PORTUGAL PRIMEIRA LIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio José Alvalade
Referee: F. Verissimo
Sporting CP
Match Timeline
Tondela
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
16'
Maranhão
Tondela
🟨
19'
Rony Lopes
Tondela
🟨
43'
Tiago Manso
Tondela
🟨
45+1'
Quaresma
Sporting CP
🔄
57'
G. Quenda ↔ Trincao
Sporting CP
🔄
57'
G. Vagiannidis ↔ S. Blopa
Sporting CP
🔄
57'
M. Ouattara ↔ A. van der Heide
Tondela
62'
L. Suarez · Assist: S. Blopa
Sporting CP
🔄
66'
Pedro Maranhao ↔ J. Hodge
Tondela
🔄
66'
H. Tavares ↔ M. Aiko
Tondela
🔄
75'
Pote ↔ Luis Guilherme
Sporting CP
🔄
75'
Rony Lopes ↔ Cicero
Tondela
🔄
75'
S. Sithole ↔ H. Felix
Tondela
🟨
78'
Salvador Blopa
Sporting CP
78'
J. Silva · Assist: G. Catamo
Sporting CP
🔄
86'
D. Braganca ↔ G. Kochorashvili
Sporting CP
🔄
87'
G. Catamo ↔ N. Santos
Sporting CP
90'
S. Blopa
Tondela
90'
Cicero · Assist: H. Felix
Tondela

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 90.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 61%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 30.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
90.1%
-
BTTS BTTS No
61%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
30.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Sporting CP Win 90.1%
Draw 0%
Tondela Win 9.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Sporting CP2.05
Tondela0.75
Recent Form (Last 5)
Sporting CP Sporting CP
WWDLW
97 GF / 35 GA
Tondela Tondela
WLDWL
21 GF / 50 GA
Key Stats
2.31
Average Goals Scored
0.7
0.83
Average Goals Conceded
1.67
23
BTTS Yes
10
29
Over 2.5
15
6.36
Shots on Goal
3.43

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Sporting CP Sporting CP 42 matches
Tondela Tondela 30 matches
Sporting CP Statistic Tondela
28 Wins 4
8 Draws 9
6 Losses 17
97 Goals For 21
35 Goals Against 50
2.31 Avg Goals Scored 0.7
0.83 Avg Goals Conceded 1.67
23 BTTS Yes 10
37 Over 1.5 20
29 Over 2.5 15
13 Over 3.5 8
17 Clean Sheets 5
3 Failed To Score 18
6.36 Shots On Goal 3.43
16.45 Total Shots 10.53
6.43 Corners 4.03
58.6% Ball Possession 43.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Sporting CP's more proactive style and Tondela's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Tondela. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Tondela arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Sporting CP arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 72 points compared to Tondela in 17 on 21, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

Sporting CP Analysis

Operating from 3 place with 72 points from 30 games, Sporting CP bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 22 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses, with a 75:20 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on L. Suarez (24 goals), P. Goncalves (13 goals), Geny Catamo (6 goals), with creative support from Trincao (11 assists), P. Goncalves (6 assists), L. Suarez (4 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have managed 11 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Tondela Analysis

