas City
Vancouver Whitecaps
0
1
W
20.11.21
H2H
Sporting Kansas City
Vancouver Whitecaps
3
1
L
16.05.21
H2H
Sporting Kansas City
Vancouver Whitecaps
3
0
L
27.07.20
H2H
Sporting Kansas City
Vancouver Whitecaps
0
0
D

Standings

Western Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 20 12 4 4 45:18 27 40
W L W D D
2 21 12 2 7 30:26 4 38
L W W W W
3 22 10 5 7 36:22 14 35
D L L D W
4 21 10 3 8 39:33 6 33
L L L L D
5 21 9 6 6 38:34 4 33
L W W D L
6 21 9 6 6 30:27 3 33
W D W D W
7 21 9 1 11 30:28 2 28
L W W W L
8 20 8 4 8 34:32 2 28
L L D D L
9 21 8 4 9 38:37 1 28
D W L W W
10 21 7 7 7 27:29 -2 28
W L D D D
11 21 7 6 8 37:32 5 27
W L W D W
12 22 6 8 8 27:32 -5 26
D W L D D
13 20 7 4 9 22:27 -5 25
D L L L L
14 21 5 6 10 26:40 -14 21
D W L L L
15 21 4 3 14 20:51 -31 15
L D L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)