SPAIN SEGUNDA DIVISIóN
03.05.2026 14:15
El Molinón
Referee: J. Sanchez
Sporting Gijon
Match Timeline
AD Ceuta FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
25'
A. Cuenca
AD Ceuta FC
28'
K. de la Fuente · Assist: K. Zalazar
AD Ceuta FC
30'
G. Campos
Sporting Gijon
🟨
32'
Pablo Vázquez
Sporting Gijon
🟨
35'
Guille Rosas
Sporting Gijon
🟨
43'
Aboubacar Bassinga
AD Ceuta FC
🟨
45+3'
Marino Illescas
AD Ceuta FC
🔄
46'
D. Sanchez ↔ P. Garcia
Sporting Gijon
🔄
46'
P. Vazquez ↔ E. Curbelo
Sporting Gijon
🔄
46'
A. Bassinga ↔ S. Sanchez
AD Ceuta FC
🔄
62'
C. Gelabert Pina ↔ D. Queipo
Sporting Gijon
🔄
63'
K. de la Fuente ↔ M. Domenech
AD Ceuta FC
🔄
68'
↔ Matos Jose
AD Ceuta FC
🟨
69'
Justin Smith
Sporting Gijon
🟨
72'
Dani Queipo
Sporting Gijon
🔄
72'
M. Rodriguez ↔ A. Coundoul
Sporting Gijon
🟨
75'
Marcos Fernández
AD Ceuta FC
🔄
79'
↔ M. Conde
Sporting Gijon
🔄
90'
K. Zalazar ↔ J. Campana
AD Ceuta FC
🔄
90'
C. Redruello Nimo ↔ G. Almenara
AD Ceuta FC

Sporting Gijon vs AD Ceuta FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 86.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 35.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 32.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
86.1%
-
BTTS BTTS No
35.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
32.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
72.2%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Sporting Gijon Win 86.1%
Draw 8.4%
AD Ceuta FC Win 5.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sporting Gijon1.39
AD Ceuta FC1.2
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon
WWDLW
53 GF / 49 GA
AD Ceuta FC AD Ceuta FC
WLDWL
46 GF / 58 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
1.18
1.23
Average Goals Conceded
1.49
20
BTTS Yes
20
18
Over 2.5
21
4.28
Shots on Goal
3.47

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sporting Gijon Sporting Gijon 40 matches
AD Ceuta FC AD Ceuta FC 39 matches
Sporting Gijon Statistic AD Ceuta FC
17 Wins 15
7 Draws 9
16 Losses 15
53 Goals For 46
49 Goals Against 58
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 1.18
1.23 Avg Goals Conceded 1.49
20 BTTS Yes 20
25 Over 1.5 28
18 Over 2.5 21
11 Over 3.5 10
13 Clean Sheets 11
9 Failed To Score 12
4.28 Shots On Goal 3.47
11.26 Total Shots 10.29
4.64 Corners 3.97
44.8% Ball Possession 49.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with Sporting Gijon's more proactive style and AD Ceuta FC's more cautious structure likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors AD Ceuta FC. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sporting Gijon expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and AD Ceuta FC in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward AD Ceuta FC having the stronger overall control. Sporting Gijon have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors.

Sporting Gijon Analysis

Sporting Gijon sit 11 with 52 points after 37 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 15 wins, 7 draws, and 15 losses, together with goals at 50:47, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through J. Dubasin (15 goals), J. Otero (13 goals), C. Gelabert Pina (8 goals), with creative support from J. Otero (12 assists), G. Rosas (6 assists), J. Dubasin (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 10 wins, 6 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

AD Ceuta FC Analysis

AD Ceuta FC sit 12 with 51 points after 37 league matches. The record of 14 wins, 9 draws, and 14 defeats, together with a 44:57 goal balance, points toward poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Much of their attacking threat comes through M. Fernandez Sanchez (12 goals), Kuki Zalazar (6 goals), Jamelli (5 goals), with creative support from K. Kone (4 assists), Kuki Zalazar (3 assists), Jose Matos (3 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 6 draws, and 10 losses points toward a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Sporting Gijon won 1 times, AD Ceuta FC won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:2 from Sporting Gijon's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (94.4%)
Predicted formations: Sporting Gijon 4-2-3-1 / AD Ceuta FC 4-3-3
H2H summary: Sporting Gijon wins 1, draws 0, AD Ceuta FC wins 1

Standings

Segunda División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 42 25 7 10 90:61 29 82
W D W W W
2 42 22 11 9 65:44 21 77
L W W W W
3 42 22 8 12 81:63 18 74
L D W D W
4 42 21 10 11 75:52 23 73
W D D W W
5 42 20 13 9 57:40 17 73
D L W D W
6 42 20 12 10 70:51 19 72
L D W W D
7 42 20 12 10 48:33 15 72
W W W D D
8 42 19 10 13 52:40 12 67
L W L W L
9 42 18 7 17 60:54 6 61
W W W L L
10 42 17 10 15 57:61 -4 61
D L L W W
11 42 17 10 15 51:63 -12 61
W W L D W
12 42 16 11 15 56:55 1 59
L W W W W
13 42 16 10 16 62:54 8 58
L L L W L
14 42 12 12 18 50:56 -6 48
L L L L W
15 42 12 11 19 52:61 -9 47
D L D W D
16 42 11 13 18 43:51 -8 46
W L D L L
17 42 12 10 20 44:57 -13 46
L L L W L
18 42 11 10 21 41:61 -20 43
L W D L D
19 42 10 10 22 47:69 -22 40
L W D L L
20 42 9 11 22 41:63 -22 38
D L D L L
21 42 9 10 23 39:68 -29 37
D L W L D
22 42 8 12 22 35:59 -24 36
L D L L L
Promotion
Promotion Play-offs
Relegation