PERU PRIMERA DIVISIóN
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Estadio Alberto Gallardo

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.9%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
86.1%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Sporting Cristal Win 56.9%
Draw 5.3%
Deportivo Garcilaso Win 37.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sporting Cristal1.3
Deportivo Garcilaso1.37
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal
WWDLW
41 GF / 44 GA
Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso
WLDWL
21 GF / 18 GA
Key Stats
1.46
Average Goals Scored
1.24
1.57
Average Goals Conceded
1.06
19
BTTS Yes
9
18
Over 2.5
6
4.74
Shots on Goal
4.18

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sporting Cristal Sporting Cristal 28 matches
Deportivo Garcilaso Deportivo Garcilaso 17 matches
Sporting Cristal Statistic Deportivo Garcilaso
9 Wins 7
6 Draws 5
13 Losses 5
41 Goals For 21
44 Goals Against 18
1.46 Avg Goals Scored 1.24
1.57 Avg Goals Conceded 1.06
19 BTTS Yes 9
24 Over 1.5 10
18 Over 2.5 6
11 Over 3.5 4
6 Clean Sheets 6
4 Failed To Score 4
4.74 Shots On Goal 4.18
14.56 Total Shots 12
5.33 Corners 3.41
56.6% Ball Possession 47%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Deportivo Garcilaso's more proactive style and Sporting Cristal's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Deportivo Garcilaso. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Sporting Cristal expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Deportivo Garcilaso in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Deportivo Garcilaso having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Sporting Cristal Analysis

From their first 17 matches, Sporting Cristal have collected 19 points and now occupy 12 place in the table. The record of 5 wins, 4 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 28:30 goal balance, points toward poor form . Much of their attacking threat comes through Felipe Vizeu (5 goals), L. Iberico (4 goals), Gustavo Cazonatti (3 goals), with creative support from Y. Yotun (6 assists), I. Avila (3 assists), M. Castro (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, the record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Deportivo Garcilaso Analysis

