19.04.2026 16:00
Estadio Alberto Gallardo
Referee: Joel Alarcon, Peru
Sporting Cristal
Match Timeline
UTC Cajamarca
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
8'
F. Vizeu · Assist: Y. Yotun
Sporting Cristal
🟨
14'
David Dioses
UTC Cajamarca
🟨
19'
Adolfo Muñoz
UTC Cajamarca
🔄
46'
J. Gonzalez ↔ L. Sosa
Sporting Cristal
🔄
49'
L. Garro ↔ G. Paredes
UTC Cajamarca
🔄
57'
A. Figuera ↔ L. Arce
UTC Cajamarca
🔄
65'
F. Vizeu ↔ I. Avila
Sporting Cristal
🔄
65'
S. Gonzalez ↔ M. Castro
Sporting Cristal
⚽
68'
L. Iberico · Assist: Y. Yotun
Sporting Cristal
🔄
73'
D. Camacho ↔ M. Rasmussen
UTC Cajamarca
🔄
73'
M. de Jesus ↔ A. Arroyo
UTC Cajamarca
🔄
74'
A. Munoz ↔ J. Nunez
UTC Cajamarca
🔄
76'
R. Lutiger ↔ A. J. Posito Olazabal
Sporting Cristal
VAR
82'
Abdiel Arroyo
UTC Cajamarca
⚽
83'
A. Arroyo · Assist: M. Rasmussen
UTC Cajamarca
🔄
90+1'
Y. Yotun ↔ I. Wisdom
Sporting Cristal
⚽
90'
M. Castro · Assist: Y. Yotun
Sporting Cristal
⚽
90'
M. Lliuya
UTC Cajamarca

Sporting Cristal vs UTC Cajamarca Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 82.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 84.7%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 88.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
82.9%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
84.7%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
88.1%
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Sporting Cristal Win 42.7%
Draw 17.1%
UTC Cajamarca Win 40.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sporting Cristal1.4
UTC Cajamarca1.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal
WWDLW
25 GF / 20 GA
UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca
WLDWL
16 GF / 14 GA
Key Stats
1.56
Average Goals Scored
1.33
1.25
Average Goals Conceded
1.17
11
BTTS Yes
7
11
Over 2.5
5
4.73
Shots on Goal
5.2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 16 matches
UTC Cajamarca UTC Cajamarca 12 matches
Sporting Cristal Statistic UTC Cajamarca
6 Wins 5
4 Draws 4
6 Losses 3
25 Goals For 16
20 Goals Against 14
1.56 Avg Goals Scored 1.33
1.25 Avg Goals Conceded 1.17
11 BTTS Yes 7
13 Over 1.5 9
11 Over 2.5 5
5 Over 3.5 3
5 Clean Sheets 3
1 Failed To Score 2
4.73 Shots On Goal 5.2
14.67 Total Shots 13.1
5.4 Corners 4.5
59.3% Ball Possession 50.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors UTC Cajamarca. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sporting Cristal expected to line up in 4-3-3 and UTC Cajamarca in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward UTC Cajamarca having the stronger overall control. Sporting Cristal have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Sporting Cristal Analysis

Sporting Cristal approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 11 with 11 points from 9 matches. Their record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, together with goals at 16:13, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through L. Iberico (3 goals), Felipe Vizeu (2 goals), I. Avila (2 goals), with creative support from I. Avila (3 assists), Y. Yotun (2 assists), I. Wisdom (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show balanced attacking football.

UTC Cajamarca Analysis

UTC Cajamarca come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 5 with 15 points from 10 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 4 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, while the 12:11 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Marlon de Jesús (4 goals), B. Duarte (2 goals), D. Camacho (2 goals), with creative support from M. Lliuya (2 assists), Dylan Caro (2 assists), G. Paredes (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Sporting Cristal won 7 times, UTC Cajamarca won 2 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 31:19 from Sporting Cristal's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 12 matches, with an average of 3.57 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.9%)
Predicted formations: Sporting Cristal 4-3-3 / UTC Cajamarca 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Sporting Cristal wins 7, draws 5, UTC Cajamarca wins 2

Standings

Primera Division: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 16 8 3 44:18 26 56
W L D L D
2 27 14 7 6 43:31 12 49
L W D W W
3 27 14 6 7 39:24 15 48
W L W W W
4 27 13 7 7 45:29 16 46
D W W L D
5 27 14 3 10 40:38 2 45
W L W W L
6 26 12 5 9 35:44 -9 41
L L L L L
7 26 12 4 10 45:39 6 40
L W L L D
8 27 11 7 9 40:35 5 40
W L W W W
9 27 11 5 11 48:40 8 38
W W W L L
10 27 10 8 9 29:26 3 38
D W L W W
11 27 10 5 12 37:44 -7 35
W W W W L
12 27 9 7 11 42:52 -10 34
W W D W W
13 27 9 5 13 26:31 -5 32
L W L W W
14 27 7 9 11 35:38 -3 30
L L D L W
15 27 7 6 14 41:52 -11 27
L W L W L
16 27 6 7 14 29:42 -13 25
W L L L L
17 27 6 7 14 24:41 -17 25
L L L L W
18 27 4 8 15 32:50 -18 15
L L L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga 2