With 21 points from 30 games and a place of 17, Tondela still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 4 wins, 9 draws, and 17 defeats with a 21:50 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Pedro Henryque (6 goals), Bebeto (2 goals), I. Cavaleiro (2 goals), with creative support from Rony Lopes (2 assists), Pedro Henryque (1 assists), Brayan Medina (1 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Sporting CP won 11 times, Tondela won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 33:10 from Sporting CP's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Sporting CP 4-2-3-1 / Tondela 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Sporting CP wins 11, draws 2, Tondela wins 2
Stats
Sporting CP Sporting CP
Tondela Tondela
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
1
5 Corner Kicks 5
16 Fouls 8
4 Offsides 2
64% Ball Possession 36%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Goal 2
6 Shots off Goal 6
5 Blocked Shots 1
15 Shots insidebox 6
1 Shots outsidebox 3
1 Goalkeeper Saves 4
708 Total passes 379
638 Passes accurate 307
1.67 expected_goals 1.35
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Sporting CP
Formation
Tondela
R. Silva
R. Silva
G. Vagiannidis
G. Vagiannidis
E. Quaresma
E. Quaresma
Z. Debast
Z. Debast
M. Araujo
M. Araujo
H. Morita
H. Morita
D. Braganca
D. Braganca
G. Catamo
🎯
G. Catamo
Pote
Pote
G. Quenda
G. Quenda
L. Suarez
L. Suarez
Bernardo
Bernardo
T. Manso
T. Manso
J. Silva
J. Silva
C. Marques
C. Marques
R. Conceicao
R. Conceicao
H. Tavares
H. Tavares
S. Sithole
S. Sithole
J. Rodriguez
J. Rodriguez
Pedro Maranhao
Pedro Maranhao
Rony Lopes
Rony Lopes
M. Ouattara
M. Ouattara
Sporting CP 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
R. Silva
G
13
G. Vagiannidis
↓ 57'
D
72
E. Quaresma
🟨 45+1'
D
6
Z. Debast
D
20
M. Araujo
D
5
H. Morita
M
23
D. Braganca
↓ 86'
M
10
G. Catamo
🎯 78' ↓ 87'
M
8
Pote
↓ 75'
M
7
G. Quenda
↓ 57'
M
97
L. Suarez
⚽ 62'
F
Substitutes
12
J. Virginia
G
14
G. Kochorashvili
↑ 86'
M
11
N. Santos
↑ 87'
D
26
O. Diomande
D
90
R. Nel
F
31
Luis Guilherme
↑ 75'
F
91
R. Mangas
D
17
Trincao
↑ 57'
F
70
S. Blopa
⚽ 90' 🎯 62' ↑ 57' 🟨 78'
D
Tondela 4-3-3
Starting XI
31
Bernardo
G
48
T. Manso
🟨 43'
D
44
J. Silva
⚽ 78'
D
4
C. Marques
D
27
R. Conceicao
D
8
H. Tavares
↓ 66'
M
15
S. Sithole
↓ 75'
M
32
J. Rodriguez
M
7
Pedro Maranhao
↓ 66' 🟨 16'
F
16
Rony Lopes
↓ 75' 🟨 19'
F
70
M. Ouattara
↓ 57'
Substitutes
1
G. Souza
G
5
J. Afonso
D
2
Bebeto
D
97
Cicero
⚽ 90' ↑ 75'
M
23
B. Kimpioka
F
10
J. Hodge
↑ 66'
M
90
M. Aiko
↑ 66'
F
26
A. van der Heide
↑ 57'
F
79
H. Felix
🎯 90' ↑ 75'
M
Last matches: Sporting CP
16.05.26
Pri
Sporting CP
GIL Vicente
3
0
W
11.05.26
Pri
Sporting CP
Rio Ave
4
1
W
04.05.26
Pri
Sporting CP
Guimaraes
5
1
W
26.04.26
Pri
Sporting CP
AVS
1
1
D
19.04.26
Pri
Sporting CP
Benfica
1
2
L
15.04.26
UEF
Sporting CP
Arsenal
0
0
D
11.04.26
Pri
Sporting CP
Estrela
1
0
W
07.04.26
UEF
Sporting CP
Arsenal
0
1
L
03.04.26
Pri
Sporting CP
Santa Clara
4
2
W
22.03.26
Pri
Sporting CP
Alverca
4
1
W
17.03.26
UEF
Sporting CP
Bodo/Glimt
5
0
W
11.03.26
UEF
Sporting CP
Bodo/Glimt
0
3
L
07.03.26
Pri
Sporting CP
SC Braga
2
2
D
27.02.26
Pri
Sporting CP
Estoril
3
0
W
21.02.26
Pri
Sporting CP
Moreirense
3
0
W
15.02.26
Pri
Sporting CP
Famalicao
1
0
W
09.02.26
Pri
Sporting CP
FC Porto
1
1
D
01.02.26
Pri
Sporting CP
Nacional
2
1
W
28.01.26
UEF
Sporting CP
Athletic Club
3
2
W
24.01.26
Pri