Deportivo Garcilaso are currently 7 in the standings with 26 points from 17 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, while the 21:18 goal ratio supports the view of poor form . Going forward they rely heavily on B. Da Silva (6 goals), C. Olivares (5 goals), F. Arancibia (3 goals), with creative support from B. Da Silva (3 assists), F. Arancibia (3 assists), Kevin Sandoval (2 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Sporting Cristal won 5 times, Deportivo Garcilaso won 0 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:9 from Sporting Cristal's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 3.57 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.7%)
Predicted formations: Sporting Cristal 4-2-3-1 / Deportivo Garcilaso 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Sporting Cristal wins 5, draws 2, Deportivo Garcilaso wins 0
Last matches: Sporting Cristal
31.05.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
Cienciano
2
3
L
28.05.26
CON
Sporting Cristal
Cerro Porteno
0
2
L
24.05.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
ADT
2
1
W
21.05.26
CON
Sporting Cristal
Junior
2
3
L
15.05.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
FC Cajamarca
1
3
L
10.05.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
Alianza Lima
1
1
D
05.05.26
CON
Sporting Cristal
Palmeiras
0
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
Cusco
2
2
D
29.04.26
CON
Sporting Cristal
Junior
2
0
W
25.04.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
Comerciantes Unidos
0
1
L
22.04.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
Atletico Grau
1
4
L
19.04.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
UTC Cajamarca
3
2
W
16.04.26
CON
Sporting Cristal
Palmeiras
1
2
L
09.04.26
CON
Sporting Cristal
Cerro Porteno
1
0
W
03.04.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
UCV Moquegua
1
2
L
21.03.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
2
3
L
15.03.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
Sport Boys
3
0
W
11.03.26
CON
Sporting Cristal
Carabobo FC
1
2
L
07.03.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
Alianza Atletico
3
1
W
04.03.26
CON
Sporting Cristal
Carabobo FC
1
0
W
Last matches: Deportivo Garcilaso
30.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Juan Pablo II College
4
1
W
25.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Comerciantes Unidos
0
0
D
17.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
UTC Cajamarca
2
0
W
11.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Alianza Atletico
2
1
W
04.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1
0
W
28.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
FBC Melgar
1
0
W
23.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Universitario
1
4
L
18.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Sport Huancayo
1
2
L
04.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Sport Boys
3
2
W
22.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Atletico Grau
0
0
D
14.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Alianza Lima
1
1
D
08.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Cusco
0
1
L
28.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Cienciano
2
3
L
23.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
UCV Moquegua
0
1
L
14.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
ADT
1
0
W
09.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
FC Cajamarca
1
1
D
01.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Sporting Cristal
1
1
D
H2H: Sporting Cristal vs Deportivo Garcilaso
01.02.26
H2H
Deportivo Garcilaso
Sporting Cristal
1
1
D
19.10.25
H2H
Deportivo Garcilaso
Sporting Cristal
0
1
W
15.06.25
H2H
Sporting Cristal
Deportivo Garcilaso
3
2
W
17.09.24
H2H
Sporting Cristal
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
0
W
16.04.24
H2H
Deportivo Garcilaso
Sporting Cristal
2
3
W
13.08.23
H2H
Sporting Cristal
Deportivo Garcilaso
3
0
W
12.03.23
H2H
Deportivo Garcilaso
Sporting Cristal
4
4
D
Last matches: Sporting Cristal
24.05.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
ADT
2
1
W
05.05.26
CON
Sporting Cristal
Palmeiras
0
2
L
03.05.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
Cusco
2
2
D
29.04.26
CON
Sporting Cristal
Junior
2
0
W
19.04.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
UTC Cajamarca
3
2
W
09.04.26
CON
Sporting Cristal
Cerro Porteno
1
0
W
03.04.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
UCV Moquegua
1
2
L
15.03.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
Sport Boys
3
0
W
11.03.26
CON
Sporting Cristal
Carabobo FC
1
2
L
07.03.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
Alianza Atletico
3
1
W
25.02.26
CON
Sporting Cristal
2 de Mayo
0
0
D
21.02.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
Universitario
2
2
D
08.02.26
Pri
Sporting Cristal
FBC Melgar
1
2
L
25.01.26
Fri
Sporting Cristal
Universidad Catolica
3
1
W
H2H at home: Sporting Cristal
15.06.25
H2H
Sporting Cristal
Deportivo Garcilaso
3
2
W
17.09.24
H2H
Sporting Cristal
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
0
W
13.08.23
H2H
Sporting Cristal
Deportivo Garcilaso
3
0
W
Last matches: Deportivo Garcilaso
25.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Comerciantes Unidos
0
0
D
04.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Club Deportivo Los Chankas
1
0
W
23.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Universitario
1
4
L
18.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Sport Huancayo
1
2
L
22.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Atletico Grau
0
0
D
08.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
Cusco
0
1
L
23.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
UCV Moquegua
0
1
L
09.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Garcilaso
FC Cajamarca
1
1
D
H2H away: Deportivo Garcilaso
15.06.25
H2H
Sporting Cristal
Deportivo Garcilaso
3
2
L
17.09.24
H2H
Sporting Cristal
Deportivo Garcilaso
1
0
L
13.08.23
H2H
Sporting Cristal
Deportivo Garcilaso
3
0
L

Standings

Primera Division: Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 17 12 4 1 30:8 22 40
?
2 17 10 4 3 25:21 4 34
?
3 17 10 3 4 34:22 12 33
?
4 17 8 5 4 24:15 9 29
?
5 17 8 4 5 29:20 9 28
?
6 17 8 3 6 21:24 -3 27
?
7 17 7 5 5 21:18 3 26
?
8 17 5 6 6 20:18 2 21
?
9 17 5 6 6 18:20 -2 21
?
10 17 5 5 7 22:21 1 20
?
11 17 5 5 7 15:19 -4 20
?
12 17 5 4 8 28:30 -2 19
?
13 17 4 6 7 21:26 -5 18
?
14 17 5 3 9 17:24 -7 18
?
15 17 4 5 8 23:28 -5 17
?
16 17 4 4 9 12:18 -6 16
?
17 17 4 4 9 21:31 -10 16
?
18 17 4 4 9 22:40 -18 16
?
Promotion - Liga 1 (Play Offs)