ENGLAND PREMIER LEAGUE
14.09.2026 19:00
Elland Road

Leeds vs Newcastle Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 59.3%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
59.3%
-
BTTS Yes
75.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
79.1%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Leeds Win 59.3%
Draw 8.9%
Newcastle Win 31.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Leeds1.64
Newcastle1.16
Recent Form (Last 5)
Leeds Leeds
WWDLW
10 GF / 3 GA
Newcastle Newcastle
WLDWL
16 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
1.67
Average Goals Scored
1.6
0.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.6
3
BTTS Yes
8
1
Over 2.5
7
3.33
Shots on Goal
2.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Leeds Leeds 6 matches
Newcastle Newcastle 10 matches
Leeds Statistic Newcastle
3 Wins 3
3 Draws 4
0 Losses 3
10 Goals For 16
3 Goals Against 16
1.67 Avg Goals Scored 1.6
0.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.6
3 BTTS Yes 8
5 Over 1.5 10
1 Over 2.5 7
1 Over 3.5 4
3 Clean Sheets 2
0 Failed To Score 0
3.33 Shots On Goal 2.67
11 Total Shots 10.67
4.33 Corners 4.33
41.3% Ball Possession 46.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Leeds won 2 times, Newcastle won 4 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 14:16 from Leeds's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (91.1%)
Predicted formations: Leeds 3-4-2-1 / Newcastle 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Leeds wins 2, draws 5, Newcastle wins 4

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 3 3 0 0 7:2 5 9
W W W
2 3 3 0 0 6:1 5 9
W W W
3 3 2 1 0 3:0 3 7
D W W
4 3 2 0 1 8:7 1 6
L W W
5 3 1 2 0 5:2 3 5
D D W
6 3 1 2 0 6:4 2 5
W D D
7 3 1 2 0 6:4 2 5
D W D
8 3 1 2 0 5:3 2 5
D D W
9
Leeds Home
3 1 2 0 3:2 1 5
D D W
10 3 1 1 1 8:5 3 4
D L W
11 3 1 1 1 7:6 1 4
D W L
12 3 1 1 1 3:3 0 4
D W L
13 3 1 0 2 4:8 -4 3
W L L
14 3 1 0 2 4:8 -4 3
L L W
15 3 0 2 1 4:5 -1 2
D D L
16 3 0 2 1 2:3 -1 2
D D L
17 3 0 1 2 0:5 -5 1
D L L
18 3 0 1 2 0:5 -5 1
D L L
19 3 0 0 3 4:7 -3 0
L L L
20 3 0 0 3 0:5 -5 0
L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Relegation - Championship