Sporting CP
Arouca
2
1
W
Last matches: Tondela
16.05.26
Pri
Tondela
Arouca
1
3
L
11.05.26
Pri
Tondela
Moreirense
2
0
W
03.05.26
Pri
Tondela
Casa Pia
1
0
W
25.04.26
Pri
Tondela
Nacional
0
2
L
19.04.26
Pri
Tondela
FC Porto
0
2
L
13.04.26
Pri
Tondela
GIL Vicente
2
2
D
03.04.26
Pri
Tondela
Guimaraes
0
5
L
21.03.26
Pri
Tondela
AVS
0
0
D
09.03.26
Pri
Tondela
Rio Ave
0
1
L
01.03.26
Pri
Tondela
Santa Clara
2
2
D
20.02.26
Pri
Tondela
Estrela
2
0
W
13.02.26
Pri
Tondela
Alverca
1
1
D
07.02.26
Pri
Tondela
Estoril
2
2
D
01.02.26
Pri
Tondela
Benfica
0
0
D
25.01.26
Pri
Tondela
Famalicao
0
3
L
18.01.26
Pri
Tondela
SC Braga
0
1
L
11.01.26
Pri
Tondela
Moreirense
0
1
L
03.01.26
Pri
Tondela
Arouca
3
1
W
21.12.25
Pri
Tondela
Casa Pia
1
2
L
15.12.25
Pri
Tondela
Nacional
1
3
L
H2H: Sporting CP vs Tondela
29.04.26
H2H
Sporting CP
Tondela
2
2
D
26.10.25
H2H
Tondela
Sporting CP
0
3
W
09.01.24
H2H
Sporting CP
Tondela
4
0
W
23.12.23
H2H
Tondela
Sporting CP
1
2
W
09.04.22
H2H
Tondela
Sporting CP
1
3
W
28.11.21
H2H
Sporting CP
Tondela
2
0
W
13.03.21
H2H
Tondela
Sporting CP
0
1
W
01.11.20
H2H
Sporting CP
Tondela
4
0
W
18.06.20
H2H
Sporting CP
Tondela
2
0
W
03.11.19
H2H
Tondela
Sporting CP
1
0
L
11.05.19
H2H
Sporting CP
Tondela
1
1
D
07.01.19
H2H
Tondela
Sporting CP
2
1
L
19.02.18
H2H
Tondela
Sporting CP
1
2
W
16.09.17
H2H
Sporting CP
Tondela
2
0
W
11.03.17
H2H
Tondela
Sporting CP
1
4
W
Last matches: Sporting CP
16.05.26
Pri
Sporting CP
GIL Vicente
3
0
W
04.05.26
Pri
Sporting CP
Guimaraes
5
1
W
19.04.26
Pri
Sporting CP
Benfica
1
2
L
07.04.26
UEF
Sporting CP
Arsenal
0
1
L
03.04.26
Pri
Sporting CP
Santa Clara
4
2
W
17.03.26
UEF
Sporting CP
Bodo/Glimt
5
0
W
27.02.26
Pri
Sporting CP
Estoril
3
0
W
15.02.26
Pri
Sporting CP
Famalicao
1
0
W
01.02.26
Pri
Sporting CP
Nacional
2
1
W
20.01.26
UEF
Sporting CP
Paris Saint Germain
2
1
W
16.01.26
Pri
Sporting CP
Casa Pia
3
0
W
28.12.25
Pri
Sporting CP
Rio Ave
4
0
W
13.12.25
Pri
Sporting CP
AVS
6
0
W
30.11.25
Pri
Sporting CP
Estrela
4
0
W
26.11.25
UEF
Sporting CP
Club Brugge KV
3
0
W
31.10.25
Pri
Sporting CP
Alverca
2
0
W
22.10.25
UEF
Sporting CP
Marseille
2
1
W
05.10.25
Pri
Sporting CP
SC Braga
1
1
D
22.09.25
Pri
Sporting CP
Moreirense
3
0
W
18.09.25
UEF
Sporting CP
Kairat Almaty
4
1
W
H2H at home: Sporting CP
29.04.26
H2H
Sporting CP
Tondela
2
2
D
09.01.24
H2H
Sporting CP
Tondela
4
0
W
28.11.21
H2H
Sporting CP
Tondela
2
0
W
01.11.20
H2H
Sporting CP
Tondela
4
0
W
18.06.20
H2H
Sporting CP
Tondela
2
0
W
11.05.19
H2H
Sporting CP
Tondela
1
1
D
16.09.17
H2H
Sporting CP
Tondela
2
0
W
Last matches: Tondela
16.05.26
Pri
Tondela
Arouca
1
3
L
03.05.26
Pri
Tondela
Casa Pia
1
0
W
19.04.26
Pri
Tondela
FC Porto
0
2
L
03.04.26
Pri
Tondela
Guimaraes
0
5
L
20.02.26
Pri
Tondela
Estrela
2
0
W
07.02.26
Pri
Tondela
Estoril
2
2
D
25.01.26
Pri
Tondela
Famalicao
0
3
L
11.01.26
Pri
Tondela
Moreirense
0
1
L
15.12.25
Pri
Tondela
Nacional
1
3
L
29.11.25
Pri
Tondela
GIL Vicente
1
0
W
02.11.25
Pri
Tondela
AVS
2
2
D
05.10.25
Pri
Tondela
Rio Ave
0
3
L
27.09.25
Pri
Tondela
Santa Clara
2
1
W
12.09.25
Pri
Tondela
Alverca
0
1
L
23.08.25
Pri
Tondela
Benfica
0
3
L
10.08.25
Pri
Tondela
SC Braga
0
3
L
H2H away: Tondela
29.04.26
H2H
Sporting CP
Tondela
2
2
D
09.01.24
H2H
Sporting CP
Tondela
4
0
L
28.11.21
H2H
Sporting CP
Tondela
2
0
L
01.11.20
H2H
Sporting CP
Tondela
4
0
L
18.06.20
H2H
Sporting CP
Tondela
2
0
L
11.05.19
H2H
Sporting CP
Tondela
1
1
D
16.09.17
H2H
Sporting CP
Tondela
2
0
L